4. Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Number of Hedge Funds Investors: 99
Itay Michaeli, TD Cowen analyst, recently explained in a program on CNBC his rationale behind a $388 price target on Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). He also has a Buy rating on the stock that is down 40% so far this year.
“Tesla is always a highly debated stock, but what we find really helps it work are sentiment-shifting catalysts. The stock is down about 50% from its highs, and while the upcoming quarter will be challenging—that’s pretty widely known—we see several potentially significant catalysts beyond the first quarter, both on the EV and AV sides. The setup actually reminds us of last year when the stock faced a lot of pressure in the first half before sentiment improved in the second half. We see a similar pattern here and want to be positioned for these potential catalysts when they come.”
Analysts are looking beyond Elon Musk’s big claims and digesting the harsh reality facing the company. Tesla’s sales are falling all over the world despite the broader industry growth. For example, in California, the largest U.S. market for electric vehicle adoption and sales, Tesla sales fell about 12% year over year in 2024, causing its market share to drop from 60.1% in 2023 to 52.5% in 2024. Was it because Californians are buying fewer EVs? No. Californians purchased more than 2 million electric cars during the year, almost double when compared to the past two years.
Things aren’t looking good for Tesla in Europe, too. For example, in Germany, Tesla delivered just 1,429 new cars in February, down 76% from the same month last year. In contrast, battery-electric vehicle (BEV) registrations surged 30.8% during the month.
Tesla Inc’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) product lineup is showing signs of stagnation, with over 95% of sales still coming from the Model 3 and Model Y. Meanwhile, competitors are rolling out more advanced models. According to Reuters, Tesla’s market share in Europe is slipping as legacy automakers like BMW post stronger sales. Chinese competitor BYD is also gaining ground in Europe, despite talk of tariffs.
Polen Focus Growth Strategy stated the following regarding Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) in its Q4 2024 investor letter:
“The largest relative detractors in the quarter were Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) (not owned), Thermo Fisher Scientific, and Broadcom (not owned). We’ve spoken at length about our rationale for not owning Tesla. The stock enjoyed a 54% return during the quarter, with effectively all of the share price performance strength coming in the post-election period, as the market expressed a positive view on Elon Musk’s prominent role in the incoming Trump administration and its potential implications for Tesla. While we agree this development should be a net positive for Tesla and recognize the company’s interesting future prospects for autonomous driving and humanoid robots, its current valuation demands that shareholders pay primarily for potential innovations that have yet to materialize, with uncertain risks and timelines, presenting a different type of risk profile than we are comfortable with. Today, Tesla is an automobile manufacturer limited to the higher-income segment and is increasingly challenged to sell vehicles when interest rates are not zero. As such, we continue to question the company’s long-term growth profile, its ability to scale a large robotaxi service (which seems to be the source of euphoria in Tesla shares), and its corporate governance.”
