TransAlta Corporation (NYSE:TAC) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Andrew Kuske: I guess the first question is for John and it ties into some of your last comments there. When we look at the Alberta power market, we’re having higher highs and lower lows, a very bifurcated market with maybe longer-term prices, sort an average down a bit. Some of that is reflected in your hedging program where ’24 for ’25, kind of flat on price, but you’ve got your gas hedges at a greater dollar value. Carbon prices obviously go up each year. All of that imply kind of lower margins. So I guess when you think about all that, is that kind of baseload hedging program to give business stability and certainly on a high degree of the cash flows and then you’re trying to capture around it for that sort of 25% of the market where there’s maybe greater volatility?

John Kousinioris: I think, Andrew, you’ve captured it sort of exactly right. That is the mindset. What’s interesting is, in the past, when we’ve talked about average hours, they were really meaningful, at least from my own perspective, because there was — the standard deviation around that was a little bit tighter, if you see what I’m saying, whereas now the path to the average is, what’s really going to matter. I think if you go to ’24, ’25, ’26, we’ve had these kind of discussions, I know with you in the past and others. So I think you’ve got it exactly right. It’s how do you, kind of derisk the base and create that senses of predictability and that is both a revenue item at a cost item with the gas that we’re procuring to kind of lock in margins as we go forward and then making sure that you’ve got fast responding length to be able to take advantage of the volatility when it comes and candidly, to create reliability for the grid here in the province of Alberta.

Andrew Kuske: And then maybe just on Pinnacle 1 and 2, and if I could maybe geek out a little bit on some of the op conditions of those units. It’s been a while since I’ve looked at them. But my recollection is sort of, like two to three minutes to full load on a ramp rate, 10 minutes for efficiency and about 8,000 heat rate. Is that all about broadly, right?

John Kousinioris: Yes. I think in terms of the ramp rates that you have, you’ve got it pretty much bang on the mark. I think their heat rate is probably a little bit higher. But at least from our own perspective, they’ll be running at times when the heat rate isn’t going to matter all that much from a pricing perspective, if you see what I mean, Andrew. What really matters is the speed with which they’re able to respond, and that’s our focus. The other thing I would say is they were an opportunistic purchase that we made probably two years ago now. They became available on the market and in anticipation of the evolution of the market, we picked them up for pennies on the dollar, let’s put it that way. So we’re shipping them up here now from the Pac Northwest and look forward to advancing them.

Andrew Kuske: So the pennies on the dollar, that sounds like very high ROIs.

John Kousinioris: That’s the goal.

Andrew Kuske: That’s a good goal to have.

Operator: Your next question comes from Naji Baydoun with iA Capital Markets.

Naji Baydoun: I just wanted to go back a bit to the topic of growth and CapEx pressures, just seeing a bit of sort of higher dollar investments on the wind side. I guess with things like WaterCharger and Pinnacle and maybe just a function of those specific assets in that specific market, but are you seeing sort of better risk-adjusted returns on the solar storage side maybe versus wind? And if that’s the case, what are some of the ways that maybe you can accelerate development on that side of the house seeing that how most of the pipeline today is made up of wind projects?

John Kousinioris: Yes, good morning, Naji. I would say if you were to kind of draw a spectrum of kind of returns, I would say that we would see probably the lower level of returns more in contracted solar, I would say, higher returns than contracted wind. And look, we have a particular expertise in wind. And for us, that’s not a core part of our business. And then it gets higher in the spectrum as you begin moving towards some of the peaking gas capacity that we’re looking at and then some of the battery storage that we would be looking. And I would say that even when we look at like Tent Mountain and some of the pump storage that we have, and the kind of returns we would expect for those projects would be significantly higher.

We do look at it from a portfolio perspective. There is a finite amount of storage and kind of peaking gas that we would put in because what’s critical, I think for those, kind of assets is to have those really strong optimization capabilities that you need to be able to extract value from them. We definitely have that in Alberta. So that is a focus for us. It’s not something that is pervasive in terms of all parts of North America. So we continue to focus on, I would say, our investments still oriented towards green. You’ll see the company continuing to execute on renewables as we go forward. We’ll be opportunistic. I think on natural gas investments that we think we can add value to as a company. And we think that we can get acceptable risk-adjusted returns for all of those types of projects as part of the portfolio that we’re building out.