Trane Technologies plc (NYSE:TT) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Chris Snyder: Thank you. Appreciate that. And for the follow up I wanted to ask on transport bookings, specifically in the Americas, which seem to drive a good chunk of the sequential slowdown. As we look forward, should we expect bookings there to pick up as the back half 2023 order bookings opened up. Thank you.

Christopher Kuehn: Hey, Chris, this is Chris, I’ll start with that answer. We’ve been selective with opening up the backlog in our Thermo King businesses now for the last couple of years. And what it means is we haven’t opened up the second half of 2023 orders at this time. We are talking with customers; we are getting strong insights from them on what units they need. We’re just not pricing that at this point at the end of the fourth quarter, and therefore it’s not making its way into bookings and or into backlog so. For the Americas business, we’re seeing that transport markets being slightly favorable. The trailer market being one to two points up on a year-over-year basis so very solid. Dave commented about the cadence throughout the year that may shift a little bit more into the second half, depending on how the OEMs get through their fleets and get their output up.

But I will tell you that really strong business, we have a lot of innovation in that business, it is a diversified business as well. And so while we’ve been able to outgrow the markets for the last several years, we have those plans to do it again in 2023.

David Regnery: Yes, Chris, the only thing I would add is if you look at the Thermo King Americas business on two-year stack, order rates are up over 40% and a very large backlog going into 2023. So it’s a business that has performed extremely well, in 2022, and will continue to outperform the markets in 2023.

Operator: We’ll take our next question from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

Joe Ritchie: Thanks. Good morning, guys. Doing great. Thanks. Dave, I really liked the way you teed up the backlog discussion earlier today. There’s been a lot of focus on order rates decelerating. And it seems like the trends in your business, particularly on the commercial HVAC side remain really strong. I know it’s probably too early, but as you kind of think about what’s occurring today from the stimulus perspective, nonroad construction, supply chain still a bit of an issue. I mean shouldn’t your backlog exit the year, like well above normal levels as you kind of think about the growth rate even just beyond 2023.

David Regnery: Yes, I think you’re spot on, Joe, I think a normal backlog for our business at the end of any years, probably in the $3 billion range. And we’ll end 2023 and enter 2024 with a backlog that could be $6 billion or greater. And we do — we believe our backlog will be elevated for a long period of time, which gives us a lot of visibility not only to future revenues, but also allows us to help our suppliers and to make sure they have plenty of visibility as to what our requirements are going to be.

Joe Ritchie: That’s great to hear. And I guess maybe my one follow-up is really to some commercial HVAC in EMEA, that was really strong this quarter, much stronger than we anticipated. Can you maybe just provide a little bit more color? What you’re seeing there specifically, is that heat pump demand? Like, what drove that growth rate this quarter?

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