The Timken Company (NYSE:TKR) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Bryan Blair: Okay, appreciate it. Thanks again guys.

Richard Kyle: Thanks.

Operator: Thank you, Brian. With our next question comes from Michael Feniger from Bank of America. Michael, your line is now open.

Michael Feniger: Hey, guys, I recognize you’re taking a conservative approach to the outlook with a lack of visibility just on the pricing front, how much pricing just rolls into 2023 alone when we think of that 2% increase? And can you just remind us in a typical year, when do we normally see price increases? I know it’s different between the OE and the distribution, last year was an abnormal year, so, where we kind of look like in a normal year, when we think of, when we see these price increases?

Richard Kyle: In a normal year, we would see our biggest sequential step up from Q4 to Q1. And we’ve seen that in the abnormal years last couple of years as well, the biggest sequential improvement from Q4 to Q1, but then we’ve had this steady sequential growth from there. And I would expect a modest step up from Q4 to Q1, and then further sequential pricing and gains through the year like we’ve done the last couple years, I think the difference this year could be if steel prices moderate, then there would be a little more netting, which again, we factored into that more than 2% outlook for the year. So, I think to the earlier question, comp lower because of the sequential in the first quarter. So, we did expect pretty good price realization in the first quarter.

Michael Feniger: Thank you. And there’s a fairly big acquisition in the industrial motion space for 13, 14 times EBITDA multiple, way above where you’re trading today. How big is industrial motion of your portfolio right now? And I know you just announced a few acquisitions. Is there any view to slow that down, integrate and maybe shift more to repurchasing given that valuation discount of what we’re seeing out there in the market to where your stick shares are trading?

Richard Kyle: I mean, we did purchased 4% of the outstanding shares last year, and we’ve been pretty active in the buyback market for the last seven or eight years. And I don’t think the acquisitions that we’ve done would preclude us from doing that. But I will all say we don’t think it’s either or answer. And the answer is probably both. And we’ve been, and we’ve been doing both.

Philip Fracassa: Yes, I would just answer the question, Mike. Industrial motion would be roughly $1.4 billion in revenues. So, well over a $1 billion now, and we’ve targeted getting that to $2 billion, as Rich said, I think with our and we like what those businesses are doing for our portfolio, Rich showed the slide of our five year performance, that part of our portfolios contributed significantly to that performance. And while there’s a big acquisition and spending, there are still, we believe ample acquisition opportunities out there for us to continue to move the needle. So, I think you’ll see us continue to advance on the M&A front, with a disproportionate view toward industrial motion to continue to build that out, but still have the ability to buy back stock.

And we’ve systematically done that. And as I mentioned, we allocated $900 million of capital across the board in 2022, and across all across all fronts, buyback, M&A, dividends and CapEx. And we’re in a great position to continue doing that as we move forward with our balance sheet in such strong condition.

Michael Feniger: Great, and I’ll just sneak in one last question I wrote — you might have addressed this already. I know there’s a lack of visibility right now. Have you observed anything in January or early February, that would provide cause of concern, or conversely signs of encouragement, given some of that macro high level data points we’ve seen out there. Thank you.

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