In this article, we will take a detailed look Top 10 Trending AI Stocks To Watch in November.
Amid soaring valuations of AI stocks, beginner investors keep wondering whether they are too late to the AI party. However, investing experts believe that opportunities abound in the AI space because of the nature of this technological revolution.
While talking to Wall Street Journal during the WSJ Tech Live Conference, venture capitalist Martin Casado, a general partner at Andreessen Horowitz, explained why he believes there is no such thing as “too late” when it comes to AI for now.
“When it comes to AI, it really feels like the marginal cost of language, reasoning and creation are going to zero. And if that’s the case, this is a supercycle. And if that’s the case, we’ve got decades. So there’s no “too late.” In that sense, we’re still very, very early.”
The AI revolution is quickly entering the phase where we are seeing real-life use cases as AI is helping companies significantly reduce costs and increase efficiency. According to a detailed report published by Benesch’s AI Commission, an AI-based tool that monitors real-time data from electronic medical records reduced unexpected deaths in hospitalized internal medicine patients by 26%.
Casado also talked about the usability of AI models for actual problem-solving:
“Everybody looks at the OpenAIs. But as far as value creation and integration, if you look at all the private companies, the smaller companies that are building their own smaller models, they are some of the fastest-growing companies we’ve seen in the history of the industry.”
For this article we picked 10 AI stocks trending on latest news and earnings. With each stock we have mentioned the number of hedge fund investors. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
Stocks
10. Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 85
Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management recently said the following about Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) during a program on CNBC:
“In the near term, the setup was all about timing, and Elon talked about two years before we see this. You make the adjustment, it is three-plus years away. Also, they didn’t talk about that all-important, more affordable Model 2. I think most people had expected that.
On the timing of the Cyber Cab, the fact that it is two years out—you have to figure it’s three years. Basically, an investor who is new or a near-term Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) investor really can’t bank on anything that’s RoboCab-related if you put a two-year time window on that. That was a disappointment. Second, the silence was deafening around them not talking about Model 2. My sense from being at the event and talking to people there is that the car is still clearly in the works. Timing on it is probably late ’25. Elon said it could be as early as this year, but call it late ’25.”
The Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) event was indeed short on details. Notably absent was the discussion of a “more affordable” model that Musk had previously mentioned to boost confidence in Tesla’s vehicle sales growth outlook.
What about the $30,000 price tag claim?
Musk has indicated that the Cybercab will have a production cost of approximately $30,000. Operating within the robotaxi fleet is projected to cost around $0.20 per mile. With a production cost of $30,000, the retail price of the Cybercab is likely to exceed this figure. For instance, if the Cybercab is priced at $30,000 per unit, that translates to $15,000 per seat. In contrast, the average price per passenger seat in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA)’s most affordable long-range RWD Model 3—factoring in full self-driving (FSD) licensing—is under $10,000 ($29,990 post-incentive vehicle price plus $8,000 for the FSD license, divided by four passenger seats). Regarding operational costs, while the Cybercab is expected to cost $0.20 per mile, charging the Model 3 is estimated at under $0.10 per mile, leaving a significant margin to cover maintenance and downtime.
There is a lot of hype around Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) robo taxis but many believe they will not be enough to fix the company’s long-term challenges.
What are these challenges?
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) product lineup is showing signs of stagnation, with over 95% of sales still coming from the Model 3 and Model Y. Meanwhile, competitors are rolling out more advanced models. Even Rivian’s CEO suggested Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) could be nearing market saturation for these models. According to Reuters, Tesla’s market share in Europe is slipping as legacy automakers like BMW post stronger sales. Chinese competitor BYD is also gaining ground in Europe, despite talk of tariffs.
ClearBridge Small Cap Value Strategy stated the following regarding Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“The strength in the stock market adds significantly to that enormous transfer of wealth, which one could argue is good for shareholders. But is it causal? That is, did the stock market do well because CEOs got large stock grants? Are the CEOs just the lucky recipients of a windfall when the market goes up and their employees perform well? Or do they require huge grants to do their jobs that no one else could possibly do as effectively?
