The Allstate Corporation (NYSE:ALL) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

It’s up mid-single digits compared to last year, still skewing less to rush hour times which benefit frequency and more to nonpeak hours. But that trend has been pretty stable over the last several quarters and we feel like we’re in a period of stability in terms of driving behavior. So net-net frequency is up modestly. It’s a small component of pure premium. So just to give you a couple of numbers. When you adjust out the intra-year impact in pure premium, it’s up about 9.7% year-over-year in the quarter and we said severity was up 9% [ph]. So you can see the modest impact that frequency is having, again, as people drive a bit more than they were a year ago.

David Motemaden: Got it. And you’re saying it’s a little bit more stable now, so maybe flattens out there at those levels?

Mario Rizzo: Yes, David, the trend has been pretty stable over the last several quarters in terms of when we look at miles driven for our book.

David Motemaden: Got it. And then for my follow-up, just to add a question on Slide 13 and I appreciate this information on the distribution channels. I was hoping — it looks like you guys track the TAM by channel pretty closely. Within the exclusive agent channel, how has that TAM been growing — and I guess, I’m under the impression that it’s been shrinking at the expense of the direct and independent agent channels. So just given that backdrop, I’m wondering if you’re seeing signs that you think you can sort of buck that trend and start to grow within your exclusive agency channel?

Tom Wilson: Let me David maybe a couple of thoughts. First, there’s a lot of analysis on it. People want to tend to like assume that it’s a straight line. And actually, there’s competition for the customer amongst all of those. So our effort to reduce the cost that Mario talked about in providing an agent is to give customers better value which should take share away from some of the other 2. The independent agents also are a good place people want to come where they don’t want to just buy from an insurance company. They want somebody to shop around for them and want them to do the work for it. On the direct channel, obviously, with increased connectivity, the direct channel has certainly grown. But it’s also growing a lot because billions of dollars of advertising going to it.

So it’s an overall ecosystem, I guess, I would say. And so we look at it and like, we want to be there. People want to have buy from a company like Allstate. Allstate brand name, want to go to that agent. We want to be there for that person with everything they have. The same thing if they want someone to shop or on them, don’t want to do the work. We want to be in that independent agent channel. And then in a direct channel, if they want to buy directly then. And what we are doing is using the technology between those various things make it an even better value proposition. So we showed you that cell phone which had the 3 offers in it. Imagine an agent now being able to not have to ask you a whole bunch of stuff; what’s your deductible, what kind of stuff.

But we pre-populate it with, here’s what we think David’s deductible should be, offer David this package you put them in a different position. So we look at it really as sort of organic and it moves between there. And we want to be there for all of our customers. So it’s not like we think 1 is going to win and the other is going to lose. It’s just a constant competition to just do a better job for the customers that want to buy it that way. Jonathan, we’ll take one more question.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our final question for today comes from the line of Meyer Shields from KBW.

Unidentified Analyst: It’s Jen [ph] on for me. Most of my questions are answered just 1 on the growth in 2024. So what is your expectation and plan for next year? Is the nonstandard auto still be the key growth driver — any color on that would be great?