This Metric Says You Are Smart to Sell Diebold Incorporated (NYSE:DBD) – Advent Software, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADVS), RealPage, Inc. (NASDAQ:RP)

Diebold Incorporated (NYSE:DBD) has experienced a decrease in activity from the world’s largest hedge funds lately.

According to most shareholders, hedge funds are viewed as unimportant, old investment tools of yesteryear. While there are over 8000 funds trading at the moment, we at Insider Monkey hone in on the bigwigs of this group, close to 450 funds. Most estimates calculate that this group controls the lion’s share of all hedge funds’ total asset base, and by paying attention to their top stock picks, we have found a number of investment strategies that have historically outpaced the S&P 500 index. Our small-cap hedge fund strategy outperformed the S&P 500 index by 18 percentage points per year for a decade in our back tests, and since we’ve began to sharing our picks with our subscribers at the end of August 2012, we have outpaced the S&P 500 index by 24 percentage points in 7 months (see the details here).

Equally as integral, optimistic insider trading activity is another way to parse down the world of equities. There are many incentives for an insider to cut shares of his or her company, but just one, very clear reason why they would behave bullishly. Various empirical studies have demonstrated the market-beating potential of this tactic if “monkeys” know what to do (learn more here).

Keeping this in mind, we’re going to take a gander at the key action encompassing Diebold Incorporated (NYSE:DBD).

How have hedgies been trading Diebold Incorporated (NYSE:DBD)?

At the end of the fourth quarter, a total of 10 of the hedge funds we track held long positions in this stock, a change of -17% from the third quarter. With the smart money’s sentiment swirling, there exists a few key hedge fund managers who were upping their holdings substantially.

Of the funds we track, GAMCO Investors, managed by Mario Gabelli, holds the most valuable position in Diebold Incorporated (NYSE:DBD). GAMCO Investors has a $109 million position in the stock, comprising 0.8% of its 13F portfolio. Sitting at the No. 2 spot is Royce & Associates, managed by Chuck Royce, which held a $29 million position; the fund has 0.1% of its 13F portfolio invested in the stock. Remaining peers that are bullish include Cliff Asness’s AQR Capital Management, SAC Subsidiary’s Sigma Capital Management and Israel Englander’s Millennium Management.

Judging by the fact that Diebold Incorporated (NYSE:DBD) has faced bearish sentiment from the aggregate hedge fund industry, we can see that there was a specific group of money managers that slashed their positions entirely at the end of the year. It’s worth mentioning that Jim Simons’s Renaissance Technologies cut the biggest stake of the “upper crust” of funds we watch, comprising an estimated $9 million in stock.. Peter Algert and Kevin Coldiron’s fund, Algert Coldiron Investors, also dumped its stock, about $1 million worth. These moves are interesting, as aggregate hedge fund interest dropped by 2 funds at the end of the year.

How are insiders trading Diebold Incorporated (NYSE:DBD)?

Insider buying is best served when the company we’re looking at has seen transactions within the past half-year. Over the latest six-month time period, Diebold Incorporated (NYSE:DBD) has experienced 2 unique insiders buying, and 1 insider sales (see the details of insider trades here).

Let’s go over hedge fund and insider activity in other stocks similar to Diebold Incorporated (NYSE:DBD). These stocks are Progress Software Corporation (NASDAQ:PRGS), Compuware Corporation (NASDAQ:CPWR), Advent Software, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADVS), Manhattan Associates, Inc. (NASDAQ:MANH), and RealPage, Inc. (NASDAQ:RP). This group of stocks belong to the application software industry and their market caps are closest to DBD’s market cap.

With the results exhibited by our time-tested strategies, retail investors must always watch hedge fund and insider trading activity, and Diebold Incorporated (NYSE:DBD) is an important part of this process.

Click here to learn why you should track hedge funds