Trex Company, Inc. (NYSE:TREX) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Ryan Merkel: Got it. Okay. That’s helpful. And then I know you said demand is steady. Can you just talk about sort of sell-through in 4Q, what you’re seeing here in 1Q and just contractor confidence heading into the selling season?

Bryan Fairbanks: Yes, we continue to see good demand in the fourth quarter. October and November were flat with prior year. We did see a bit of a fall off in December, a mid-single-digit type falloff. But moving into the new year, that’s improved where it’s roughly flat again with prior year. And talking with our contractors, backlogs have normalized. So rather than them being out between 8 and 12 weeks, modem are going to be between 4 and 6 weeks at this point. So our contractors are still feeling pretty good about the season.

Ryan Merkel: Good to hear. Thanks.

Bryan Fairbanks: Thanks, Ryan.

Operator: The Next question is from Joe Ahlersmeyer with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Joe Ahlersmeyer: Yes. Thanks for the question. Good afternoon, guys.

Bryan Fairbanks: Hi, Joe.

Joe Ahlersmeyer: So I want to be really clear on what is guidance and what is not here because Dennis, in your prepared remarks, I think you jumped right to the EBITDA margin when you’re talking about 2023 guidance John did a good job of laying out the 1Q. I won’t go into detail on the full year, but other than to say that it implies at $1 billion, down something in the mid-teens. I think, Brian, I heard you say mid-single digits is your sell-through assumption I guess the bottom line of my question is, can we just be really clear on is the $1 billion a production rate assumption, which €“ to which we’d have to add your assumptions around selling through of your inventory? Or is the $1 billion not a guide here? Like what is the $1 billion?

Bryan Fairbanks: Historically, we’ve provided one quarter out of revenue guide, and that’s what we’ve done this quarter. And also at the beginning of the year, we have provided a variety of different metrics, in this case, providing full year guidance on EBITDA, SG&A tax. So no, the $1 billion is not a full year guide. We’ve not moved to that. But I think given the changes in the marketplace, giving everybody here an understanding of the type of level that we’re producing to because if I were sitting in your chair, and we said we were producing to, let’s say, a $1.4 billion type rate. I might be a little bit concerned that the customer is not strong enough to support that kind of rate. So we believe that it’s important that we produce at a prudent rate while we have the ability to turn on production as we see the marketplace change.

Joe Ahlersmeyer: Very clear. Okay. And then your residential EBITDA margin in 2018 was around 31%. Could you maybe help reconcile or bridge that number to your 26% to 27% guidance? What sort of constitutes that 400 to 500 basis points difference. DNA doesn’t really factor in there. Mix, I’ve always assumed is margin neutral. You’re talking about having invested in productivity and having a highly trained workforce. So is there a way to think about what’s driving that gap into 2023 versus 2018?

Dennis Schemm: I think the biggest factor there, Joe, is really coming down to utilization of capacity. And that would basically drive this difference that you’re referencing at this point in time? We are operating at a level below our total capacity at this time.

Joe Ahlersmeyer: Got it. Very clear, thank you, guys.

Bryan Fairbanks: Thanks, Joe.

Operator: The next question is from Tim Wojs with Baird. Please go ahead.

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