The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ:SMPL) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Shaun Mara: We’re not that far from it, right. So the fundamental question you got to ask yourself, is the cost environment coming down, is it going up, coming down or is it neutral? It’s coming down. I own contracts for lower cost ingredients, substantially own them. We got to get to them, right. So as units are a little bit slower, it takes a little bit longer to get to them. And then the cost environment in general in the first half of the year, little bit through the third quarter has been inflationary right. So every surprise is a cost surprise in the opposite direction, right. We’re seeing that environment start to ease, right. So the question of, can you see everything, we’re much better than we were at the beginning of the year in what we’re seeing.

But in general, the cost environment is coming down. So as we move through the second half of the year, if there are surprises, they are all in likelihood going to be going the other direction. Is that a helpful perspective. We’re zooming in on a really small difference, right. And as Shaun said, no one thing. So we can’t put our finger on is this or is that. What we’re putting our finger on is, prices have been — just costs have been a little stickier higher than what we’ve anticipated and it just kind of pops up in a few places and you see them, right. That environment is changing. We can see it changing. It’s just happening a little slower than what we thought.

Steve Powers: Okay. And my last question real quick just to round it out. Is — talk — it sounds — just relative to what you said 3Q versus 4Q on the topline cadence, it feels like more is weighted to 4Q versus how at least our forecast their structure, I think the Streets as well and a lot of that’s on the inventory catch up and rebuild lapping last year. But I’m just — I’m listening to that against the context of the smaller — small retailers already drawing down inventory, is there — is there a risk that as consumption slows, inventory exits — inventory rates and the trade exit the year just at a structurally lower level and some of this margin benefit therefore slips into the subsequent year. Is that ring fenced in your outlook or is that risk something that we should be thinking about?

Joe Scalzo: Yes. Look, I think the most of our major customers, the top five customers, 70%, 75% of our shipments are operating at normal inventory levels. So eye — we’re keeping our eye on that factor. I don’t — we bake that into our estimates. I don’t think it’s a big issue. It’s obviously was a three-point issue in the quarter. It was a little bit of a surprise. I don’t expect it to be an overhang little bit cautious. And again just so for the quarters, the big driver of the difference in net sales performance third quarter to fourth quarter was last year’s inventory drawdown. So it’s — I know, if you look at our shipments, it looks like a hockey stick in Q4, but the reality of it is, the inventory came out in the fourth quarter last year, we will ship greater than consumption from a rate standpoint just because last year’s shipments were depressed in the fourth quarter.

Steve Powers: Yes, understood. Okay, thanks so much.

Operator: Our next question is from the line of Alexia Howard with Bernstein. Please proceed with your question.

Alexia Howard: Good morning, everyone.

Shaun Mara: Good morning.

Joe Scalzo: Good morning, Alexia.