The AZEK Company Inc. (NYSE:AZEK) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Phil Ng: Got you. Okay, that’s helpful. Pete, I think last quarter you were talking about a $30 million price cost, potential tailwind for 2023. You threw out a few numbers today, $30 million for 2023, on an annualized basis $50 million. Does this $30 million compared to last quarter $30 or doesn’t just because some of the timing difference. Because since you’ve given that guidance to your point, some of the inputs have fallen and certainly PVC prices have fallen pretty meaningfully from the peak levels that I think was embedded in that $30 million number, that you called out last quarter?

Peter Clifford: Yeah, I mean part of it is the 4.5 month lag of the timing of it. Some of it moving to 2024 and the other piece to a smaller extent is look stint is, look, we’ve had some other overhead type inflation in 2023, that’s kind of new on the horizon and it’s really kind of two — two things specifically. One, our energy costs have moved up pretty substantially. And then secondarily our property insurance — the property insurance markets have been pretty brutal last two years and we’ve seen significant inflation there as well.

Phil Ng: Okay.

Jesse Singh: Yeah, but to answer — but — to answer your question, what — the way to think of it is, it’s the $30 million plus — what Pete is highlighting which is $50 million on a — on an annualized basis, right. So there are two different elements. One is the price raw material carryover that we’ve talked about a $30 and what we’re talking about is additional cost in sourcing actions that add up to that $50 from where we sit now. And then, as Pete pointed out some of that will get consumed with certain elements of inflation, but it’s additive.

Phil Ng: Okay. That’s helpful. Great color guys.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of John Lovallo with UBS. Your line is now open.

Spencer Kaufman: Hey guys, good afternoon. This is actually Spencer Kaufman on for John. Thank you for the questions. Maybe the first one, what gives you guys have confidence that the inventory adjustment will be done by the end of the first quarter? And do you think that maybe price can become more of a lever for the composite decking manufacturers either gain share, just maintain reasonable volume levels?

Jesse Singh: Yeah, so let me take the latter and I’ll have Pete take the former. Just as a reminder of the structure of the market, we’ve got good, better, best, premium. We strongly believe that we have the right portfolio and the best way for us to gain market share is to show the value of our offering and to drive material conversion in each of the segments that we play in and to either expand position or to continue to drive conversion. So that’s expanding position with contractors and dealers and retailers. And then continuing to drive conversion at both the contractor and the consumer level. In doing that you need the right products for the right segment and we don’t believe lowering price is a — is a good strategy nor that we would consider executing as we move forward. And I’ll let Peter take the front part of that.

Peter Clifford: Yeah, and just add on, I mean, I think what gives us confidence is we were planning on seeing more of the destock happening in the fourth quarter, which we did see happen. Two, as you know, we have about a one-month lag on sort of getting data from our channel partners to really dial in inventory. So we’ve been kind of staying close to that obviously each month and we see the data real time. And then lastly, I think prudently with our view of demand and unit volume being down 10%, which is 5% incrementally lower than what we were thinking or suggesting last time. One of the consequences of that is, it does drive us to take out more inventory to get to a lower level on both dollars and days and we think being conservative on inventory right now, reduces the risk for the full year.