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), and most of its shareholders, certainly think the latter is true. In 2018, Tesla’s board of directors crafted a pay package for CEO Elon Musk that would award him 12 tranches of 10-year, fixed-price options on 1% of company stock for every $50 billion in market cap the stock added. In total, the options would be for 304 million shares of the company at $23.34 a share. He would receive no other compensation, until or unless the board decided otherwise. Shareholders approved that pay package, and the stock added all that market cap and more, giving Musk the right to buy 10% of the company for $50 billion less than it was worth, adding to his existing 13% stake. Minority shareholders sued, and a court sided with them and expunged the package in January 2024. “The process leading to the approval of Musk’s compensation plan was deeply flawed,” ruled Judge Kathaleen McCormik of the Delaware Court of Chancery as part of a 200-page decision. It seemed like a long-awaited check on excessive compensation to one individual for the achievements of an entire company….” (Click here to read the full article)
9. Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 100
Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) and Synaptics (NASDAQ:SYNA) were downgraded by KeyBanc Capital Markets recently after the research firm concluded what it called a “mixed” supply chain check in the semiconductor space. Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) shares fell 1.2% in premarket trading, while Synaptics was off 1%. Analyst John Vinh cut Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) to Sector Weight from Overweight amid increased competition worries from Apple (AAPL), more competition in the smartphone market, and the belief that it would emerge as a leader in edge AI, which has not played out as previously thought.
Earlier this year, O’keefe Stevens Advisory explained its bullish thesis on the stock based on these two factors in its investor letter, saying:
“During the quarter, the A.I. rally broadened beyond the obvious players of Nvidia, AMD, and hyperscalers. QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM), a long-standing investment, is gaining recognition for integrating artificial intelligence into mobile phones. Qualcomm’s A.I. on-device capabilities enable real-time language translation, improved voice recognition, and sophisticated imaging techniques as A.I. becomes more integral to mobile experiences. Qualcomm benefits by leading the market in providing robust, efficient, and versatile A.I. solutions. A.I. could be the first technology advancement in several years to accelerate the smartphone replacement cycle as users desire these advanced capabilities.”
The company’s Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 Mobile Platform can power smartphones to process up to 10 billion parameters of generative AI models, effectively making them intelligent personal assistants.
What about AI PCs? Microsoft has announced that its Surface Laptop and Surface Pro will be powered by QUALCOMM Inc (NASDAQ:QCOM) chips. These devices can run several AI tasks without the internet. QUALCOMM Inc (NASDAQ:QCOM) is a key partner of Microsoft to deliver Copilot+ PCs.
8. Adobe Inc (NASDAQ:ADBE)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 107
Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) is considered among some of the most worthwhile risks among cloud software stocks, according to an extensive report by Piper Sandler. “We recommend large-cap growth investors lean into more risk and add to positions in Big ‘MAC’,” said Piper Sandler analysts, led by Brent Bracelin. The “Big Mac” in this case refers to MDB, Adobe Inc (NASDAQ:ADBE), and CRM. “These are off-consensus ideas still on average 26% below the 52-week highs with healthy product+margin catalysts and favorable risk-reward profiles,” Bracelin added. Adobe is in a similar position, as it appears ready to recover its losses this year due to its latest AI-powered offerings. “The new innovation product cycle is underappreciated, and could help reignite growth,” Piper Sandler noted.
Adobe Inc (NASDAQ:ADBE) has become a complex case for analysts who are still gauging whether Adobe would be a net beneficiary of the AI boom or a loser. On the one hand, Adobe Inc (NASDAQ:ADBE) is under threat with tons of AI tools good enough to make beginner-level designs, posts and videos for individuals or companies with low or no marketing budget. But on the other hand, the company is launching several AI-powered tools and integrating generative AI tools in its products that could boost its revenue in the future.
Daniel Newman, CEO of Futurum Group, said in a program on CNBC that the latest earnings show the effects of a macro slowdown but Adobe Inc (NASDAQ:ADBE) could benefit if companies decide to use the company’s AI tools to cut its reliance on human workers.
Polen Global Growth Strategy stated the following regarding Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“With Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE), in some ways, we see it as a microcosm of the market’s “shoot first, ask questions later” approach to categorizing AI winners and losers. In the early part of last year, Adobe came under pressure with a perception that generative AI (GenAI) would represent a material headwind to their suite of creative offerings. In short order, the company introduced its GenAI offering, Firefly, which shifted the narrative to Adobe as a beneficiary with a real opportunity to monetize GenAI in the near term. Earlier this year, that narrative was again challenged as the company reported a slight slowdown in revenue growth. Results in the most recent quarter were robust as the company raised its full-year forecast across a number of key metrics and showcased better-than-expected results.”
7. Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 130
Bill Baruch, President, Blue Line Futures, recently said while talking during a program on CNBC:
“It’s breaking out. The stock looks terrific. If you look outside of Nvidia, it’s been the best performing. It’s the diversification they have as well with the subscription business and the infrastructure building within that space. I think this name is going to continue to rise. We hold it not only in our main portfolio but in our concentrated portfolio.”
UBS recently published a list of stocks it believes will be industry leaders by 2030. UBS believes the next decade will favor companies that use technology to disrupt industries.
“We see these as leading disruptors in industries undergoing technological change, which should have a lasting impact,” said UBS analyst Hartmut Issel in a note.
The firm identified 29 companies it expects to deliver stronger earnings growth than the broader market (S&P 500, NASDAQ), supported by “positive, long-term trends,” according to Issel.
Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO) was among these stocks in the Enabling Tech category.
According to UBS, revenue for enabling tech could rise to $1.2T by 2025, or ~15% CAGR from FY20–25.
Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO) continues to be a leader in the AI ASCI and networking chips market. The company expects about $12 billion in AI revenue in fiscal 2024, which means 20% of its total revenue will come from AI and counting.
Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO) has 3nm AI ASIC chip deals with Alphabet and Meta in addition to many other tech giants aiming massive spending for AI hyperscaling.
The company’s Ethernet business is also strong amid partnerships with Arista Networks (ANET), while the company is also collaborating with Dell (DELL), Juniper (JNPR), and Super Micro (SMCI) in the networking business and other segments.
ClearBridge Large Cap Value Strategy stated the following regarding Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) in its Q3 2024 investor letter:
“In IT, we bought Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) as we believe the company has a long runway for growth with its custom silicon business, which should be more durable and less volatile than other components within the AI food chain. We also believe the acquisition of VMware creates another opportunity for steady, subscription-based durable growth that is still in its early innings. We believe the stock has an attractive risk/reward profile given the reasonable visibility toward mid-teens EPS growth at a low-20s P/E multiple. We made room for Broadcom by exiting Lam Research, whose shares we believed priced in a full recovery, while we grew increasingly concerned that China exposure might create an air pocket.”
6. Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 165
Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) reported strong quarterly results recently. The results show that the market has been ignoring the company’s key secondary businesses and the stock remains undervalued despite concerns around AI search and regulatory onslaught.
Google’s secondary ventures in AI, autonomous driving, and other areas are making solid progress, especially in the Waymo robotaxi segment. Currently, Google’s stock trades below 20 times forward earnings, offering potential upside as EPS and other financial metrics strengthen in coming years. For next year, the consensus EPS estimate sits around $9. However, Google has consistently beaten projections, delivering $7.54 in trailing twelve-month EPS compared to the expected $6.79—a roughly 11% outperformance.
With the 2025 EPS forecast at around $9, Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) could realistically achieve earnings closer to $10 if it maintains its historical outperformance rate. At a projected $10 EPS, Google’s forward P/E multiple would be approximately 17, a relatively low valuation for a diversified market leader.
What are the key drivers for Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL)?
The company remains on track to reach a $100 billion revenue run rate from YouTube Ads and Google Cloud by the end of 2024. In its autonomous driving division, Waymo has shown notable progress, with paid autonomous rides growing 200% quarter-over-quarter to 150,000 weekly rides as of late October, thanks to a fleet of 700 vehicles in service since August.
This growth is significant: Waymo vehicles now average about 30.6 autonomous rides per day—substantially higher than Uber’s average of 4.18 rides per driver daily, based on Uber’s 31 million daily trips and 7.4 million drivers last quarter. This performance underscores Waymo’s competitive edge in autonomous ride volume compared to traditional ride-hailing.
In the third quarter, Google’s Search & Other segment saw a 12.2% year-over-year revenue increase, rising from $44.03 billion to $49.39 billion. YouTube advertising also performed well, with revenue up 12.2% to $8.92 billion from $7.95 billion. Meanwhile, Google’s subscriptions, platforms, and devices revenue grew even more sharply, surging 27.8% from $8.34 billion to $10.66 billion.
