The Kroger Co. (NYSE:KR) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Operator: Our next question comes from Spencer Hanus from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Spencer Hanus: On Our Brands, you saw that outperform the overall comp again this quarter. Are you seeing CPGs get more willing to offer trade spend just given the share losses that they’re seeing? And do you think the trade down that we’ve seen over the last few quarters accelerate as we move through ’23?

William McMullen: Yes. If you look at a 5-year trend or a 10-year trend, Our Brands has picked up share on almost every year. And the only exception to that was a little bit of time during COVID where people had much more money in their pocket. If you look, I would say, all short statements and economics are wrong, but we still have several CPGs that are passed or trying to pass through costs more than probably their inflation. We would still see that they’re more focused on profit and tonnage. And when that is true, that’s when Our Brand continues to gain share. And that’s the reason why Our Brand is performing so strongly. And if you look at historical cycles, eventually, that what you outlined will happen, but it hasn’t started happening yet.

Spencer Hanus: Got it. That’s helpful. And then on fuel margins, you called out $0.51 during the prepared remarks, which is up more than 50% versus what it was in 2019. So just curious how you’re thinking about the sustainability of fuel margins and where those will ultimately be baseline as it just becomes a bigger part of your overall operating profit today?

Gary Millerchip: Yes. Thanks, Spencer. So I think as we mentioned in our prepared comments, we do believe that fuel margins will be sustained at a higher level than the historical averages. We think there’s been some structural changes in that industry as you look at the last 5 years that would cause us to think that margins will be maintained at a higher level than historical levels. All that being said though, we do think — I think I mentioned it in one of the questions earlier that we would think that fuel profitability somewhere between $200 million to $250 million headwind in 2023, largely not because we don’t think that there’s a continued sort of sustainability in fuel margins. But if you remember last year, when the war in Ukraine was announced, there were some real volatility in prices.

And we think some of those shocks that happened around those times generally don’t get repeated and cycle. So it’s really allowing some of those sort of onetime unusual spikes in pricing or changes in pricing. But fundamentally, we believe fuel will be sustained at high levels.

William McMullen: The other thing just to add to Gary’s point. When retail fuel prices are high, customers engage in our fuel rewards a lot more and we provide significant discounts to customers through our fuel rewards. If prices come down, usually our reward costs will go down there as well. So you have to look at all the pieces together.

Operator: Our next question comes from Kate McShane of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Leah Jordan: This is Leah Jordan. You called out sourcing again as a tailwind this quarter. How are you managing that differently today? How much of an opportunity do you still see there? And is there anything assumed within the cost savings guidance as well?

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