Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:TCBX) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

And I think the $226 million coming to the third quarter is actually fortuitous because I think the fourth quarter will be slower, but it tees up the opportunity for us to grow a little bit into our operating efficiency, control our headcount and also have an increase in revenue that’s going to affect the bottom line. And I think the fourth quarter is going to look a lot better, and it’s certainly going to tee us up for a good 2024.

Graham Dick: Okay. That’s very helpful, Bart. And then I guess you touched on it a little bit there, but the loan growth outlook, obviously, you guys had some unexpected stuff happened, things got pulled forward to this quarter. What do you guys think for next year on loan growth? I think this year, before this quarter, we had talked about maybe $300 million to $400 million in growth for the full year. Can you frame up what you expect in 2020? Do you think it will be a little bit less than that as the economy cools down? Or are you still seeing pretty good opportunities on the lending side to do something similar?

Bart Caraway: Yes. I mean — I think what — the nice thing the position we’re in is we’ve had some really high-quality customers that we have been onboarding. And it’s just a unique market in that we can be very choosy. And so it’s been very nice to get full high-quality customers from some of the competitors and establish relationships. So with that, I mean, you’ll still continue to see some growth. I think for the fourth quarter, the growth is going to be very mild, $50 million to $100 million. But when you look at 2024, we think somewhere between $300 million and $400 million is quite reasonable. And again, you got to factor in that we’re going to have some attrition in loans. So there’s going to be some paydowns and payoffs with it.

But I think net growth of $300 million to $400 million is very reasonable. And I think all of that is coming from just almost high grading the portfolio. We just have such excellent clients that we’re choosing that I think the portfolio is even going to get even better as we continue to grow. So we’re very excited about it. I think it’s an opportunity for us to gain market share in our markets with some of the best clients that are out there with, call it, again, $300 million to $400 million in net growth for 2024. John, do you have anything to add to it?

John McWhorter: I mean rates may affect that somewhat to the extent that rates were to continue to go up, we’d be at the lower end of that scale. If they come back down, I think we’ll see even more opportunities, particularly on the builder side.

Operator: Next question comes from the line of Michael Rose with Raymond James.

Michael Rose: Hi. Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just wanted to start on kind of the continued negative mix shift in deposit book. I know you guys have had really strong deposit growth. It’s been a welcome sight to see. But obviously, your deposit costs are fairly high relative to peer, and I think a function of that is just a strong asset growth that you’ve had. But just as we think about the next few quarters in a rate environment where Fed rates are kind of at or near peak, how should we think about the progression of deposit cost betas and mix shift as it relates to kind of the ongoing asset repricing that is going to help the margin again this quarter. Just trying to kind of frame up the puts and takes as we think about the yield and margin progression into next year?