The Coca-Cola Company (KO): Too Much Fizz?

Reflecting fear of terrorism and concerns that the global economy may be slowing, the S&P 500 and the narrower, price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:DJI) both fell 2.1% this week — stocks’ worst performance since November,

The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO): Insiders are selling
On Friday, as shares of Dow component The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) were making a record intraday high (adjusted for splits and dividends), respected financial weekly Barron’s reported that four insiders at Coke sold shares in an aggregate amount of $26.1 million.

Chief Financial Officer Gary Fayard made the largest sale — his first transaction on record — exercising options to buy 224,000 shares that were set to expire no earlier than this coming December and selling the shares at an average price of $41. The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO)’s stock closed at $42.66 on Friday, up 1.3% on the day. Fayard continues to own 188,944 shares directly and 356,597 shares through his spouse and multiple trusts.

Are the shares now overvalued? As of Friday’s close, they were valued at 26.7 times the trailing 12 months’ normalized earnings-per-share. The last time they traded at a higher multiple was during the second quarter of 2008; here’s how the shares have performed relative to the S&P 500 since then:

KO Total Return Price data by YCharts

The shares have smashed the index! Even on an absolute basis, they have handed shareholders a tidy return. If that performance is anything to go by, the shares can’t have been significantly overvalued at the beginning of that period. (In fact, the average price-to-earnings multiple was higher than the current figure in every quarter from 1991 through September 2004, although, naturally, growth prospects were different then than they are now.)

While the recent insider sales are no cause for alarm, as the valuation inches up, The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) investors ought to be dialling down their return expectations. The shares — along with those of other high-quality franchises — have had a good run over the past several years. The odds that they will reproduce that performance over the next several years are decreasing.

The article Coca-Cola: Too Much Fizz in the Shares? originally appeared on Fool.com and is written by Alex Dumortier, CFA.

Fool contributor Alex Dumortier, CFA, has no position in any stocks mentioned; you can follow him on LinkedIn. The Motley Fool recommends Coca-Cola.

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