The Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:TBBK) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

So we think total fees 12% to low end, we think we might get to 15% next year for total fee growth in all Fintech activities including new credit sponsorship activity. So we think it’s going to be a really great year. We’ve got great visibility. Our base is dramatically higher than it was even a few years ago. So growing at that rate is a challenge but it’s so exciting because they’re large programs and we’re adding 5 or 6 a year. And they’re exciting organizations with great volume and they’re early in their life cycle, so they haven’t broken through those tiers like we’ve had for a very long relationships like [indiscernible] or PayPal. So we’re very excited about 2024 and 2025.

Frank Schiraldi: Great. And then just on — obviously, the interest rate picture is a little bit uncertain here. Just in terms of margin dynamics from here, maybe even beyond the next couple of quarters? I mean, do you think by design, you’re sort of getting close to peak here and that you can kind of lock in these levels on a go-forward basis? What’s your thoughts on margin?

Damian Kozlowski: Yes. So yes. So what will happen, obviously, there’s a — we have a quick — our duration of our portfolio is fairly short and we did that on purpose. So our NIM is not only because of the Fed funds increases but also because of the repricing of the credits that we have. So at 1 point, we’re at 6% and now we’re 8.5%-plus and we’re getting a new NIM of 6.5% plus, right? So that’s our NIM now is 5% or 7% but we’re putting new loans on that are substantially higher than that. So you’ll see the NIM continue to move up. The inflection point is when we obviously buy long-term securities and normalize the balance sheet. Obviously, they won’t have the same — you’ll get an impact on NIM, even though our net income will go up, obviously, because we’ll get it spread over Fed funds and it definitely a spread over our depending how much deposits we have at that time, you’ll get a less impact in NIM.

We can’t really predict that, obviously. But we know generally that when there’s a deinversion of the yield curve, you’re going to get around 80, 100 basis points on those longer-term bonds and we’re going to buy around to just normalize our balance sheet to our peer group. We still would have to buy at least $1 billion, if not $1.5 billion of securities. So we can’t kind of model that out and see the impact. We just don’t know when that’s going to be. And what our base case is that happens in the middle of the year. And that’s when we start our bond purchases, probably around $250 million a quarter and that would add incremental — it might affect your NIM depending on our deposit levels but it’s also going to impact, obviously, your net income.

And with us returning so much capital, it will obviously impact our ROA and ROE in a positive way.

Frank Schiraldi: Great. And then just lastly on — I know there’s several scenarios for next year to get to that $425 million. But in terms of the most likely. How do you see — obviously, revenues are going to outpace expenses here. But do you think you’re at a point of scale here where we’re going to see low single-digit expense growth. Do you think we’ll still see double-digit expense growth just given the amount of new partnerships you’re putting on? Any sort of model guide on that front?