In this article, we will take a detailed look at the Top 10 Overbought AI Stocks in 2024.
The second half of 2024 is here and rate cuts from the Federal Reserve remain elusive, with warnings about valuations and AI-led market hype growing louder. A number of notable Wall Street analysts have recently warned that the markets remains more concentrated than ever where just a few stocks account for most of the gains, thanks to their dominance in the AI industry. Many also believe the market is up for a correction as it has entered the overbought territory. Financial services company BTIG recently said in a report that the world’s fifth-largest exchange-traded fund by assets under management (AUM), QQQ Trust Series 1, now trades “well into” overbought territory based on its Relative Strength Index technical indicator. QQQ tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index and it’s not surprising to see the ETF showing signs of being overbought as more and more investors pile into mega-cap tech stocks in order to ride the AI bandwagon.
For this article we scanned the holdings of the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF and picked top technology holdings of the fund with higher Relative Strength Index (RSI) values. Usually, an RSI value of 60 and above shows a stock is overbought. We have also mentioned the number of hedge fund investors with these stocks. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
10. Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 74
Despite having lost about 28% in value over the past one year, Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) has a forward P/E of 74 while its 14-day RSI value is 54, worse than 76.6% of 1342 companies in the Vehicles & Parts industry, according to data from GuruFocus. Tesla is a key part of the QQQ ETF, which according to BTIG has entered the overbought territory based on its RSI value.
However, some Wall Street analysts believe Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is undervalued.
Cathie Wood recently set a $2600 price target on Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) for 2029, which present a whopping 1300% upside potential from the current levels. Wood thinks the robotaxi project has the potential to deliver $8 to $10 trillion in revenue by 2030.
However, many believe Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) won’t be able to live up to the hype around its robotaxi plans. Each robotaxi is expected to have a price target of around $150K to $200K, with some estimates suggesting Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) would need about $35 billion to develop a global feet of such cars. Amid inflation and lack of preference for electric cars, American families will probably stay away from spending a fortune on robotaxis, which could cause a blow to Tesla Inc’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) plans in the future.
Baron Partners Fund stated the following regarding Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“The vast majority of the Fund’s underperformance this quarter stemmed from the Fund’s 10-year investment in Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA). Tesla’s shares fell 29.3% during the period and detracted 13.41% from the Fund’s first quarter results. Although Tesla has contributed importantly to the Fund’s performance since 2014, on occasion it has detracted from quarterly performance. In previous instances when Tesla shares have underperformed during a discrete period, they have shortly afterwards reflected the strong growth of the underlying business and the stock has appreciated considerably. We believe that will be the case again, although cannot guarantee it.
A significant decline also occurred at the end of 2022. In that instance, investors had become concerned about a host of external factors. Investors believed the company founder, visionary, and CEO Elon Musk was distracted by his acquisition of Twitter. They also believed a weak Chinese economy emerging from COVID and U.S. government policies would curtail the purchases of Tesla vehicles. These fears proved to be overblown. As the company achieved milestones in the succeeding year, the stock subsequently doubled over the next 12 months…” (Click here to read the full text)
9. Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 107
Netflix Inc’s (NASDAQ:NFLX) 14-day RSI value is 70, entering the overbought territory. The stock is a key part of the QQQ ETF, which has entered the overbought territory according to BTIG.
However, there are some analysts who are recommending NFLX in the current environment.
Barclays recommends Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) as a stock to offset risks in the concentrated market where most of the gains are coming from AI stocks. Barclays isn’t alone. Evercore ISI recently said in a note that Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) is in “the strongest position financially, fundamentally and competitively that we have ever seen.” Evercore reiterated an Outperform rating on the stock and increased its price target to $700 from $650.
Sensing major threats amid rising competition in the market from Disney Plus, Peacock (CMCSA), Max. Amazon and YouTube, Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) has fired all engines and is using a multi-pronged approach to thrive. Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) is expanding into emerging markets, aggressively focusing on user engagement and tapping into advertisement and gaming. Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) is also expanding into NFL games and WWE. Netflix’s ad-tier now has 40 million global monthly active users, up from 23 million in January.
Thanks to its aggressive focus on expansion, Netflix Inc’s (NASDAQ:NFLX) revenue stream has become extremely diversified, which can protect it from the headwinds at home. In 2023, Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) raked in $14.9 billion revenue from US and Canada combined, while revenue from the EMEA region jumped 8% to $10.6 billion. Latin America and Asia-Pacific revenue came in at $4.4 billion and $3.8 billion.
Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) added a whopping 9.3 million subscribers in the first quarter alone, a sign that its strategies are working. For context, Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) had added 1.8 million subscribers in the prior-year quarter. The subscriber growth is expected to continue as Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) focuses on user stratification and new content. Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) is targeting original content spending of $17 billion by 2024.
RiverPark Large Growth Fund stated the following regarding Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX): NFLX was a top contributor in 1Q24 following strong fourth quarter earnings and 2024 guidance driven by better-than-expected subscriber adds (+13.1 million versus estimates of +8.9 million). The company’s subscriber growth continued to accelerate following the company’s crack down on password sharing and the rollout of the lower cost, advertising supported subscriber offering known as the Ad Tier. ARPU came in below expectations, but recently announced price increases in the US, UK and France showed signs of moving ARPU higher. NFLX guided 2024 operating margins to 24%, ahead of prior guidance of 22-23%, and guided to 2024 free cash flow of $6 billion.
The recent re-acceleration of subscriber growth, plus price increases on premium memberships and a stabilization of content investments, should position the company for low double digit annual revenue growth over the next few years while driving improved operating margin to more than 25%. We also believe that the stabilization of content spend should allow the company to continue to scale its FCF.”
8. Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 115
Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO) is the fourth biggest holding of the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ). With a PE ratio of over 70 and RSI over more than 60, Broadcom is one of the top overbought stocks in the market right now.
JPMorgan in a latest report said that Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO) can “dominate” the high-end of the custom chips market. JPMorgan expects the high-end of the application-specific integrated circuit, or ASIC, market to reach anywhere between $20 billion and $30 billion, up from its previous estimate of $20 billion to $25 billion.
While Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO) is directly exposed to the AI semiconductor market, some believe the stock is priced for perfection, with a P/E multiple of 52 and YTD share price gain of 30%. In the first quarter Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO) saw a 34% revenue growth, which surprised the Wall Street. However, adjusted earnings clocked in growth that was significantly less than revenues, indicating limited margins. Broadcom Inc’s (NASDAQ:AVGO) EV/EBITDA is 22.5, much higher than its five-year average of 14 and sector median of 14. Broadcom Inc’s (NASDAQ:AVGO) debt levels are also worrying for many. It has $73,429 million in long-term debt and $2,374 million in current debt. Broadcom Inc’s (NASDAQ:AVGO) revenue growth is expected to come in at 13% next year and 15.10% over the next five years on a per-annum basis. This means Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO) is a laggard when compared to industry leaders like NVDA. The stock’s one-year average analyst price estimate set by Wall Street is $1533, representing an upside potential of just 9%.
Carillon Eagle Growth & Income Fund stated the following regarding Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO) continues to trade higher as a beneficiary of generative artificial intelligence (AI). Management recently highlighted that AI-related silicon now comprises a significant percentage of all semiconductor solution sales. The company also is focused on integrating its acquisition of VMware.
7. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 124
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) has a PE ratio of 233.67, which is even higher than Nvidia. It’s a key part of the QQQ ETF, which, according to BTIG, has entered the overbought territory.
Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore said while he likes AMD’s story, he sees “limited upward revision potential for AI from here and we move to EW, with a preference for NVDA and AVGO among large cap AI semis.”
Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) is making waves with its new AI PC offerings. Earlier this month, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) revealed new AMD Ryzen™ AI 300 Series processors equipped with Neural Processing Unit (NPU)1. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) has also introduced next-gen AMD Ryzen™ 9000 Series processors for desktops. Citi recently said in a report that Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) is expected to take about 10% of the data center GPU market. This market share would be worth about $15 billion according to Citi’s calculations. Citi analyst Christopher Danely reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a $176 price target.
Meridian Contrarian Fund stated the following regarding Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) in its fourth quarter 2023 investor letter:
“Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) is a global semiconductor chip maker specializing in central processing units (CPUs), which are considered the core component of most computing devices, and graphics processing units (GPUs), which accelerate operations running on CPUs. We invested in 2018 when it was a mid-cap value stock plagued by many years of underperformance due to lagging technology and lost market hi share versus competitors Intel and Nvidia. Our research identified that changes and investments made by current management under CEO Lisa Su had, over several years, finally resulted in compelling technology that positioned AMD as a stronger competitor to Nvidia and that its latest products were superior to Intel’s. We invested on the the belief that AMD’s valuation at that that time did not reflect the potential for its technology leadership to generate significant market share gains and improved profits. This thesis has been playing out for several years. During the quarter, AMD unveiled more details about its upcoming GPU products for the AI market. The stock reacted positively to expectations that AMD’s GPU servers will be a viable alternative to Nvidia. Although we pared back our exposure to AMD into strength as part of our risk-management practice, we maintained a position in the stock. We believe AMD will continue to gain share in large and growing markets and is reasonably valued relative to the potential for significantly higher earnings.”
6. Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 150
Apple Inc’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) 14-day RSI is over 61, worse than 95.24% of 2921 companies in the Software industry. Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) is the third-biggest holding of the QQQ ETF, which is also entering the overbought territory based on its RSI metric according to a latest note by BTIG.
Morgan Stanley said in a report last month that Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) is one of the stocks that could benefit from the rise of AI PCs. Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) skeptics have long believed that Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) is a laggard in the AI race, but experts say Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) almost always makes its own way and Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) will come roaring back in the AI competition and surpass Microsoft and Alphabet. The first signs of Apple Inc’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) AI capabilities are here. Last month, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) revealed new M4-powered iPad Pro and claimed that its devices, powered by Neural Engine, will be “more powerful than any neural processing unit in any AI PC today.” Apple Inc’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) Neural Engine is Apple Inc’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) neural processing unit (NPU) that accelerates AI workloads.
Notable Wall Street analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster recently made waves when he said in a post on Twitter that Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) is a better investment than Nvidia for the long term. Munster believes owning Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) over the next year will have a higher return because the market is in “denial” about Apple’s AI potential.
Mar Vista Focus strategy stated the following regarding Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“Apple Inc.’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock was pressured in the quarter as investors fretted over softening demand for smartphones, regulatory action from the US Department of Justice, and the Chinese government mandates restricting iPhone use by government officials. Despite these near-term headwinds, we continue to believe the company remains competitively advantaged and benefits from the Apple ecosystem, which has an installed base of over 2 billion devices and over 1 billion paying subscribers. We believe the Apple ecosystem will support a more predictable cash flow stream, which should grow intrinsic value high-single-digits over our investment horizon.”
5. Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 165
Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) is one of the top holdings of the QQQ which has entered the overbought territory according to financial services firm BTIG. Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) has a 14-day RSI value of 62, worse than 89.85% of the 600 companies in the interactive media industry, according to data from GuruFocus. However, many believe Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) is one of the most undervalued AI stocks right now based on its growth catalysts.
Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) bulls believe the company is just getting started with AI product launches. Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) is indeed in a strong position to develop an AI ecosystem around its products. For example, demos have shown that Gemini app will help people perform daily personal tasks like note taking, appointments, writing, etc. These features could easily be integrate with other Google apps. Alphabet Inc.’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) app is to urge users to sign up for ‘Google One AI Premium’ plan, which has a $19.99 price tag. Google saw advertising revenue accelerate in Q1 2024, boosted by YouTube in particular growing by almost 21% last quarter. Analysts also believe Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) is in a strong position to offset any headwinds or lost market share in Google search with YouTube, which saw its ads revenue reach $8.1 billion in the first quarter, a 21% growth. Alphabet Inc.’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) net income in the period came in at $23.66 billion, up 57%, or $1.89 per share.
Weitz Investment Large Cap Equity Fund stated the following regarding Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) in its first quarter 2024 investor letter:
“Mega-cap titans Meta Platforms, Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Amazon generated outsized gains and were the Fund’s top relative contributors for the past 12 months. Following our valuation discipline, we continued to methodically rotate from more fully priced stocks to those trading at healthier discounts to our value estimates. We trimmed more tech-adjacent winners during the quarter, including Alphabet
Alphabet has been the most notable trim over the past two quarters. In effect, we removed the heavy overweight layer of the position size, which had been in the 6% to 8% range for most of the last five years. Part of the decision simply reflected valuation prudence after an exceptional period where the stock price ran well ahead of our estimate of business value growth. Some of it was a reality check that Google’s core search business may be less clearly unassailable than it appeared to be five to seven years ago. Our team also has adopted a healthy “prove it” approach to management/culture, capital allocation and future returns on a robust investment cycle. While Alphabet may no longer warrant standout overweight status, the stock remains one of the Fund’s largest holdings.”
