Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Michael Rehaut: Okay. Well, the heart of the question though was looking at the guidance, you took down SG&A due to some progress on cost saves. The gross margin, though, I’m curious if that was more based on the 8% average incentive and if you continue to have 6.5% or potentially even lower could that ultimately drive some upside in your gross margin guidance for the full year? I think you said that the upside in the first quarter was due to less incentives as well.

Martin Connor : Yes, Mike, it’s Marty. Thanks for your questions. We expect our gross margin to be relatively consistent through the balance of the year to get to that 27% for the year. There’s estimates in that, obviously, with respect to what’s in the backlog and what may be sold and settled in the interim. But we feel like we’ve accounted for the puts and takes that we showed in the guidance we’ve given you.

Douglas Yearley: And part of that, Mike, there is a budget in place as part of that guidance for that occasional need to work with some of the backlog to get them to close. But we’ve been very pleased with how low that can rate is and how little we have had to spend with that backlog.

Operator: And the next question comes from Rafe Jadrosich from Bank of America.

Rafe Jadrosich : It’s Rafe. Just first, the net debt to cap is already kind of at the low end of your historical range. Can you just talk about the right level you’re thinking about going forward? And then with the market improving a little bit here and supply chain improvement, you’re going to generate a lot of cash. Just how do you think about land spend versus buybacks going forward?

Martin Connor : With respect to the net debt to cap, I think we’re comfortable with the gross level in the high 20s, the net level in the mid-20s that’s consistent with our discussions with the rating agencies. It may fluctuate a little bit around those numbers based on timing and maturities. With respect to new land and debt paydowns and stock repurchases as it relates to capital allocation, it’s a delicate balance. And we are fortunate in our financial flexibility to do a little bit of all of those. Right now, the deal flow for land has to hit a much higher underwriting threshold and has been a little bit less — there are plenty of deals in our pipeline that meet those thresholds, particularly those that were underwritten a number of years ago, and we continue to execute on those. And we have $400 million of debt that we’ll be paying off in the second quarter here, while we continue to buy land and buy stock back.

Douglas Yearley: And I would point out that over the last 5 quarters, we have walked away from 14,000 option lots. Part of our strategy a few years ago to get more capital efficient and have less risk in our landholdings was to option more land. And as you’ve seen by the modest walkaway costs that we’ve had over those 5 quarters, it’s been pretty painless to walk away from those lots because in today’s environment, they weren’t working. Now that will be replenished at the right price and also with capital-efficient strategies. But I think it shows it’s the payoff of being very capital efficient and selective in how we’ve been buying land that we can walk away from that number of options painlessly.

Rafe Jadrosich : That’s helpful. And then in the gross margin guidance, can you talk about sort of the underlying assumptions or just what you’re seeing in terms of construction costs going forward here? For example, can you talk about maybe for how it started today, what’s the construction cost that you would anticipate versus a similar house 3 months ago? Like have you started to see that come down? And what type can we expect from a margin perspective there?