Truist Financial Corporation (NYSE:TFC) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Mike Maguire: Yeah. No, Erika, don’t mind at all — the follow-up question here. So a couple of things, yes. I mean, look, we are according to our NII sensitivity disclosure, relatively neutral and I’d say based on where we are in the cycle and how in particular betas are performing, we’re probably even a little bit more liability sensitive to that then that and you see that in our results. We’re not currently contemplating a cut this year, and when we talked about our expectations in the middle of June, we were thinking about a cut as early as this year, we’ve updated our rate view to a — up 25 at the next meeting and then holding until probably mid ’24. So that probably is what’s influencing our revenue guide for the rest of this year and especially the NII component, but yeah, I mean, just to get to your question, if we saw it down 100, that would absolutely be a stabilizing force and would be a nice tailwind for our NII based on how we’re positioned.

Erika Najarian: And within guide — go ahead, Bill.

Bill Rogers: Hey, Erika. No, let me just add a couple of things, because we’re really talking about sort of betas and NII and we also need to shift talk about client and client activity, which is also an important part of it. So the tailwind that we’re creating about net, net deposit growth expansion, IRM, primacy with relationships and then on the pricing side, I mean we’re starting to see some of that pricing flexibility, particularly on the commercial side. So spread over SOFR probably 20 some plus basis points quarter-to-quarter. So the ability to be more relevant to our clients reposition our portfolio to reflect that be in higher returning, quite frankly taking some market share, where others are backing off, we’re leaning into some opportunities that have a greater return for. So in addition to all the betas and the other components, there’s just a lot of really good underlying client activity that’s tailwind.

Erika Najarian: Got it. And just a follow-up question and then I’ll step aside. Mike, I guess, let me ask this a different way within the down or up one to two in terms of adjusted revenue, what is the NII outlook there — embedded there?

Mike Maguire: Yeah. No problem. So, our expectation is that in the third quarter with a single rate hike — our — it will continue on a downward trajectory but at a much more moderate pace, call it half of what we saw in the second quarter. And I think you would expect the pressure to decline even further in the fourth quarter.

Erika Najarian: Perfect. Thank you.

Mike Maguire: Talking about NII, yeah. You got it.

Operator: Our next question comes from Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Betsy Graseck: Hi. Thanks so much. Just one quick follow-on to this discussion regarding the noninterest-bearing component. I know you mentioned earlier that you expect the noninterest-bearing to remix just to stabilize here and I’m just wondering in your NII outlook where are you expecting noninterest-bearing to trend and where do you feel that, that will stabilize? Thanks.

Mike Maguire: It’s been remixing at about 1% a quarter for us that was about $7 billion in average balance, and 5.5% in the quarter. I would expect that trend to continue at that rate. We spent a lot of time last quarter talking about where that might ultimately land. I think there’s a chance that that rate of a percent or whatever 5% to 6% a quarter does begin to moderate some here. Bill and I both talked about sort of maybe it’s a mid-20s terminal mix of DDA, but even now I think is in many respects and estimate and trying to rely on pre-pandemic and even pre — back to the pre-GFC proxy. So, Betsy, I don’t know that helps or not, but we are assuming that DDA will continue to decline in the third and the fourth quarter, again, the second quarter is a little tougher because of the tax payments and the likes.

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