The TJX Companies, Inc. (NYSE:TJX) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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Michael Binetti: I’m just wondering if you already know that you’ve got good packaway for — in goods that can be deployed in the fall season next year if the content and the amount of branded goods that you’re very excited about clearly today. You have in-store today visibility in packaway today visibility that you’ll be able to have those goods before next fall.

Scott Goldenberg: Yes. We’re not at a high level of packaway at this point in time. We’re probably — even or slightly lower than what we would have been. So it’s more on the come on what we will or could buy for the rest of the year

Ernie Herrman: I’ll jump in there on that. What could happen because of the availability is, typically, we’re — still right now is we’re just in the middle of November. You’re in this time, Michael, when actually you’re using the goods. So, you don’t — and we don’t — you kind of wait for you buy through a lot of these current goods. And as you go through it, as you get toward maybe December, you start saying, okay, there’s goods in that category from that vendor left. I am now going to look at packing those away. My gut would say to me there’s going to be more of that later than there was prior. So, as Scott said, we’re not — right now, we don’t see that. Just based on what’s out there, however, I would guess there will be more packaways coming out of this Christmas that we would pack away for next fall than we did last year.

Operator: Our next question from Chuck Grom.

Chuck Grom: Congrats on a good quarter. Typically, consumers trade down during these tough economic times, but that’s clearly not the case for you yet. And I guess, I’m curious why you think that’s different today? And I guess, when you look ahead, when do you think you may start to see that? Walmart has called it out, the dollar stores have started to call it out, but you and your peers have not. So just curious if you think it’s on the come? And I guess, if you have any sense of when you think it might start to see it based on history in the business?

Ernie Herrman: Yes. Chuck, I think it’s not — I guess, it’s hard for us to read if it’s trade-down or if we’re just getting it across the board. So that — so I think what we were trying to say before is we can’t read if it’s trade-down because again, part of that goes to we buy across good, better — we’re buying — we’re trying to service almost every customer. So, what happens is, I think we get trade sideways. Right now, we’re gaining market share from across the board. And so, that’s — I wouldn’t say we’re not getting some trade down. I would say that’s just a piece out of many of the trade-overs, I guess you would call it. It’s too hard for we can’t seem to read — and Scott even mentioned, I think if you look region by region, where you would look at some of the stores that might be closing where might have created the trade down, we’re not seeing any significant difference by region, which is telling us we’re kind of getting a little everywhere. Scott?

Scott Goldenberg: Yes. If you go back again, history, 14, 15 years during the last recession, it was a little more pronounced at the higher income demographics where you were — given the stock market impact and people — and overall it was more pronounced in those demographics. So, it’s more noticeable. Again, I think Ernie said it right. It’s so across the board and so consistent, it’s just — we just may be getting it more across than just from the top end.

Ernie Herrman: I think we have time for one more question.

Operator: Thank you very much. The final question for the day will be from Dana Tesley.

Dana Telsey: Hi. And congratulations, John, and congratulations, Scott. Can you expand a little bit more on the HomeGoods business, exactly what you’re seeing there and how you see that path of improvement coming from, and what you saw in home versus apparel? I mean, Ernie, you mentioned that apparel over — and it goes back to the normalized index. But what should we be expecting from home and margin opportunity go forward? Thank you.

Ernie Herrman: Yes. So for sales and margin, Dana, is where you’re getting at going forward. Our outlook that we start to — next year because we were up against enormous increases this year as was everybody. The good news is from what I’ve seen across the board, yes, we’re dropping in our home business, but not as much as some of the other retailers that — so we feel — again, we look at that barometer. We’re hoping that next year, we get to a home sales trend that’s more back to — as I said earlier, back to those low single-digit comps is what we would hope. Margin-wise, there should be some upside because of what’s happening with freight becoming a bit of a tailwind. And as you know, the home business was hit significantly by freight more so than most of the other businesses.

I do feel that we wouldn’t have an outpacing home business. It probably starts to track toward the rest of our business. Again, tough to forecast with what’s going on and all the volatility around us in the environment. But that’s kind of our outlook right now. The beauty of our business is we play a hand to mouth close in. And if we’re not seeing that, we’ll adjust We are bullish on our accessories and apparel business still moving forward because it looks like there’s consistent opportunity as well as there’s some newness there. And newness always bodes well in our business as far as generating a reason to buy an impulse, which our business has so much built on impulse SKUs and categories and — so again, we just feel good across the board.

Good question.

Dana Telsey: Thank you.

Ernie Herrman: Thank you. And I think that was our last question for today. I’d like to thank you all for joining us today. We will be updating you again on our fourth quarter earnings call in February. So, thank you, everybody.

Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference call for today. You may all disconnect. Thank you very much for participating.

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