In this article, we will reveal the fastest-declining state in the US. If you wish to look at our detailed rankings, you can go to the 15 Fastest-Declining States in the US.
According to the US Census Bureau, while the US population will continue to rise, the growth rate is slowing considerably. Projections indicate a peak of nearly 370 million in 2080, followed by a slight decrease to 366 million by 2100. This represents a modest increase of only 9.7% over eight decades, underscoring a long-term trend of a flattening population curve.
One of the key reasons for the projected decline is the decrease in fertility and consequently, a falling birth rate. According to provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the long-term decline in US fertility rates continued in 2023. There were about 3.6 million babies born that year, translating to a fertility rate of 54.4 live births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44. This marks a new low for the country in over a century. The declining birth rates and better life expectancy are causing an aging population as well. According to a recent analysis by Morgan Stanley, the percentage of Americans aged 65 and over is projected to reach 24% by 2060.
However, the decline is not uniform across the nation. Southern states like Texas and Florida continue to be among the fastest-growing states, driven by factors like job opportunities and warmer weather. In contrast, many Rust Belt states in the Northeast and Midwest are experiencing population losses as residents migrate outward seeking better economic prospects. These states are also home to some of the fastest-shrinking cities such as New York City, NY, and Revere City, MA.
Key Investment Opportunities
Certain companies, such as UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH), Welltower Inc. (NYSE:WELL), and American Healthcare REIT (NYSE:AHR), are expected to benefit from the trend of aging population and longevity.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) is a multinational health insurance and services company headquartered in Minnesota. Unlike hospitals facing rising costs and lower collections, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) benefits from its focus on home-based care. The home care market is booming with an annual growth rate of 2.8%. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) owns key healthcare providers like Optum and LHC Group.
In addition to gaining exposure to healthcare providers, another strategy to capitalize on the aging US population is investing in healthcare REITs, which own or manage facilities that seniors will visit in their later years. Morgan Stanley projects that the number of residents in independent living, assisted living, and skilled nursing facilities will increase by 0.4 million to 2.1 million by 2030.
One stock that offers exposure to the healthcare REIT sector is Welltower Inc. (NYSE:WELL), a senior housing investment trust. Over 85% of Welltower’s properties are strategically located near hospitals. As hospitals deal with financial challenges and raise their prices, Welltower Inc.’s (NYSE:WELL) senior housing portfolio could benefit from increased demand.
Meanwhile, for those interested in small-cap senior housing investments, American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (NYSE:AHR) can be a suitable option. American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (NYSE:AHR) is a $1.7 billion company focused on outpatient facilities and senior housing. Regulatory barriers such as the requirement for a Certificate of Need (CON) in many states have made it challenging to construct the types of senior housing and outpatient medical facilities that American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (NYSE:AHR) offers. This could potentially benefit the company’s existing portfolio.
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Our Methodology
We shortlisted the 15 fastest declining states in the US based on data from the US Census Bureau. We have ranked the states in ascending order of the percentage decline in population between 2020 and 2022. Furthermore, we have also shared the absolute decline in population for each state.
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The Fastest-Declining State in the US
1. New York
Percentage Change in Population: -2.14%
Population Decline: 431,145
New York has experienced the largest percentage decline in population among all US states between 2020 and 2022, with a significant drop of 2.14%. This decline, primarily due to negative net domestic migration, resulted in the loss of over 430,000 residents during this period.
Meanwhile, between July 1, 2022, and July 1, 2023, New York’s population decreased by a further 0.52%, resulting in a net loss of around 102,000 residents. Many New Yorkers attribute the high migration rates and population decline to increasing crime rates and increasing living costs.
New York City’s population decrease accounts for three-quarters of the state’s overall population decline between 2020 and 2023. In contrast, Oneonta is the fastest-growing city in New York. The city recorded a population increase of 18.9% between 2020 and 2022.
To check out more states that are losing population, visit 15 Fastest-Declining States in the US.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published on Insider Monkey.