The Allstate Corporation (NYSE:ALL) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

So the approach we’ve taken so far in California, we’re comfortable with. We’re going to continue to lean in. We always have the option to change course if things change. But so far, we’ve had success with the path we’ve taken, and we’re going to continue to push on that.

C. Gregory Peters: Thank you for the answers.

Operator: Thank you, one moment for our next question. And our next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo. Your question please.

Elyse Greenspan: Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question is just on capital, right? You guys said you expect to complete the buyback program by the €“ still by the end of the third quarter of 2023. Can you just help us understand what metrics you’re looking at to judge the capital adequacy of Allstate Insurance Company at the end of 2022? I think in the past, you’ve said you look at RBC ratios there. Can you give us a sense of where you ended 2022 your RBC was, and where you would like that to be over time?

Tom Wilson: Elyse, I’ll let Jess give you some specifics, but we obviously have a long history of managing capital that both balances our financial strength, growth returns to shareholders. We have plenty of capital to grow our business and pursue attractive risk and return opportunities. We do it in a much more sophisticated way than RBC. So for example, when Jess talked about the things we had done in the investment portfolio, that we allocate specific amounts of capital to different investment allocations. So when we dial up interest rate risk, we put a little more capital up for it. If we dial down equities, we put up less capital, and we believe we’re really well capitalized and don’t have any issues. Jess, do you want to go from there?

Jess Merten: Yes. Thanks, Tom. So Elyse, I think as it relates to your question on RBC, we haven’t disclosed the RBC for the year. That will come out in due course as it relates to the actual RBC in insurance company, and we don’t publish a target. I think Tom hit on the right point, because you asked what are the metrics that we look at as we think about the repurchases. And we really do focus on our sophisticated economic capital model that looks at a comprehensive view of risk across types around the enterprise. And we use that as the basis for capital management. We obviously focus on RBC rating agency metrics, a variety of other things. But we don’t have specific targets that we published as it relates to risk-based capital.

So €“ and I really like to take it up a level and just think about how we manage it overall using our sophisticated, risk-based capital framework. We remain confident in our overall capital position and the capital position of the insurance subsidiaries.

Elyse Greenspan: Thanks. And then my second question is going back to some of what you guys have been discussing with modifying your claims practices. Have you guys tested the predictive modeling on an external data against your own internal data and seeing a meaningful benefit? And should we €“ how €“ over what time period should we think about the rollout of the program over the next year, 12 months to 24 months, on what type of time frame should we be thinking about?

Tom Wilson: Elyse, I’m not sure which predictive models are you talking about the €“ I mean we use predictive models for a lot in claims. Was there one specifically you were interested in?

Elyse Greenspan: Well, I was talking about some of the kind of changes you guys have stressed that you’re kind of looking to make on the claims side of things.