The E.W. Scripps Company (NASDAQ:SSP) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

And with our focus on live sports, momentum is on our side in the advertising market, too. Once again, we benefit from pay TV reach but aren’t limited by it. We are growing opportunity around it. Scripps is heavily leaning into the opportunity of free TV, and we’re making it even easier for media consumers with Tablo, which delivers the most popular linear programs via over the air right alongside another 65 or so premium fast channels. You could even think of Tablo as the only fast platform to offer the NFL and college sports. That in and of itself makes it a more compelling sports proposition than the new JV service, and it’s free. Tablo can now be found in most major retailers. Walmart.com launched in January. Amazon is the top retail partner accounting for about 60% of sales.

The Home Shopping Network launched Tablo in October with exceptional results, selling out its first airing in only a few minutes, and we expect HSN to drive significant portion of unit sales in 2024. As we move into this year, we’ll continue to explore partnerships, both regional and national, to expand our footprint and scale. Since we launched our latest version in August, we have had incredible engagement with users. The first-party data show us that on average, customers are watching two hours a day and that OTA programming accounts for most of that viewing. 50% of that time is spent watching live sports, news and talk shows. Speaking of data, Tablo is the only platform in the market that directly measures over-the-air viewing. Our back end measures all of the same data that set-top boxes do and more.

That valuable data and the monetization of the fast platform are the recurring revenue streams that drive value further downstream and will make up the average revenue per user metrics we’ll share with you in the future. While the Tablo platform makes TV easy, it’s live sports and live news that make linear television most relevant today. And that’s why we continue to aggressively pursue sports rights that are appropriate to our local market depth and the scale of our national reach with ION. For local broadcasters, in particular, winning sports rights is yet another catalyst for the growth of over the air among cord cutters and for the durability of the pay TV bundle. It’s a growth strategy that’s creating immediate new value. For just the two National Hockey League partnerships that we already have underway in Los Angeles and Phoenix, we project a 3% lift in core advertising revenue for 2024, and we continue to see many partnership opportunities with the teams ahead in both the near term and long term.

On the national side, last year, we completed a very successful first season with the WNBA. Here’s to the power of ION’s reach and our CTV plus OTA plus pay TV strategy. The WNBA Spotlight on ION, the Friday Night franchise we launched, grew the WNBA’s audience by 30%, while drawing a hefty premium above typical ad rates on ION for that time period. 65% of the revenue last season was from new-to-Scripps advertisers. This year, we’ll be back with the WNBA on Friday nights, and it will be women’s soccer on Saturday nights. Scripps is proud to be launching a franchise night doubleheader for the NWSL as part of the league’s landmark rights agreement. We start the season on Saturday, March 16. Sponsorships and advertising sales are well underway and having the intended effect on our whole Networks portfolio.

2023 was a tough year as a result of an unsteady and uncertain economy, but there’s a lot to celebrate in the work this company is doing to best position itself for continuously improving near-term performance and long-term value creation. And now operator, we’re ready for your questions.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] We’ll begin with the line of Dan Kurnos with the Benchmark Company. Please go ahead.

Daniel Kurnos: Thanks, good morning. Adam, maybe just to start with sports. Could you just give us your thoughts on the impact of maybe Diamond being allowed to survive, I guess, for another 18 months, given the cash inflow over there and what that might mean for your ability to go after incremental local sports rights? And then, look, obviously, you’ve been out there a lot on the JV, and I think most people believe that it’s going to be deminimis to the marketplace, if it even gets off the ground. But there’s obviously been a lot of commentary about sports just moving to streaming over time. And I know that broadcast is included in all of these packages, but just kind of your thoughts on being able to sustain negotiating power and leverage within the sports industry as more and more sports shift to streaming.

Adam Symson: Yes, good morning Dan, thanks for the questions. On the Amazon investment into the RSN, I guess, near term, it means the teams are committed to the RSN contracts until either the RSN breaches those deals or in the event Diamond seeks some sort of discount that the teams decide to reject, which will then open up the opportunity for teams to move in a different direction. Longer term, nothing about this investment changes the reality that the RSNs can’t deliver the reach that team owners need given the erosion we’re seeing in pay TV. And that’s why they continue to turn to broadcasters. So all of this to say, the RSN model is still in critical condition. I think you described it as sort of still thriving. This investment wasn’t, in any way, a cure for what ails the RSN model, and I continue to expect that rights will move in the direction of local broadcast.

And I continue to expect that Scripps will benefit from those moves. Relative to the joint venture, I don’t know if there’s more to say than what I already said in my prepared remarks, I guess I would say, I think, there is no math that supports the idea that local rights can move to streaming or move to a D2C product and support a team’s need to field a good team and to win. We’ve modeled it every other way. And while streaming will continue to be an important part on the local end for incremental reach, these teams need broadcast reach, and that’s the direction they’re all moving in. So my enthusiasm for the opportunity for Scripps Sports has not dampened at all. On the national side, I will tell you, speaking to the leagues, the owners, I think it’s safe to say that reach continues to be the primary component for all of these team deals.

During the Super Bowl week, you heard Roger Good ell say that he expects at least 90% of all games for the NFL to be broadcast on broadcast television, again, demonstrating the important power of reach. I don’t think any of these leagues want to impair their assets over the long term by completely going behind a paywall and being inaccessible to most Americans, especially as we continue to see that streaming landscape get more fragmented, not consolidated. So we believe there will be a continued opportunity for broadcast networks, new opportunity for networks like ION, and of course, we think the continued opportunity for our affiliates that are partnered with the big four networks.

