Joan Solotar
And do you think we can get to a point where we have Euro-Dollar parity?
Byron Wien
I know that are people talking about it. I’m fond of sticking my neck out but I’m not fond of having it cut off. So my view is that one to one against the Euro is too much to ask for but I can tell you that the day that happens, you are going to be able to get a plane ticket to London. In my view, the dollar will show some additional strength here but I don’t think it will go to parity anytime soon.
Joan Solotar
And Byron, where are you getting the most pushback?
Byron Wien
I’m getting a lot of pushback on the Russian Surprise. The people say that Putin doesn’t mind Russia suffering and that he is not going to yield on Ukraine. That he may run out of foreign exchange reserves but he will figure out some way around that. And that he won’t take the action that is really necessary in order to remove the sanctions and part of that is related to my feelings of the Russian people will turn against him and most people don’t believe that is likely, because the media will control that, or the military will control that. And I think that may be a too Draconian view of it. My view is that Russia is in serious trouble and some of it happened because of natural causes, some of it happened because of Putin and I think there is a turnaround coming there. Again it is a Surprise but it is the one that I have reasonable amount of conviction about, just as I do about the Iranian one.
The Surprises are based on not extrapolating what appears in the press daily. If you extrapolated that, you would assume that there never would be a Ukrainian deal and that Russia would always be hostile. But it is often good to think in this continuous terms and that is what I am trying to do in The Ten Surprises. What I am saying is, Putin is riding high after the Sochi Olympics. All of these things emanated after that. He was trying to press his bet and become acknowledged as the world leader of eminence when Obama, the punitive world leader was sagging. Yet it backfired on him. I think he realizes that there is time to get up from the table and walk away and that time has come.
The same is true of Iran. The Iranian people are yearning to participate in the good fortune of the 21st century. The sanctions are hurting Iran. The nuclear weapon isn’t going to help Iran that much. They should be more worried about ISIS and the Sunni incursion in Syria and Iraq. So, I think there could be an important change in Iran and Russia and if those things took place, that would be very positive for the economies and equity markets around the world, including Europe and Japan. So if all Surprises take place, other good things would happen. So that is what I am hoping for in the Surprises for 2015.
Joan Solotar
And just one final — I mean there is always something to be bearish or nervous about and so today with the Ukraine needing substantial amount of money, folks worried about Greece and the US talk about the wall of student debt continuing to climb, are there any of these areas that you particularly concerned with?
Byron Wien
Well, longer term I am concerned about the obligations of Social Security and Medicare but not near-term. But I am more concerned — the big worry I have in the Ten Surprises is the cyber attacks. I think that they are going to occur more frequently and more profoundly and if I am right on that second Surprise, and a major money center bank is closed and you have money in that bank, and you can’t put money in or take money out, and you are worried that when they open again, they won’t have your right balance, that is going to make you very apprehensive and going to make you want to hoard cash. We may go back to mattresses as a place of sort. So, I am probably more worried about cyber terrorism thank I am about student loans.
Joan Solotar
Right. Thank you Byron. A lot to think about. Very very interesting. Do you have any final comments?
Byron Wien
No, I think we are going to make some money this year and I think some good things are going to happen geo-politically. I hope I am right. But if I am not, believe me, I will be here a year from now to explain why things went wrong.
Joan Solotar
Well it is a great way to start the year. So thanks everyone for joining and we’ll see you next quarter. Thanks Byron.
Byron Wien
Big thanks to all of you for listening in.