Google Cloud has been expanding steadily, with revenue climbing from $13.06 billion in 2020 to $33.09 billion in 2023. Notably, Google Cloud turned profitable for the first time in 2023, posting $1.72 billion in operating profit—a significant improvement from a $5.61 billion loss in 2020. This segment’s performance continues to strengthen, with the latest quarterly revenue reaching $11.35 billion, up 35% from $8.41 billion in the same period last year.
Oakmark Select Fund stated the following regarding Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) in its Q3 2024 investor letter:
“Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) was the top detractor during the quarter. The U.S.-based communication services company’s stock price fell after a U.S. District Court ruled that Google violated Section 2 of the Sherman Act by maintaining a monopoly in general search engine services via exclusive distribution agreements. We think this case is unlikely to hurt Alphabet’s valuation over the long term as regulations previously en[1]acted in the European Union to address similar issues did not materially erode the company’s market share. We continue to believe that Alphabet is an attractive investment.”
5. NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 179
Ben Reitzes of Melius Research recently said during a program on CNBC:
“This is like when Apple did the iPhone, and if you gave up on Apple in year two or three of the iPhone, you missed a lot. So, this is really in the beginning, and what people are really skeptical about is the size. They’re already a huge market cap here, but there’s still room to go. And, obviously, Jensen is running around New York meeting investors all over the East Coast. He’s got a lot of good things to say, and I think you should listen to him.”
So, I think it’s trading at about one times P/E to growth for next year. That’s really attractive for a name like this, as long as the numbers are there. You know, obviously, if the direction is upwards to the estimates, that’s really attractive still. And I think each day you’ve got to walk in and say, what are our checks showing us, the research showing us from the bottom up, and it’s still there.”
Investors will be keenly watching NVDA when the company reports its latest quarterly results next month.
Nvidia’s declines after the Q2 results were more or less expected amid Blackwell delay reports confirmed by management. However, the delays were mainly due to a change in Blackwell GPU mask. That does not affect the main functional logic or design of the chip, according to analysts. While Blackwell has been delayed for a few months, it does not change the core growth thesis for Nvidia.
Nvidia is set to see huge growth on the back of the data center boom amid the AI wave.
At Nvidia’s GPU Technology Conference in March 2024, CEO Jensen Huang estimated annual spending on data center infrastructure at about $250 billion. Over the next decade, this could total between $1 trillion and $2 trillion, depending on how long this level of investment continues. During the same Q&A session, Bank of America’s Vivek Arya echoed this estimate, suggesting the total addressable market would fall in the $1-2 trillion range, particularly as countries invest in their own AI infrastructure. By the end of the decade, spending could be at the high end of that range.
Of course, Nvidia won’t dominate the entire $2 trillion opportunity, as it faces competition from companies like AMD and internally developed AI accelerators from Google, Amazon, and even Apple. Some analysts believe Nvidia’s data center market share between 2025 to 2029 will be over $950 billion—less than half of the total market—but still enough to make it the leader in the sector.
Vltava Fund stated the following regarding NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) in its Q3 2024 investor letter:
“Over the summer, we devoted a lot of time to studying the AI-related investment wave. This spans a wide range of sectors and our view could be very briefly summarised as follows: The first-tier beneficiaries are primarily companies in the semiconductor sector, NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) perhaps the most. That company is benefiting from the huge increase in investment by large technology companies to build enormous data centres. We know who NVIDIA’s customers are. They are companies like Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft. They are investing hundreds of billions of dollars into their AI capabilities. What is not entirely clear, however, is who are and will be the customers of NVIDIA’s customers, and, more importantly, when, and if, they will be able to come up with such huge demand for AI services that the profits from AI will justify and pay for the enormous investments all these companies have been making. The further we move away from the starting point that NVIDIA represents in our more broadly-reaching estimates, the lessreliable those estimates are.So far, we know just one thing for sure, and that is that investments in AI capabilities are ongoing and they are huge. They are not only bringing large demand to chipmakers and the semiconductor sector but to some other sectors as well. Indeed, building AI clusters also requires the construction of new semiconductor factories, new energy sources, and all the associated infrastructure. The numbers under consideration are incredibly high. It is possible that over the next decade the construction of AI centres will necessitate a 20% increase in US energy consumption. The investment required will be measured not in the hundreds of billions of dollars, but in an order of magnitude higher. Maybe two orders of magnitude.”
4. Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 184
Talking about a couple of positive analyst notes about Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), Jim Cramer said in a latest program on CNBC:
“Basically (analyst notes) saying, it ain’t that bad, so buy the stock. I would like more than that. I would say Apple, own it, trade it. I’m for the elongated cycle. They don’t have to have the 16 be perfect. They have to have demand over time. When you get the AI, people will want to upgrade.”
Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) recently posted decent quarterly results but concerns remain around its iPhone 16 sales and growth. Analysts are deeply divided on this stock. Morgan Stanley recently called Apple’s current position “challenging,” with KeyBanc and TF International Securities expressing concerns over iPhone sales volume. KeyBanc downgraded Apple to “underweight” with a $200 price target. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives remains bullish, reiterating his view that Apple could reach a $4 trillion market cap.
Recently, Apple reclaimed a top-5 position in China’s smartphone market, its 15.6% market share is still down from last year, especially against Huawei, which surged with over 40% growth. Xiaomi also continues to challenge Apple’s competitive edge. Notably, the iPhone 16 had only about three weeks of Q3 sales, yet didn’t lift Apple’s market share for the quarter, despite expectations for initial sales to be strong.
In the latest earnings call, Apple CEO Tim Cook highlighted new features for the iPhone, such as a more comfortable watch band and sleep apnea detection, none appeared to be major demand drivers for new customers.
Vltava Fund stated the following regarding Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) in its Q3 2024 investor letter:
“You probably have not missed the news that Warren Buffett has already sold half the stock from his largest public markets investment, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL). It was a phenomenal investment for Berkshire. Over the course of seven years or so, it brought a profit of well over USD 100 billion. Apple comprised a very large position within Berkshire’s public portfolio, and this was the reason we avoided Apple stock outright during that time. We considered our exposure to Apple through our holdings of Berkshire stock to be sufficient, and we ended up making a lot of money on it. There has been a great deal of speculation in the market about what Buffett’s sale of Apple signals regarding his view of the stock market. I think the reason for the sale is much simpler. Buffett probably considers Apple stock so expensive that he prefers to cash in at 20% less (after all, Berkshire must pay tax on its profits). He started selling in the first quarter of the year. When I was in Omaha for the general meeting in May, Buffett said he was still selling, and I expect he continued to do so in the third quarter. I have to say that, as a Berkshire shareholder, I am happy about the Apple sale. I think Berkshire’s management will find a better use for this money, as they always have in the past. It is quite likely that they already have a very specific idea about this. If that takes two or three years, it does not matter at all. This is not a race and, in the meantime, the risk of holding Berkshire Hathaway stock itself has been greatly reduced.”
3. Meta platforms (NASDAQ:META)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 219
Despite posting strong quarterly results, Meta shares fell as rising AI-related expenses yet again spooked investors about ROI. However, Meta platforms (NASDAQ:META) bulls believe Zuckerberg’s plan to keep spending on AI is totally justified.
Meta platforms (NASDAQ:META) is driving usage and ads revenue by improving its algorithms and user experience thanks to AI. Meta also reported strong adoption of its Llama AI model, attracting over 500 million monthly active users across its platforms. This progress positions Meta well for robust profitability in the next two years as it scales its AI infrastructure.
Meta’s advancements in Reels and WhatsApp are helping manage CapEx growth as the company strives to stay competitive in AI.
Meta’s clear monetization strategy for its generative AI, especially with Llama3, makes it a strong contender against rivals like OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Meta’s substantial user base of 3.3 billion provides a data and distribution edge that could capture a significant share of the GenAI market. Although short-term investors may be concerned about Meta’s increased AI spending, its forward P/E ratio of 24x, based on FY 2025 EPS estimates of $24.62, makes it the second-most affordable big tech stock, after Google, within its peer group (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google).
According to some estimates, Meta platforms (NASDAQ:META) is on track to potentially achieve $25-26 per share in EPS next year, slightly above the consensus estimate. Factors such as a strong U.S. economy, lower inflation, favorable online ad pricing, and AI investments could fuel earnings growth. If Meta’s valuation aligns with the industry average P/E of 26.6x, shares could reach over $600.
