The AZEK Company Inc. (NYSE:AZEK) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

At a dealer level, I think it similarly has the potential to vary, where some — some dealers feel good about their markets and they would expect to take almost as much as last year and other dealer are more conservative relative to their markets and might take a little less. So if you add all that up, it’s probably safe to assume as we look at Q2, which is calendar Q1 that it would be logical that it would potentially be a modestly slower ramp, although will guide Q2 when we get there, but that is logical to assume that it would be a slower ramp that it was in prior year. Now what that does is, it really sets up Q3 and Q4 to not have — first, we won’t have the same types of inventory corrections, but it also sets us up to have more seasonally oriented demand rather than kind of perfectly trying to — trying to land the plane relative to the right amount of inventory in the system.

So hopefully that gives you a general. And then as we get to Q4, obviously, we’re lapping — we are lapping what we just talked about, which is a very large inventory correction in the channel. And at that point, your — yourself who is in a good position and you just want to make sure that you’re — you got the right amount of inventory in the channel.

Tim Wojs: Okay. Okay. that sounds good. And I mean that’s — that’s kind of the thinking that you are incorporating in the commentary around guidance, right. Just kind of what you talked about?

Jesse Singh: Yeah. Well, once again, we’re not guiding Q2, I think it’s important that what I think Pete’s referring to is the subsequent three quarters, right. We know we’re getting a lot behind us in Q1. And we have estimates that we talked about, of the market being down 10 — the aggregate market being down 10 as — unit volume basis, as we work our way through those final three quarters. And then based on that, it’s really a discussion of geography and clearly, we’ll give you clarity on that. But I think the takeaway here is that we’re very confident in our ability to deliver those three quarters and manage through that given the margin tailwinds that start to come in as we lap our way through more expensive inventory.

Tim Wojs: Okay. Okay, good. And then — and then I guess as a follow-up, what is the pricing carryover that you’re assuming for ’23?

Peter Clifford: Kind of mid-single digits, low-to-mid single digits for the year. Obviously all of its really in the first half of the year, but the full-year impact is kind of low single digits.

Tim Wojs: Okay. Okay, great. Thanks guys. I appreciate it.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Phil Ng with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Phil Ng: Hey, guys, I appreciate all the color, not easy in this environment. I guess the first question I have is the destock and production curtailment impact is obviously give be more heavily weighted in 1Q, anyway to size up the split between 1Q versus 2Q? And should we expect EBITDA to be at least flat in 2Q on a year-over-year basis?

Peter Clifford: Yeah, I think we’re going to steer clear of kind of formal guidance on 2Q. I think we want to get closer to that. I’m highly confident we can say we expect the quality of earnings to sequentially meaningfully improve from 1Q to 2Q and that’s I think about as much as we probably can responsibly say.

Jesse Singh: Yeah. And maybe another kind of way to help me out on that is — we’re saying that there is a fair amount that’s going to impact you one, there’s certainly going to be some that impacts Q2, although not pronounced at the same level, so we need to work our way through to see how that flows through and we need to see what the revenue was.