TransAlta Corporation (NYSE:TAC) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

John Kousinioris: Yes. Look, when we talk internally about what we’re doing and when you look at the TransAlta Renewables acquisition, I mean, we’re spending quite a bit of money for that. It is growth from our perspective. We’re preserving cash flows from those assets. We’re not sort of explicitly saying that check, we’ve made the 2 gigawatt target. We continue to advance and trying to add incremental megawatts going forward, and we’re confident of moving that forward. The key criteria for us, is just making sure that the projects that we do create value for our shareholders. I mean if all we needed to do is hit 2 gigs, we could do it, but you may not get the kind of projects from the company that you’d want us to have. So we’re going to stay disciplined.

In terms of Investor Day, you will be seeing sort of gross. We’re not proposing to change the methodology or anything like that. It will be very much as we work through it similar to what you’re seeing now in terms of a long-range megawatt target, broad speaking, an annual pathway, EBITDA targets for the company and kind of our expectations on what the capital spend would be based on the best information we have at the time.

Operator: Your next question comes from Rob Hope with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Rob Hope: Just one for me. I want to think — I want to ask about conceptually, how you’re thinking about the peaker plant at Keephills. As we see Kineticor and Cascade and the Suncor project center service, is the expectation that kind of your coal to gas conversions could be seeing less utilization and won’t have that ramping capacity that will be required in a renewable heavy environment, so that this peaker investment is allowing you to use existing infrastructures and then interconnection to better meet the more volatile pricing environment?

John Kousinioris: Look, I think the way you characterized it is sort of an appropriate one as we see the evolution of the fleet. When you look at our coal to gas units, now we tend to describe them, I think you’ve heard us describe them as kind of Alberta peaking units. There’ll be periods of time where they’ll be running at relatively high-capacity factors, and there will be other periods of time that we will need them as much. But I think you’ve hit the nail on the head when you’re looking at not just Pinnacle 1 and 2, but even WaterCharger, for example, those are products that will be oriented towards meeting what we anticipate will be increasing intermittency in the grid and more significant volatility in terms of price movement.

So having fast response products will be critical, I think, going forward, both to meet the reliability that the grid is going to need, but also from our own perspective to create value for our shareholders. Different products under each of the different assets, some of them are more, what I would call, energy arbitrage assets. Some will be able to provide more ancillary services support, but we’re very much looking as it relates to Alberta kind of two pathways. One would be an overall renewable build out in time as the province continues to make its transition to decarbonization. And secondly, what are those kind of reliability, fast responding — sorry, capacity products that the province is going to need to ensure the stability of the grid.

So those are the two pathways that we’re looking at from an investment perspective.

Rob Hope: All right. Appreciate that. And actually maybe one follow-up. You did add some hedges in ’24 and ’25 that looks like to be a good pricing. But overall, how are you thinking about the kind of trade off of adding hedges in ’24 and ’25 versus where the forward curve is as well as just maintaining optionality?

John Kousinioris: Yes. Look, our hedging team is in there and feel, I think that the kind of pricing that we’re getting in, and I’ll talk mostly about ’24 because ’25 is a ways away and the market isn’t all that liquid. But we’re getting, I would say, some reasonable early liquidity in terms of 2024. I think we’re seeing prices that are in the high 90s right now that are there. The team is happy with what they’re seeing. They’re layering on. And just you have to remember, we also have our C&I business, which is a multiyear business which provides hedging that goes out, typically, I think, on average, around three years, I would say, Todd, going forward. So we continue to do what we’ve always done, and that is look at our internal modeling, where we think the fundamental price is going to be, how do we derisk elements of the fleet at the same time, leaving enough open length in the fleet to be able to capture kind of the volatility that we expect will increase.

I think as time goes by, it will become less about what you made in the 60% of the hours in the marketplace, but much more about how you did in that 25%, 30% of stronger hours in the market, and we’re really focused on that part of the market and shifting the capabilities of our fleet to be responsive there.

Operator: Your next question comes from Andrew Kuske with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.