Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. (NYSE:TPH) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Douglas Bauer: I would say limited by the number of offerings, Jay. We’re, we’re looking at packages, packages, they’re few right now, but it’s, it’s not so much evaluation, it’s more in opportunities, the number.

Jay McCanless: Okay. And then thus far in October, you said you raised price in two-thirds of, of community starting 3Q. Do you feel like you have that same type of pricing power now or you had to slow it down a little bit, just given the 70 bp move we’ve seen in mortgage rates over the last few days or few weeks?

Douglas Bauer: So that, that pricing increasing was about $7,000 per house, it’s about 1%, so it’s very modest. And I would imagine, we’ll continue to keep it very modest, very, be very mindful of, of making sure our product is attainable price and payment is, is the name of the game, especially more on the entry level. But we’ve had a, a lot of success in our new community openings that we talked about earlier, and we’ll continue to see some price movement in those as well.

Jay McCanless: Okay. That’s great. That’s all I had. Thanks everyone.

Douglas Bauer: Thanks, Jay.

Operator: Our next question comes from Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Mike Dahl: Good morning, thanks for taking my questions. Just to go back to the kind of current environment as you noted some consumers may adjust the builders have the tools to adjust, as well to meet the market. We have heard some of your peers already leaning back into incentives when they’re talking about the trend from September into October, and your commentary sounds a little bit different. So I’m curious given your other comments around what happened last year. Do you have a view that, hey, it’s been a quick move over a short period of time. Let’s, let’s give it a little time to see where it was before we jumped to got on, on pulling incentive or the price lever or has pace just not fallen to levels that are kind of triggering for you at this point. And just maybe talk to that a little bit more because it does seem different than what some of your peers have described.

Douglas Bauer: Well, as, as we mentioned we continue to manage to our pace that we desire in our business plan. I think year-to-date Glenn, or, what about 3.3, 3.4 absorption. So our seasonal pace that we’re seeing right now is it just maybe a tick softer than what we saw back in 2019, yes. But we’ll, we’ll continue to use the tools to move into building our backlog for the Q1 and Q2. The other thing I’d, I’d point out is comparing peers is a little bit difficult in the sense that we have, what, 163 active communities and our focus on land acquisition is to be in, in the premium markets, A locations with A product. And frankly that trumps the B locations. And within every one of our markets, we’re seeing higher incentives from builders in, in locations that are different.

So there’s a lot more to that question and how you answer it and how you execute it. And, and one of the strengths that Tri Pointe adds is, is our land strategy that we start years ago when we buy land, and it’s, it’s proven out. I mean in Houston, which is one of the most competitive markets in the U.S., our land, our community locations have been selling very well, because it’s location. It’s the old adage, Mike, it’s location, location, location. So we can drive a better absorption, drive a better premium, and, and we’re not at the whims of a plane as much of the incentive gain possibly because our buyer profile, as Tom pointed out is very strong as well. So there is more detail behind that. You can’t just lump this all in one industry.

Mike Dahl: Yes, that’s fair. Makes sense. Helpful. And my second question is on the mortgage venture, I know, I know you will have more to say once it closes or when it’s closer to close. But is there any order of magnitude you could give us in terms of — maybe had you owned this outright in 2023 here is what the incremental contribution would be from a profitability standpoint, that’s one. And then two, from a more of an operational standpoint, I mean, presumably with the joint venture partner you have prepared yourself with all the same tools that the other builders who have wholly-owned ventures have in the current environment, but is there anything operationally where you think there could be a meaningful difference for you as a, as a wholly-owned versus JV?

Glenn Keeler: Hey, Mike, this is Glenn. To the first part of your question. We’ll, we’ll update you on more of the economics as we get further into 2024 and actually you’re up and running. But there should be a positive benefit to the Company, as we’ll have 100% of the economics versus right now being in a joint venture, obviously. But from an operational standpoint, I think it’s really all about the consumer, we’ll be able to control that process from end-to-end. And I think that will be the big advantage from us, from a customer experience perspective.

Mike Dahl: Okay. Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from Alex Barron with Housing Research Center. Please go ahead.

Alex Barron: Hey guys, good morning and good job on the quarter. I was hoping you could elaborate on the what — on the consumer, what, what your average statistics look like, meaning what’s the average income, what’s the average down payment, what’s your average FICO score that type of thing. And also wondering if you guys have an average interest rates after incentives that people are, are getting, how does that compare to market?

Tom Mitchell: Good morning, Alex. This is Tom. I’ll, I’ll take the first part and then Linda can talk about the, the second question there. But as I said, we’ve got an exceptional buyer profile and that largely breaks down with our average buyer having an average income of about $185,000, an average FICO score of 749, our average debt to income is right around 40%, average loan to value is about 81.5%. 79% of our buyers are using conventional financing. So we’ve got a really strong buyer pool and it’s very consistent as well.

Douglas Bauer: Yes. [Multiple Speakers] I’m going to add. Oh, go ahead, Linda.

Linda Mamet: Just to provide you some more information about the average interest rates for our buyers. As we mentioned with 86% of our fourth quarter backlog locked. Those buyers that have already closed or expected to close, have an average interest rate of 6.6%. And then obviously rates increased more at the end of the quarter and into October. So the loans that we locked in the third quarter have an average interest rate of 6.7%.

Alex Barron: Very helpful, thank you. Doug, you were going to say something?

Douglas Bauer: Yes, I was going to say the exact same thing Linda said.

Alex Barron: Great. Well, I appreciate you guys sharing that because I think it helps to highlight that it’s not your median income household buying your homes, which is something that I think people oftentimes don’t quite get. But anyway, the other question that I had was, what is your average build time and how much has that come down say versus a year ago. Because I’m kind of looking at your order trends which are obviously very different than the deliveries you’re having. So, I’m assuming all those homes obviously are coming at some point. I’m just trying to figure out what kind of a lag is there between typically order and the delivery these days?