TransUnion (NYSE:TRU) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Toni Kaplan: Thank you very much. I noticed that you reiterated the 2025 targets. And for adjusted EPS at $6 versus the midpoint of the ’23guidance, that would imply like a 30% CAGR from ’23 to ’25. So, maybe just talk about your confidence in achieving it. Like, I guess, clearly, you do believe it because you wouldn’t have reiterated it, but I mean, I just think it sounds sort of high, but I know you can €“ I know you clearly have reasons as to why you think you can achieve it. Thanks.

Christopher Cartwright: Yes, thanks for the question, Toni. Well, look, I mean, right now, we’re facing some challenging market conditions in lending verticals in developed markets, and I think it’s easy perhaps to get a bit more pessimistic about those things. But we’re talking about €“ we’ve got three full years to get there. We have a variety of paths to get there. We expect that over this period that market conditions generally are going to improve materially. And what we’ve seen is that our business has the potential to grow very rapidly coming out of downturns. We did so in the 2010 time frame. We did so again coming out of the pandemic where we posted 13% enterprise growth and again, there are a whole variety of different ways to get there.

I would point out that our results in this particular quarter generally are tempered a bit by volumes in fintech.That said, the reason we went into the detail on that space and our commentary is we wanted to €“ we wanted the market to understand just how growthful that business has been. It’s been a nice cherry on top of our overall lending portfolio. And we think that the growth coming from disruption in that space is going to continue. There’s just been a bit of a pause, some caution, as players try to understand market conditions and funding sources and the like. So I think we’re going to get disproportionate growth out of fintech, out of Neustar, out of the resurgence in Emerging Verticals and then India. India is becoming really material for us.

It grew by 1/3 last year. And while we don’t have that rate of growth in our plan, we’ve got a heck of a lot of upside and we’ve got a lot of ambitions to expand the number of markets that we play in, in India. So I mean, look, perhaps we revisit this at the end of the year. But at this point, I think, again, we can get there. There are a multitude of different paths. And then I think you were more focused on EPS, and I’m going to let Todd take that one.

Todd Cello: So from an EPS point of view, I mean, one of the significant drags that we’ve had is the rise in the €“ in LIBOR, which our debt is still tied to for the time being. So that has a rather significant impact on the EPS. In 2023, we had an impact of about $0.22. So think of it another way. Our €“ the guide on EPS would be up another 22% if interest rates were, like roughly flat $0.22. So, if you now think about that over the next three years, if you believe that interest rates decline, TransUnion and the rest of the market, we get a natural benefit there. So not an operating factor, but it wasn’t an operating factor that provided this headwind, as well.