The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE:EL) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Fabrizio Freda: And I would like to offer a bit of historical perspective on what happened during this COVID period and the volatility that this brought. I mean when you — because you were comparing in your question versus before COVID versus the 3 years ago previous — so take 2019. Our business in Mainland China versus 2019 is more than doubled. Our TR business today globally versus 2019 is by now, with this estimate that we are giving to you now, is actually well below. So — but it’s true that during this COVID period, the TR business, also driven by the unstructured phenomenon that we have discussed previously was actually up. But then by now, this has been reabsorbed. So the profile of the business in — with Chinese consumers in 2019 was that there was a base sales in Mainland China.

There was a lot of the sales to Chinese consumer that were happening around the world in their travel. This was estimated to be up to 40% of what was the total consumption at that time before COVID. And this — a lot of this was in travel retail and also was in the cities that were visited like, I don’t know, London, Paris, New York, Hong Kong, Tokyo, et cetera. So now during COVID, obviously, the frontier were all closed. So this consumption came back into Mainland China. In fact, our business in Mainland China today, as I said, has doubled the world was. And some of it went into travel retail, like Hainan development and all the other things that happened, which are very good for the long term. And some of it went into the unstructured business, which is actually going down now and is part of the readjustment.

And these are positive things for the long term. And so the resulting — the result of all these movements is frankly solid and sustainable for the long term because the results is a solid business in Mainland China, which we are supporting and will continue to support. We have built an R&D center. We have created all the abilities to be more locally relevant in the future and to continue to support this business and invest in this business and invest in this very important market for us in the long term that we believe is core to — also to our future growth algorithm. At the same time, the amount of volatile business that went into the TR in the period of COVID has been derisked and is going down. And as we said, we need to continue to derisk it in this fiscal year.

And that’s what we are planning and that’s what we are announcing in term of the resulting guidance of that. And the travel business, meaning the regular travelers and Chinese consumer that are traveling the world, this is gradually going up again and so will create good consumption by regular travelers. In this moment, it’s going up more in Asia than in the West. The travel into the West is still relatively limited, but we forecast this over time to continue to improve. And the lending place of these movements will be the sustainable profitable business that we are coming back to.

Bryan Spillane: Okay. So to be clear, we can get back to kind of the previous profit algorithm even if travel retail and basically Hainan is not as big as it was previously?

Fabrizio Freda: Yes, we believe so.

Operator: And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we’ve reached the end of today’s question-and-answer session. I’d like to turn the floor back over to Fabrizio for any closing remarks.

Fabrizio Freda: Thank you. And I just wanted to try to summarize this enormous moving part and make sure that we give you the clarity of what we are focused on at this point in this moment. So we expect calendar year 2023 to be the final, and frankly painful, post-COVID reset period for the company. We move forward with confidence as our fundamentals are strong in this attractive prestige beauty industry. Our calendar year-to-date retail sales performance remain very solid in all recovery markets and in general, both developed and emerging in the mid-single high digit that I quoted before. Our brand portfolio is better than ever with the recent acquisition of Tom Ford, solidifying our luxury strategy and The Ordinary, which we didn’t talk a lot in this call but is becoming a powerhouse brand at the entry of growing active derma segment and is definitely our fastest-growing brand in our portfolio.