Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ:TSCO) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Hal Lawton: Hey, good morning, Chris. And thanks for your question and participation in the call. I would just reiterate what we said in our prepared remarks, that we continue to see the consumer being discerning in their spend, particularly in discretionary. I mean, I think we’ve all seen the charts on PCE spend and the shift from goods to services. We’ve all been looked at how good spending is occurring and how that’s shifting across the various retail sectors. The sector we play in is the most sticky, the least impacted by that. You go look at electronics and appliances. You look at furniture. You look at home improvement. You look at all the other categories. They are all performing well below kind of our normal, our sector.

But nonetheless, we are seeing some modest impact from the discerning spend. We also said weather is not off to a great start for us in Q4. There’s a very strong El Nino pattern occurring. That typically is a warmer winter season. It’s 80 degrees this weekend in Boston. And then as you said, we’re lapping the strong storm from last year, which we recorded two points to. So we just think you put all that together and it’s appropriate to be prudent in our outlook for the fourth quarter in that kind of mid-single digit, low to mid-single digit current negative, and I don’t think it’s indicative of anything structural in the business. We see it as very transitory to the current moment. And as I said in my prepared remarks, we had active customer growth in Q3.

We had new customer growth in Q3. We had reactivated customer growth in Q3. Our customer satisfaction scores are at all-time highs. Our market share gains are very strong right now across the board. In PET, this past quarter, our share gains were as strong as they’ve been since the pandemic. And again, our underlying business is very strong. I’m confident that in the context of retail goods spending, even though the tide is shifting out for all, that we’re going to be standing tall amongst that.

Chris Horvers : Got it. And then my follow-up is just on the consumer broadly. It is a needs-based business. How is the consumer changing? Because I think if you look across retail right now, you’re not the only one who is seeing weakness, and it seems like it has deteriorated a bit. So are some of the things that you’re talking about in terms of units per transaction and the usage of credit, is your view that there has been some degree of deterioration in the consumer over the past six months or so?

Hal Lawton: I’d start by saying what is our value proposition? And our value proposition is to be that dependable supplier for life out here. And again, I’d reiterate, we’re seeing the customers in our stores. They are shopping us at record levels. That said, when they are shopping us, they are spending a little bit less items per basket, right, kind of to the tune of a low single-digit headwind, and they are pulling back a little bit on discretionary. Those are consistent themes that we’ve had really for the last few quarters. We haven’t really seen any acceleration in that. It’s really been more of a consistent theme. But again, for us, the seasonal weather, the seasonal businesses have been a huge departure from what our outlook and expectations have been all year long.

But nonetheless, I think you’re going to continue to see for the near term, the consumer spend continuing to shift to services from goods and kind of rebalancing. And I think you’re going to see discretionary retail businesses continuing to take the brunt of that as we turn the quarter of this year into next year.

Chris Horvers : Got it. Thanks very much.

Mary Winn Pilkington: As we’ve hit the top of the hour – Melissa [ph], as we’ve hit the top of the hour, I think this wraps up our call. So thank you everyone for joining us and I’m available for follow-up, and we’ll look forward to speaking to you on our fourth quarter earnings call.

Operator: This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

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