Tricon Residential Inc. (NYSE:TCN) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Nick Joseph: Thanks. That’s helpful. And then just on capital allocation, I know it was pretty minimal in the quarter in terms of the buybacks, but how are you thinking about those going forward, given current valuation and the sources and uses of capital in ’23?

Gary Berman: Yes. So, we’ve got a buyback in place, we currently bought about 1.5 million shares, will probably fulfill the existing buyback which is 2.5 million. But then after that, we’re probably inclined to really reserve our capital for future opportunities and growth. We don’t think it’s the right thing to do right now, is to return capital to shareholders in the way of higher dividends or to buy back our stock. We’re a smaller company, we have a great future, we have commitments in our JVs and we would not want to rob those opportunities and future growth by buying back our stock in spades. So that’s the way we’re thinking about it.

Nick Joseph: Thank you very much.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Mario Saric from Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Mario Saric: Hey, good morning. Just two quick ones on the guidance and then one on the acquisitions. In terms of — so I appreciate the color and the commentary you provided comparing a cap rate to the debt cost and how that drives capital allocation going forward. So is it fair to say within the guidance as it stands today, like you expected refi rate or debt cost rate in ’23 is kind of in a final three quarters, 6% range, which you listed on Slide 10.

Wissam Francis: Hey, Mario. Yes, that’s the expectation is given what’s happening in the capital markets and the debt financing rates today, we expect to refinance between 5.75% and 6%. Obviously, we’d hope to do better, but that’s where we’re guiding towards.

Mario Saric: Got it. Okay. And then within the same-store revenue growth of 5% to 9%, talk about the cap on renewals, 6% to 7%, what type of turnover are you thinking about at the midpoint?

Wissam Francis: Yes. We’re assuming occupancy of 97% from actually low to high in the guidance and turnover 20%, so we’re holding that constant. So, we’re assuming that the turnover hedge is up, it was obviously extremely low in Q4, but 15% for the year in 2022. So, we’re assuming that moves up to 20%. And obviously it’s accretive for us to have more turnover, is not what we’re trying to achieve, but that’s essentially what we’re modeling.

Mario Saric: Got it. Okay. Then my last question just in terms of the book value per share. And Gary, your comment on the extreme disconnect between the trading price and $14. So, what’s the implied SFR cap rate using the 23, expect same-store NOI, reflecting the $14?

Wissam Francis: Yes, I would say, I think, well it depends on how you measure it. I think if you’re using in place, you’re probably at a very high 4, close to 5, if you’re using 23 you’re probably in the low-fives. And I think that makes a lot of sense to us. And I think again that valuation is certainly underpinned by what we’re seeing in the market. If we wanted to go out and buy 2,000 homes a quarter today, you’d be looking at 5.25% cap rate. That’s one home at a time. And we think this type of business, once you’ve accumulated portfolio and those homes are stabilized deserves a premium. There is been a couple of transactions in the market. Those look like they’re trading based on high four, low five in place cap rates, obviously it’d be higher on a mark-to-market.

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