The Travelers Companies, Inc. (NYSE:TRV) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Ryan Tunis: Got it. And I guess if I look at the overall, the exposure is still positive across the book. So clearly something else is picking that up. On the property side, are you guys still getting positive exposure adjustments from like insured value adjustments? Or is that really just kind of a 2023 catch up thing that’s already happened?

Gregory Toczydlowski: Yes, as you can imagine, it’s somewhat linear with inflation, Ryan. So 2023, we had some record results of trying to keep up with the replacement costs and building materials. So it’s down somewhat from 2023, but still up overall.

Alan Schnitzer: Hey, Ryan, as a macro comment, if you look at that exposure, it’s easy to get very focused on recent periods. But if you look at that number over time, it’s a pretty healthy number that I think is consistent with what is today a pretty healthy economy.

Ryan Tunis: Thank you.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Meyers Shields with KBW. Your line is open.

Meyers Shields: Great, thanks. If I can stick with property for a second, last year when we tracked renewal pricing changes, it sort of peaked in the second and third quarter. And I’m wondering whether there’s a seasonal element to that or we should just sort of follow that curve to anticipate smaller rate increases because of the reduced indicated need over the course of 2024?

Alan Schnitzer: Meyer, yes, there really isn’t a seasonal element of pricing overall. Our field underwriters are going to look at the exposure at hand and the renewal book will change over time as we write incremental new business. And so overall, it’s dependent on the exposures that come up for that particular quarter. That’s more of the dynamic than any seasonality.

Dan Frey: Yes, Meyer, it’s Dan. I’ll just add in case your question is not just seasonality of pure price change, but within the property line, there’s some seasonality of its mix on a written premium basis. And to your point, and you can see it in the financial supplement, the second and third quarters tend to be relatively higher levels of commercial property compared to what comes up in Q1 and Q4.

Meyers Shields: Okay, that’s very helpful. Thank you. If I can switch gears, I wanted to talk a little bit about workers’ compensation reserve releases because based on the statutory numbers, there were like 900 million of releases in 2023. And I think you said less than 100 this quarter. So that’s slowing down. I was hoping you could maybe break that down either by accident year or the difference between actual claim emergence versus indications.

Dan Frey: Yes, Meyer, it’s Dan. So again, I’m going to resist the temptation to do it by accident year. It’s multiple accident years in comp as it normally is. We’re really just going through the same robust and disciplined review process every quarter in comp and in every line. We’ll go through the latest data. We’ll look at how it might have varied from what our actuarial models would have expected. And we’ll do our best to determine the reasons why the actual varied from expected and book the necessary adjustments accordingly. And the number is just sort of going to be what it’s going to be. And if you think about this quarter versus last quarter or this quarter versus next quarter in any particular line, prior reserve development might be more, might be less.

We’ll wait and see what the data tells us. But it’s more of the same in terms of thematically what’s coming through. We have continued to make assumptions around what long-term severity is going to be. We have assumptions around what frequency is going to be. And that of those things has been some more good news in the first part of this year.

Alan Schnitzer: Meyer, I’ll also add that as we, one part of our consideration process as we go through this is to make sure that we’re appropriately reflecting our thoughts about uncertainty. So that’s, just something to keep in mind.

Meyers Shields: Okay. That’s very helpful. Thank you so much.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski of BMO. Your line is open.

Mike Zaremski: Okay. Great. Good morning. On the, maybe question on the Business Insurance segment, when we look at the underlying combined ratio, it’s, it’s shown a nice trend of, I guess improvement versus prior years. And that’s kind of despite you all kind of topping off IB&R and kind of adding to reserves on recent vintages. And so just curious about that dynamic, how is it that your view of kind of the underlying has stayed excellent kind of, and not kind of drifted a bit higher as you’ve taken some just small actions? Is it just pricing powers been, you think just much higher than loss cost trend or any color you have would be helpful?

Alan Schnitzer: Let me, let me start and I’ll turn it over to you, Dan. So we understand that sometimes the investment community can get very focused on a couple of metrics as you think about what drives it, but, but that’s really not the way it comes together. It comes together through all the things that, that impact margins. And so, if you look at the excellent result this quarter earn pricing was a significant benefit favorable mix was a little bit of a benefit and there was some small items going the other way that that partially upset some of that benefit. As Dan mentioned, we booked a little bit more IB&R as a reflection of uncertainty, a little bit of non-CAT weather a little bit of discrete large loss activity none of those things significant and as you can tell from the fact that it was an excellent and improving number but every quarter there’s there are just a bunch of factors that add up and puts and takes.