The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (NYSE:EL) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

As of this moment, the retail — the solidity of the retail progress is already in the making. That’s the point we are trying to make. Anyway, on travel retail, we had a significant stock reduction in this first quarter. And we aim to be in line with the inventory expectation of retailers by the end of March. And we have visibility into these numbers. We have visibility. We have exactly the understanding for — with each one of our retailers on where we are today, what are the programs that we are doing in order to accelerate sales retail of the existing stocks and what are the programs to obviously replenish and sell in innovation and all what we need to do in these areas. And finally, how by end March, we aim to have the retail and the net aligned.

That’s the program.

Operator: Our next question comes from Filippo Falorni from Citi.

Filippo Falorni: So I wanted to ask a question on Mainland China. It’s the first quarter where you guys talked about a bit of a slowdown relative to prior quarters. So maybe, Fabrizio, can you give some context on the level of slowdown that you’re seeing in the category? And then from a competitive standpoint, we’ve seen some local brands doing a little bit better, more on the mass side. But have you seen any trade-down within the category, both on skin care and cosmetics?

Fabrizio Freda: Yes. No. First of all, the market was growing 2% in the first quarter in China. Our retail during this quarter was flat, but our retail in China calendar year-to-date is growing, and we are building market share. But in that specific quarter, the market growth went down to 2%. Now our estimate of the recovery of the beauty market in prestige was higher than that, and that is the — one of the key readjustments we are making in the — in projecting the year. That’s the point. And so this 2% is the current trend level. Also, as I said in my prepared remarks, the presale period of Tmall and particularly on — in general, the Singles Day, confirms a softer trend versus a year ago, and that’s why we are reflecting this confirmation.

Now we are more optimistic about the next part of the Singles Day events in November, but is — the presale was confirming a softer market. In term of your second part of the question, is the — there are local brands in mass and in masstige, which are doing well, we start doing well in China for sure. In prestige, the impact of that is for the moment limited. And so we see prestige being solid in comparison to mass in general. And we don’t see a big movement from prestige to mass at this point in time.

Operator: Our next question comes from Bryan Spillane from Bank of America.

Bryan Spillane: I wanted to go back to Jason English’s question regarding margins. And I guess, as we kind of look forward and try to think about the rebuild to the previous margin aspirations, how much of it will — do you expect to come from the expanded cost savings? And how much is just resetting the business mix? Because travel retail is so profitable. And so do we need travel retail to get back to kind of a similar percentage of sales as where it was 3 years ago? Or would you be able to get there if travel retail ended up being smaller for reasons given how cyclical it is?

Tracey Travis: Yes. No, it’s a great question. Given where travel retail is right now, and certainly, we, I’m sure many others are thinking about the future of travel retail, which we are very encouraged by in terms of a return to growth but a return to the prior levels? Don’t know. You have much now of the volume that has shifted to the local market. And I would expect to continue to see growth in the local market as well. So there may be a rebalance as it relates to the consumption for the Chinese consumer in particular as well as perhaps other consumer groups. So we’re not counting on travel retail to get back to prior levels. If it does, that’s great. But our profit recovery program, combined with some of the growth plans that we have for our markets and brands going forward, are not relying on that to return to profit margin — the profit margins that we had previously.