The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (NYSE:GBX) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Brian Comstock: Yes, there’s undoubtedly, when you look at the traffic side of the equation, velocities improving a bit, there’s a number of segments that are down because the number of segments in the rail industry that are still fairly robust. Auto, there’s a tremendous amount of pent up demand. There’s a number of new facilities coming online. There are several new plastic pellets facilities that come online in late 2024, early 2025. Biodiesel continues to be fairly robust. And a lot of new facilities coming online in that area as well. And then you still have a tremendous amount of retirements of older cars, as well as a small number of cars and storage. So while there are some headwinds, in the overall outlook, the build cycle still looks fairly level at least we believe so over the next 18 to 36 months. Pending any major change and the economic condition.

Jacob Moore: Got it. Understood. Thanks. All right, go ahead.

Lorie Tekorius: Can you hear us okay?

Jacob Moore: Yes.

Lorie Tekorius: So I just want to check and make sure that we’re still broadcasting here. Sorry, we’ve had a few technical difficulties. Thank you, Justin, for your phone. Just to touch on your other comment about Gunderson, there probably be a little bit of we won’t have realized all of that permanent savings in our fourth quarter. But you know, as we get into the early part of our fiscal 24 that will be wrapped up. Because we’re just working with the new owners for some transition services.

Jacob Moore: Got it. Understood. Thank you for taking the questions.

Lorie Tekorius: Thank you.

Operator: [Operator instructions] Our next question we have follow up from Matt Elkott or TD Cowen, you may now go ahead.

Matt Elkott: Thank you for taking my follow ups. I think this is for Brian, Brian, the leases coming up for renewal in ’24 that you mentioned. If you are able to get them renewed earlier, the market is pretty hot right now. What kind of rate improvement do you think you can get expiring versus renewal side?

Brian Comstock: Good question, Matt. A lot of the renewals that we’re seeing in 2024, related to the purchase that we did, back in 2021, the fleet that we acquired, and a lot of those rates were, I would say sub market rates at the time. And so we believe we’re seeing quarter over quarter double digits, but in in those cases, we should see much larger double digit increases in the renewals in 2024 for at least that’s what we’re predicting at this stage, Matt.

Matt Elkott: And how many cars are those?

Brian Comstock: That’s a great question. I don’t have that at my fingertips, but I’m sure Justin can get back to you on that.

Justin Roberts: Yes, I just say it’s about 2000 cars.

Matt Elkott: Okay, thanks, Justin. And then just maybe one more question for Justin or Lorie. You’re pretty close to the mid-teens aggregate gross margin target for ’26 quarter. So first, any updated thoughts on this target? And second, can you remind us what the target is contingent on, do we have to be in a demand upcycle does it work at a you know at high replacement level or below replacement level demand because the recurring parts of the business should grow?

Lorie Tekorius: So, good question, Matt. And I would say that the targets are based on more stable demand so not a boom market. And I think while we’re excited about the achievements that we’ve received in this third quarter, we’d like to get a quarter two of continuous improvement under our belt before we’ll consider adjusting those five year targets.