Tricon Residential Inc. (NYSE:TCN) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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So I think there is a little bit too much emphasis is being placed on the supply, I have not found it to be a problem from the mom-and-pops.

Gary Berman: And then I would just add to that, with all the talk for build-to-rent and obviously we think it’s important long-term, it’s certainly a solution to add supply and we’ve got a very significant program. But with all the talk of it, it’s a tiny part of overall supply. Like if you look at total starts built to rent maybe is 3% or 4%, right? So, it’s not really having any impact on the broader market. And we are in an environment now because it’s become — obviously with really high rates and construction costs still staying fairly high. It’s very difficult to add supply, right? So, it’s not just, Kevin talked about his commentary on supply for mom-and-pops. In terms of new home supply, that’s probably down 15% year-over-year and obviously going into 2023 it’s going to be very difficult for the builders, whether it’s core sale or build-to-rent to add more supply.

Brad Heffern: Okay. Thank you.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Adam Kramer from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Adam Kramer: Yes. Hey guys, thanks for the question. I just wanted to ask about the January new lease growth, kind of, a nice acceleration there. I’m just wondering maybe kind of what drove that outlook, I’m sure there were some kind of normal seasonal patterns that maybe help drive that. But just wondering what drove that? And then maybe kind of any disclosure you can give on February new lease? I think would be helpful as well.

Gary Berman: Kevin, over to you.

Kevin Baldridge: Sure. Yes, usually what we have found or what I found is that there is a low that happens from Thanksgiving to Christmas and the year turns and as a little bit of pent-up supply that occurs. We also became more rent — have a rent bias, we felt that, so we started pushing rents harder than we have been. So, it’s a combination of the two. We went into Q4 work and we started dealing seasonality for the first time in two years. And so we really went more towards an occupancy bias. And if you remember at the time, we used to talk about recession, how deep is the recession is going to be. Interest rates were had climbed and so we went through an occupancy bias and that’s 98% and rents stripped down a little bit. We turned the year and we felt in January that push, and people coming back into the market, so we took advantage of that.

With that, our occupancy drift down a bit to get our rents and be able to harvest our loss to lease. Going into the quarter, I would say for Q1, we’re going to be probably around 12% for the quarter in new lease rent growth and mid-7% for blended, at the beginning of the year to get this pent-up demand. 12% new lease rent, but still phenomenal in my book. So that gives you some guidance.

Wissam Francis: Yes. And I think and Adam just that compares to our guidance. The midpoint of our guidance is 6.5% on renewals and 9.5% on new leases, right? So, 7% blended rent growth with 20% turnover. So already what we’re seeing out of the gate is we’re ahead of that. It’s a slow part of the season. So that’s really good news.

Adam Kramer: That’s really helpful, guys. Thanks so much for that color. Just maybe switching gears, same-store expense growth 6% to 7.5%, I believe. Just wondering if you could kind of provide any incremental details, whether it’s kind of property tax expense specifically how much you’re kind of budgeting for that — for growth for that versus maybe kind of everything else the bucket of everything else?

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