Daniel Kurnos: Got it. For the record, Adam, I said survive, not thrive for the RSN. I think it’s [Indiscernible] too, but that’s a different story. Can you just — or at least just quickly give us a thought on the shape of national for the year just given sort of a mix between general market and DR still kind of lagging a bit?

Lisa Knutson: Yes. Part of my prepared comments, I talked about the fact that, obviously, across the marketplace, we had a lowered upfront. And so therefore, we’re really being aggressive in making up that ground in the scatter marketplace but also in DR. I am seeing — certainly, we saw it in fourth quarter, and we’re seeing it again in first quarter, where CPMs in fourth quarter were up 4% over 2022, Q4. And this year, we’re seeing CPMs continue to be up versus our upfront pricing. In January alone, they were up 35%. So I’m seeing good momentum, certainly in the general market space and the scatter marketplace, I think, the other really interesting story for Scripps. And I think in Adam’s remarks, we’re really, really well positioned to capture CTV revenue both from an upfront perspective as we go to market, but also continuing to drive organic growth, but also some of the new launches that I mentioned in my remarks.

Daniel Kurnos: Got it. Super helpful. Thank you both. Appreciate it.

Adam Symson: Thanks Dan.

Operator: We’ll now go to the line of Steven Cahall with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Steven Cahall: Thanks. So three for me. So maybe first, Adam, I appreciate your comment about facts on the sports streaming JV rather than speculation. So I was wondering if you could just tell us what discussions you’ve had, especially with ABC and Fox as well and whether those discussions have confirmed that this will be classified as a vMVPD in the minds of those counterparties. I think that would be really constructive to the market. And then Lisa, just on national ads, maybe picking up on the last question. So a big sequential improvement in the Q1 guide. Does that turn positive by Q2? It sounds like there’s a lot of potential for it to do so, especially with where scatter is. And then finally, just on the political guide.

How do we think about how much of that versus your 2020 political is due to just a difference in races? I think there you just have fewer congressional races. And then how much of that is attributable to the comment you made about Trump’s pack putting more towards legal and less towards ads? Thank you.

Adam Symson: Well, Steve, I think I’ve said over and over, I’ve had direct conversations with executives at the top of Disney and with Fox, and they describe this as it is, the virtual MVPDs, and they describe the arrangement will be consistent with the arrangement affiliates have with other virtual MVPDs. That will be carried along because clearly, our broadcast networks or their broadcast networks are core to the offering, given how much of the NFL — or really, the only NFL offering will come through the broadcast stations and that we will be compensated in exactly the same mechanism that we’re compensated for other virtual MVPDs. So I don’t know if we can make it any clearer. If, in fact, these — and this is literally what was said to me on the day of the announcement.

If these executives, as they say, are true to their word and will aggressively pursue cord cutters in order to bring them back to linear television, this stands to benefit Scripps in incremental distribution and incremental fees. Is that — I mean, is that helpful?

Steven Cahall: It is, yes.

Adam Symson: Okay. I mean this comes directly from ABC and Fox. And this is consistent with what all of the affiliates have been saying. This is just another virtual MVPD, and we will be compensated for the carriage of our affiliates through this virtual MVPD.

Lisa Knutson: So Steven, we are seeing positive momentum that started, I think, in — certainly in our performance in fourth quarter, and moving into first quarter with our guide, we are optimistic as we continue to see the strength in scatter and in DR rates. Both rates are up year-over-year and year-to-date and first quarter compared to 2023. So we’re really aggressively pursuing that — I think we mentioned in our guide coming in potentially flat to last year, which I think is just probably certainly best in peer performance, and we expect that momentum to continue throughout the year. As for political, there are differences, and I mentioned some of those differences in my prepared remarks. After redistricting, there were certainly less competitive house races than we saw in 2020.

Some of the presidential toss-up states have changed. Florida was always squarely a swing state, and with sort of migration into Florida over the last several years, that has changed. And so we’re seeing some of those changes affect and give a little bit of less visibility into where the money will actually be spent given the top races this year. I think I mentioned the competitive races for the Senate, which is really where we’re very, very strong this year. And we expect and are already seeing really great spending in Montana early this year and also in the back half of the year already laying in a good foundation for the year.

Steven Cahall: Thank you.

Operator: We’ll now go to the line of Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners. Please go ahead.

Craig Huber: Yes, hi, thank you. My first question, if I could, let’s focus on cost, if we could, please. Maybe Jason or somebody. How are you feeling about your cost base this year? I mean you’ve obviously talked to this $40 million plus cost savings plan that should be, I guess, fully in the numbers by the middle of the year. Are you expecting that you’re going to have to step up further on the cost-cutting front? Are you guys — or are you guys pretty comfortable where your costs are at right now as you kind of think about where your ad revenue trends are, etcetera?

Jason Combs: I think that from a cost perspective, we have been aggressive with the restructure. We will have more than $40 million in sort of run rate annualized savings by the middle of this year. And I think the focal area will be just continuing to manage things as efficiently as possible. We have things this year when you talk about political, when you talk about some of the green shoots that Lisa is talking about in terms of the national ad marketplace that should be great benefits to the bottom line in addition to our tight expense management. But I think you’ll see us continue to manage things really tightly throughout the rest of the year.

Craig Huber: And Jason, a housekeeping question, please. Your retrans subs, what was the decline year-over-year that goes into your retrans revenue number that you had in the fourth quarter, please?

Jason Combs: We were down mid-single digits, which is consistent with where we’ve been for a while. It actually was a slight improvement versus the prior quarter but still in that mid-single digits net percent range.