I follow quite a lot of companies, so the usefulness of a watchlist to me cannot be overstated. Without my watchlist, I’d be unable to keep up on my favorite sectors and see what’s really moving the market. Even worse, I’d be lost when the time came to choose which stock I’m buying or shorting next.
Today is Watchlist Wednesday, so I’m discussing three companies that have crossed my radar in the past week — and at what point I may consider taking action on these calls with my own money. Keep in mind that these aren’t concrete buy or sell recommendations, nor do I guarantee I’ll take action on the companies being discussed. What I can promise is that you can follow my real-life transactions through my profile and that I, like everyone else here at The Motley Fool, will continue to hold the integrity of our disclosure policy in the highest regard.
With the markets once again near their yearly highs, I’ll focus my efforts on three short-sale candidates.
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF)
If companies were measured by the actions of their CEOs, then Abercrombie’s share price should have gone to zero by now.
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF)’s CEO, Mike Jeffries, has been nothing short of a circus act for his company, detracting from its actual performance and placing all eyes on his choice words and actions throughout the years. Recently, Abercrombie again had to deal with exclusionary comments Jeffries made with news website Salon in 2006 with regard to how the company would market its product and the type of individual it would prefer to wear its clothing. The result was public outrage and the strong possibility that domestic sales would again suffer at its flagship brands in the interim.
From a valuation perspective, it’s been a while since Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) was this inexpensive. At just 12 times forward earnings and paying out a 1.6% yield, Abercrombie does have a brand that could inspire value seekers to take the plunge. As for me, I’d suggest looking for those exists.
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF)’s big problem is that it doesn’t have a good understanding of the niche middle-class consumer. Aeropostale, Inc. (NYSE:ARO) is among the companies struggling on the low end by having to use big discounts to attract customers because their brand value is lacking. For a while, Aeropostale, Inc. (NYSE:ARO) was able to move enough volume where this wasn’t an issue, but it has become a burdensome underperformer since the recession. On the high end, Abercrombie is also struggling because its pricing (and public image) aren’t in tune with what customers want despite maintaining good brand value — not to mention that its push into Europe in the face of austerity measures hasn’t been the wisest move. The real winner in teen retail looks like American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO), which is hitting the sweet spot in terms of price while also maintaining a strong branding presence in stores and online.
If you’re looking at teen retailers, consider making the bet against Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) and digging deeper into American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE:AEO).
The Hershey Company (NYSE:HSY)
That bitter taste in my mouth is Hershey’s frothy valuation.
The Hershey Company (NYSE:HSY) has been riding high on a wave of lower expenses brought about because sugar prices are at a three-year low. With costs low, Hershey has been able to simply keep pace with inflation on its pricing while keeping its marketing budget at bay and relying on its brand name to drive margin and sales growth. The worry here, though, is that neither sales trends nor sugar prices are going to work in The Hershey Company (NYSE:HSY)’s favor in the long run.
Despite defying weak global growth trends, the chocolate industry is forecast to be worth a staggering $98.3 billion in 2016. However, that translates to an average growth rate of 3.4% between 2011 and 2016. The Hershey Company (NYSE:HSY)’s growth rate is a bit faster than that, at roughly 6% per year, but it hardly does justice to a forward P/E of 22 — thus making a PEG ratio of nearly 4 for a confectioner!
