Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (THLD): Hedge Funds and Insiders Are Bearish, What Should You Do?

Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:THLD) has experienced a decrease in activity from the world’s largest hedge funds of late.

According to most investors, hedge funds are perceived as slow, outdated investment vehicles of years past. While there are more than 8000 funds with their doors open at present, we choose to focus on the top tier of this group, around 450 funds. It is widely believed that this group has its hands on most of the smart money’s total asset base, and by watching their highest performing investments, we have come up with a number of investment strategies that have historically outstripped Mr. Market. Our small-cap hedge fund strategy outstripped the S&P 500 index by 18 percentage points a year for a decade in our back tests, and since we’ve started sharing our picks with our subscribers at the end of August 2012, we have beaten the S&P 500 index by 23.3 percentage points in 8 months (see all of our picks from August).

Equally as important, positive insider trading sentiment is another way to break down the stock market universe. Just as you’d expect, there are lots of reasons for a bullish insider to cut shares of his or her company, but just one, very clear reason why they would behave bullishly. Plenty of academic studies have demonstrated the useful potential of this method if piggybackers understand where to look (learn more here).

With all of this in mind, it’s important to take a look at the key action regarding Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:THLD).

How are hedge funds trading Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:THLD)?

At Q1’s end, a total of 14 of the hedge funds we track were long in this stock, a change of -7% from the first quarter. With hedgies’ sentiment swirling, there exists an “upper tier” of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were upping their stakes considerably.

Of the funds we track, Adage Capital Management, managed by Phill Gross and Robert Atchinson, holds the largest position in Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:THLD). Adage Capital Management has a $7.6 million position in the stock, comprising less than 0.1%% of its 13F portfolio. Sitting at the No. 2 spot is Baker Bros. Advisors, managed by Julian Baker and Felix Baker, which held a $7.4 million position; 0.1% of its 13F portfolio is allocated to the company. Remaining hedge funds with similar optimism include Cliff Asness’s AQR Capital Management, Israel Englander’s Millennium Management and Richard Driehaus’s Driehaus Capital.

Due to the fact that Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:THLD) has witnessed a declination in interest from hedge fund managers, it’s easy to see that there was a specific group of hedge funds who were dropping their positions entirely in Q1. Intriguingly, Sean Cullinan’s Point State Capital dumped the biggest stake of the “upper crust” of funds we monitor, totaling an estimated $0.4 million in stock., and Peter Rathjens, Bruce Clarke and John Campbell of Arrowstreet Capital was right behind this move, as the fund said goodbye to about $0 million worth. These bearish behaviors are important to note, as total hedge fund interest was cut by 1 funds in Q1.

How have insiders been trading Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:THLD)?

Insider trading activity, especially when it’s bullish, is particularly usable when the company in focus has seen transactions within the past 180 days. Over the latest 180-day time period, Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:THLD) has experienced zero unique insiders buying, and zero insider sales (see the details of insider trades here).

Let’s go over hedge fund and insider activity in other stocks similar to Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:THLD). These stocks are Progenics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:PGNX), Coronado Biosciences Inc (NASDAQ:CNDO), Curis, Inc. (NASDAQ:CRIS), and GTx, Inc. (NASDAQ:GTXI). This group of stocks are in the biotechnology industry and their market caps are closest to THLD’s market cap.

With the results demonstrated by the aforementioned studies, retail investors must always keep an eye on hedge fund and insider trading activity, and Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:THLD) applies perfectly to this mantra.

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