Rowan Street Capital stated the following regarding Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“We are pleased to report that Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META), our largest position in the fund, has delivered a remarkable performance, +450% since our November 2022 note. Our investment in Meta dates back to 2018, with an average cost basis of approximately $172 per share. Today, the stock trades around $535, reflecting a 3x return over the six-year holding period, equating to a 20% annualized return.
We would like to remind you that achieving these types of returns is never a straight path. From time to time, we might experience volatility — that’s simply part of the investment journey. In fact, wealth creation and volatility go hand in hand. There’s no escaping it; it’s the “price of admission” the market demands. If you take a look at the chart below, you’ll notice the drawdowns META stock has faced over the years, with 2022 standing out as a particularly challenging period, where the stock saw a 75% drop…” (Click here to read the full text)
2. Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 279
Microsoft shares recently fell after the company reported its latest quarterly results. Analysts believe most of the revenue beat came from PC segment, while investors were paying more attention to AI and Azure. Azure’s 34% growth met expectations, though guidance for next quarter fell short, projecting between 31% and 32% growth—1 percentage point below forecasts. This dip is attributed to delays in data center capacity from third-party providers, though Azure’s consumption trends remained steady.
Investors hoping for a rebound in IT spending were likely disappointed, as stable Azure consumption suggests no significant uptick in the second half of the year. In addition, the lower-than-expected Q2 guidance underscored tempered growth expectations.
AI services, however, contributed a robust 12 points to Azure’s growth, a steady continuation from the previous quarter. Microsoft’s management confirmed strong demand for AI services, although supply constraints are limiting further expansion. Microsoft anticipates AI-related revenues, including M365 Copilot and Azure AI, could reach $10 billion annually by next quarter—making it one of the fastest-growing segments in the company’s history.
Malcolm Ethridge, Capital Area Planning Group managing partner, while talking to CNBC in a latest program, explained why he’s bullish on MSFT and other big tech stocks.
Considering we don’t know exactly where we are in that Gartner Hype Cycle—have we reached that trough of disillusionment? We really don’t know. I think that leaves a lot of opportunities for positives, even if it’s not in the MAG 7, hyperscalers, megacap tech, or whatever other name we use to describe them.
If we just consider the fact that names like Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon, and Alphabet have been investing billions of dollars over the last few years into generating large language models that can create technology off the backside of them, we have yet to even really understand what the true value of those is. So, I think there’s a lot of intrinsic value still trapped inside each of these companies that owns one of those large language models.
DA Davidson recently downgraded the stock, with analyst Gil Luria saying the company’s advantages in the cloud and code generation sectors have diminished, making it difficult for Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) to maintain its previous performance. He highlighted that Amazon Web Services is now nearly matching Azure in cloud growth, while Google Cloud is also gaining momentum. Luria downgraded Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) from Buy to Neutral, maintaining a $475 price target. He pointed out that Amazon and Google have made significant strides in integrating custom silicon into their data centers, putting Microsoft at a disadvantage. This reliance on NVIDIA (NVDA) for technology means Microsoft is effectively transferring wealth from its shareholders to NVIDIA’s, according to Luria.
Following a year of margin expansion, Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) is now projecting a decline in operating margins due to increased data center capital expenditures rising from 12% to 21% of revenue. This increase outpaces that of Amazon and Google, largely due to Microsoft’s dependence on NVIDIA. Luria said that if Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) continues to overinvest at the current rate, margins could drop by at least 1 percentage point cumulatively, potentially necessitating layoffs of around 10,000 employees each year to maintain margins. The analyst also thinks Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) has lost much of its edge with GitHub Copilot, as Amazon and GitLab (GTLB) have caught up in capabilities.
The concerns voiced by the analyst are not unfounded. Microsoft is also losing its edge in open-source models as enterprises shift toward cost-effective, transparent open-source solutions like Meta’s Llama 3.1.
