Traeger, Inc. (NYSE:COOK) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Peter Keith: Okay. Yes, fair enough. Maybe we could talk more offline, because it seems like — I’m guessing you’re probably going to see continued benefits in 2024, that we want to think about. Maybe a separate question for you, would be on — you feel good about sell-through at retail. I guess, simplistically is sell-through up year-on-year? And how are we thinking about sell-through year-on-year, in the context of your full year guidance for 2023.

Dom Blosil: Yes. Good question. So I’d say, that in 2022, we weren’t — we were definitely comping slightly down, relative to the prior year. That I think peaked in Q3, but sequentially improved in Q4 in part due to our promotion or extended promotion at quality promotion. And I guess the only other layer I would add to that is even though there was a negative comp year-over-year, it was really not that dramatic, especially as you compare it to the decline in grill sales on a sell-in basis, right? And you can also see it in the market share data where Traeger was certainly down in kind of conjunction with a decline in the market, but it’s fairly disconnected from what you’re seeing in sell-through which just reinforces the point that this is more of a destocking issue than it is a demand issue.

And I think that because our market share effectively held steady, we’re sort of moving in accordance with the market and there’s still a healthy demand for our brand all things considered. In terms of moving — shifting forward to our outlook for 2023, I think the first thing I would say is, we’re not necessarily forecasting industry growth, we want to remain cautious there, but we do hope and sort of have a belief that there will be a rebound of growth in ’24 and beyond. And I think from a sell-through standpoint, we’re being conservative here, but it will still be disconnected from first half of year performance on grills, which will continue to be impacted by destocking even though we believe that sell-through trends will hold fairly steady and we’ll continue to signal nice demand from the consumer at least at retail.

Peter Keith: Okay. That’s helpful. I guess just to just clarify the sell-through holding steady. Is that just kind of you thinking about it sort of flattish year-on-year for the better part of 2023?

Dom Blosil: We’re not guiding to sell through. I think what I would just say there is that, yes, I think steady is probably the word we want to use.

Peter Keith: Okay. Fair enough. Thanks so much for the insights.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Joe Feldman with Telsey Advisory Group. Your line is now open.

Joe Feldman: Great. Thanks for taking the question guys. So I apologize, if I missed it with all the information you’ve given tonight. But with regard to the cost savings you said you’ve identified for 2023, I’m wondering, if you could share a little more color on maybe where that would be? And would it be to the same magnitude that we saw in 2022, that $20 million or maybe a little lower than that?

Dom Blosil: I won’t speak to the specific magnitude. But there are a variety of areas that we’ve evaluated as part of our budgeting process for ’23. And I think I’ll just say that if you recall back to some of our comments in kind of Q3, Q4, there was a moment in time in the back half of last year, where we made swift actions via restructuring and kind of rightsizing capacity, unwinding the Mexico relationship et cetera that are baked into that kind of run rate $20 million, as well as some incremental actions we took that are probably more temporary in nature with the second layer being okay this helps kind of bridge between now and when we start to plan for 2023, which will give us the opportunity to further explore areas in a more deliberate way versus a reactive way to drive efficiency across the P&L and really across the entire operation.

And so, if I want to give you some examples of things that we’ve evaluated and that we define as sort of core principles for how we’re budgeting and defining our operating plan for the year, it’s everything from kind of tightening gross to net dilution to how we rebalance capacity across the supply chain to ensure that capacity, whether it be on the manufacturing side or in other areas of the business is balanced with kind of the demand that we’re seeing and forecasting. Two, just continued efforts on the gross margin side with a task force that’s hyper focused on driving expansion opportunities, both near-term, long-term reshaping OpEx to ensure that it’s moving more closely in line with our long-term financial model and for principles there.

There’s some delayed initiatives, I mentioned earlier where — to the extent that we unlock incremental SG&A capacity based on revenue performance we’ll look to fund. But right now, they’re paused. I said the biggest one there as an example would be top of funnel. Again, we’ll continue to be focused more on middle and lower funnel and ultimately just general efficiency across kind of our fixed cost structure. I would just add though that, it’s not all about driving efficiency and sort of cost reductions, there are also key principles that we’re focused on to protect the long-term. And I’d say two to three examples of that are, one, ensuring that MEATER is properly funded and that our product growth engine is properly funded, right? We don’t want to starve or hinder growth in 2024 and beyond.

A lot of the actions that we’re taking this year are intended to set the right base that we can build on in 2024. And ultimately, we believe are necessary just given some of the dynamics and sort of right-sizing of demand trends and sort of sell-in based on these destocking efforts. So again, those are a handful of examples, but we have four principles that are ultimately guiding this and are baked into our current operating plan which does contribute to incremental savings on top of the $20 million that we spoke to early on.