3. NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA)
Number of Hedge Fund Investors: 193
Eric Jackson, EMJ Capital founder, explained on CNBC why he believes NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) will not be impacted negatively due to DeepSeek.
“NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) is such a poster child for AI in general… So it was just such a shocker that it really took it down. I stuck with it because I believed it was overdone. And despite the fact that we have to work smarter at how we build these models, I don’t think there’s anybody who’s going to pass on the opportunity to get their hands on some Blackwell chips or Rubin chips next year if they have the opportunity. So I think the order book for NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) is going to show to be really strong. I expect NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) to be just fine.”
Simply beating earnings estimates is not enough for NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) anymore, and the impact of high expectations will continue to weigh on the stock as growth cools.
Nvidia’s forward P/E ratio for the fiscal year ending January 2026 is around 31. An EPS surprise of 8.5% was not able to help the stock. A similar trend occurred following the second-quarter earnings after a 5.6% EPS surprise. It’s difficult to see Nvidia maintaining a mid-70s gross margin by the end of 2026. Over the last two quarters, Nvidia has already reported a drop in its gross margin from 78% to 74.5%.
Then there’s competition. Amazon (AMZN) recently disclosed its Trainium 3 chip, which is set to be released by the end of 2025. The chip is expected to be twice as fast with 40% more power efficiency than the previous generation, manufactured on TSMC’s (TSM) cutting-edge N3 technology. Reportedly, technology giant Apple (AAPL) will be a consumer of Amazon’s new silicon.
Alger Spectra Fund stated the following regarding NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) in its Q4 2024 investor letter:
“NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) is a leading supplier of graphics processing units (GPUs) for a variety of end markets, such as gaming, PCs, data centers, virtual reality, and high-performance computing. The company is leading in most secular growth categories in computing, and especially artificial intelligence and super-computing parallel processing techniques for solving complex computational problems. In our view, Nvidia’s computational power is a critical enabler of AI and therefore essential to AI adoption. Shares contributed to performance during the quarter, driven by strong demand for its data center products, especially the Hopper H200 chips, which generated double-digit billions in revenue, marking the fastest product ramp in the company’s history. Management provided fiscal fourth-quarter revenue guidance above analyst estimates, along with resilient operating margins supported by robust demand and limited competition. In our view, Nvidia’s leadership in scaling AI infrastructure, including advancements in inference and test-time scaling (i.e., reasoning during inference), is driving adoption among enterprises and startups, providing continued demand for its high-performance chips and software solutions. As older-generation chips are repurposed for inference and new clusters are deployed, we believe Nvidia is well-positioned to capitalize on growing compute needs across AI applications.”