Generation Investment Management Global Equity Strategy stated the following regarding Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) in its Q2 2024 investor letter:
“Generative AI’s hunger for power has increased disproportionately with its intelligence. According to one estimate, OpenAI’s GPT-4 required 50 gigawatt hours (GWh) of electricity to train, much more than the 1.3 GWh needed for GPT-3.3 And then AI requires even more power when it is put to use (so called ‘inference’). Some of the latest trends worry us. Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) appears to be slipping in its ESG goals, with its greenhouse gas emissions rising again last year, as it invests in becoming a big player in AI. It is struggling in particular to curb its Scope 3 emissions in the capital goods category – nowhere more so than in the activity associated with the construction of data centres: both the embedded carbon in construction materials like steel and cement, as well as the emissions from the manufacturing of hardware components such as semiconductors, servers and racks. Google’s emissions have risen by close to 50% in the past five years.
We feel it is worth dwelling on Microsoft for a few moments, since we suspect you will be hearing a lot more about the relationship between AI and sustainability in the coming months. The bottom line is that we continue to see Microsoft as a sustainability leader. In the case of Scope 2 emissions, the company covers 100% of its electricity use with purchases of renewable energy. Crucially, though, the majority of this green energy is directly sourced via power purchase agreements, which bring new renewable capacity to the grid. Microsoft is also committed to operating 24/7 on renewable power by 2030, a policy that will help bring energy storage onto the grid as well…” (Click here to read the full text)
1. Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 308
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) threw it out of the park with its latest quarterly results amid strong Cloud growth. Amazon Web Services is generated $27.5 billion in revenue, marking a 19% year-over-year increase. The segment’s operating income is expanding at nearly 2.5 times the rate of its revenue growth, boosting Amazon’s overall operating income. At this pace, AWS is on track to deliver $110 billion in annualized revenue. If it maintains its ~20% growth rate, AWS could reach $125-130 billion in revenue in FY 2025.
For the ongoing quarter, Amazon expects revenue between $181.5 billion and $188.5 billion, implying growth up to 11%. Amazon’s stock currently trades at a forward P/E of 32.9, higher than the big tech average of 25.5. If Amazon grows its earnings per share (EPS) by an average of 25% annually over the next three years, it could achieve an EPS of around $9.25 by FY 2027 (up from an estimated $4.74 in FY 2024). Applying a 35x P/E ratio in line with Amazon’s historical average suggests a fair stock value of over $300. The primary catalyst for this target would be AWS’s robust operating income growth.
Alphyn Capital Management stated the following regarding Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) in its Q3 2024 investor letter:
“Amazon.com, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:AMZN) continued growth is driven by its strong performance in AWS and advertising, which grew 19% and 20%, respectively. E-commerce growth moderated to 9.3%, likely due to softer consumer demand.
In previous letters, I mentioned how Amazon’s heavy investments in logistics and fulfillment suppressed margins for some time, but the company is now reaping the rewards of those earlier expenditures. European operations have been profitable for the second consecutive quarter, while North American operating margins have risen from pandemic lows to 5.3%. A key ongoing area of focus for Amazon has been reducing the “cost to serve”; this is beginning to show tangible benefits. In 2023, Amazon undertook a “regionalization” strategy, which divided the U.S. into eight distinct regions for fulfillment and transportation, with corresponding distribution centers in each. As I learned from an expert interview done by InPractise, “regionalization” has resulted in estimated shipping expenses dropping from $4.76 per unit to $4.50, and they are now approximately $4.26, with potential reductions of 2-3% annually. Interestingly, Amazon leaned on its third-party vendors (3P) to finance much of this strategy. It did so by requiring 3P vendors ship inventory to the multiple regional distribution centers, instead of to a single location as they used to do. Moreover, Amazon imposed penalties for failing to meet strict minimum and maximum quantities. In this way, Amazon used 3P inventory to expand its distribution capacity by around 24 million square feet, much of which it could use for its own 1P inventory. Clever strategy, but one wonders if this raises the risk of an eventual vendor backlash due to the added financial and logistical pressures on 3P sellers.
Like Alphabet, Amazon is investing heavily in its AWS infrastructure to support its growing AI business. In the first half of the year, the company spent $30.5 billion on capital expenditures, with plans to exceed that in the year’s second half. When questioned about this during the earnings call, CEO Andy Jassy emphasized that they are seeing significant demand for AI-related services, which he believes will become a “very large” business for Amazon.”
While we acknowledge the potential of Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN), our conviction lies in the belief that under the radar AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than AMZN but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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