The Travelers Companies, Inc. (NYSE:TRV) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Alan Schnitzer: It’s a really good question. And as you can imagine, I’m going to resist the temptation to try to share too much on an outlook of that number or what we might want to do strategically. Everything you mentioned is something we can think about. And I really would like to get away from talking about the future of margins. But we’ve answered that question before with loss trend where it is and pricing where it is. So you can conclude that answer hasn’t really changed. So I think I’m just going to leave it with we really like these margins. We really like the business we’re putting on the books at the margin we’re putting it on the books and we really like the opportunity ahead of us.

Gregory Toczydlowski: Brian, this is Greg. Just one follow-up. I would note you said you could grow the business. We are growing the business 16% on a full year basis and have strong new business. So there’s a number of items that we watch and we compete in the marketplace, but growth is one of them through the lens of adequacy of our products.

Alan Schnitzer: Yeah. And on that note, as I’ve shared before, we — it’s a [indiscernible] in this industry to try to grow and compete on price. That’s a losing proposition. We try to grow by making sure we’ve got the products, services and experiences that our customers want to buy and our distribution partners want to sell.

Brian Meredith: Makes sense. Thanks. And then, Michael, I’m just curious, back on personal auto. When you look at your business, the majority right now being all on a written basis, what are you kind of thinking from a loss cost in place in perspective? And is that maybe why you’re not stepping on growth maybe a little bit quicker right now because of uncertainty as far as the claim severity?

Michael Klein: Sure, Brian. It’s a great question. I would say that we continue to see loss trends moderate in personal auto but they remain at elevated levels. And so I guess I would describe our outlook as cautiously optimistic, and I would just say we’re staying very disciplined, as I described earlier, with state-by-state execution, making sure we have our arms around written rate adequacy and then adjusting our marketplace actions in auto accordingly. And as I said, we’re very pleased with the increase in new business production that we saw this quarter and policies in force stabilizing. And our plan is to continue down that path, achieve rate equity in additional states and for those non-rate actions as we go and see what that does to the top line as we move forward.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields from KBW. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Meyer Shields: Great. Thank you. Good morning. I was hoping for an update on what you’re seeing in workers’ compensation medical inflation. We’ve heard some comments about it moving back towards normalized levels and I’m wondering what Travelers experience is?

Dan Frey: Hey, Meyer. It’s Dan. So sure, a couple of comments on that. We do see some paid medical severity. That’s now higher than what we saw in the very benign pandemic levels. On the flip side of that, frequency has been pretty favorable. And as you know, we’ve shared a number of times previously, our view in reserving and in pricing still assumes that there’s going to be a return to that higher longer-term trend. But when we factor all that in, in the most recent data that we’re looking at, loss costs still coming in better than we expected, and that’s why you get another quarter of favorable PYD.

Meyer Shields: Okay. Fantastic. And then switching gears, when we look at the, I guess, the premium data in Business Insurance, it looks like exposure and other components that are not rates accelerated in Select, but decelerated in middle market and property. And I was hoping you could talk us through that.

Gregory Toczydlowski: Hey, Meyer. This is Greg. We have a couple of dynamics going on between those two businesses. In Select, we have a higher exposure in workers’ comp E&CMP (ph). And for workers’ comp relative to middle market, I think that it’s just a different cohort of customers. So in a wage increase environment on a smaller customer base, you get bigger deltas and so that’s what’s driving the difference in workers’ comp. CMP, similar to what Michael said, that’s our business owner product with a heavy property coverage that comes with it in. So we do have to think of it as an automatic inflationary level underneath the CMP product, so you get a little more exposure to growth there also. So those are the drivers underneath the difference between select and middle.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Alex Scott from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Alex Scott: Hi. Good morning. First one I had is on Business Insurance. And I was just interested in hearing a little bit about the competitive dynamic in the market. I mean I look at the returns, how the underlying loss ratios are and so forth and the ROEs that suggests and yet price accelerating and in some areas, your business retention is actually hitting pretty darn high levels. So it also gets a lot of discipline in the marketplace. And just wanted to get your perspective on what is it in the environment that’s causing everyone to remain so disciplined despite good underwriting and the additional contribution to net investment income.

Alan Schnitzer: Alex, good morning. It’s Alan. Let me start and then I’ll turn it over to Greg to add anything I missed. But I would say, overall, you’re correct. The pricing environment remains very strong and broad based by any historical standard or on any measure. And as you said, even with another quarter of very strong pricing, retention remains at historical highs. And I would say in broad strokes and there’s really no change here from recent quarters. In broad strokes, I think there are two trends impacting pricing. On the one hand, there’s just a lot of uncertainty out there in the world, and there’s some headwinds. So the reinsurance market continues to be strong. You’ve got inflation of various varieties. You’ve got a tight labor market.