The AES Corporation (NYSE:AES) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Steve Coughlin: Yes Durgesh, our plan is €“ just on each call, we will give updates to the extent we have updates on the construction program, as well as the tax credit expectations throughout the year on the calls as well.

Durgesh Chopra: Got it. And thanks, Steve. And just one last one. I noticed the 2023 to 2025 PPA finding is, again, very healthy 14 gigawatts to 17 gigawatts, but you’re not, sort of giving us an annual number this year like you did in 2022, which was 4.5 gigawatts to 5.5 gigawatts and you came in right in that range. Are you expecting that 2023 to 2025 signings to be lumpy or should we still expect right, the new PPAs in the range each year?

Andres Gluski: I would expect, honestly, them to be right around that, sort of 4.5 megawatts, 5.5 megawatts every year, but we decided to a multi-year range because there is some lumpiness. I mean, we do have some projects, which are like 1 gigawatt. And it’s the same thing. The signing could happen in January instead of December. So, we wanted to give a €“ basically, think of it more as sort of a rolling number, but again, we feel good about being able to reach that range.

Durgesh Chopra: Got it. Thanks guys. And congrats on the BNEF recognition again this year. I appreciate the time.

Andres Gluski: Thanks a lot.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Cameron Lochridge: Hi, there. Good morning. This is actually Cameron Lochridge on for Julien. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to maybe come back real quick to the idea of the renewal with backlog and how maybe that influences 7% to 9% growth CAGR that you guys have laid out. I appreciate that we reaffirm that through 2025, but given where the backlog is and where the growth is expected to come from over the next several years, is there any reason we should not be perhaps rolling that forward out beyond 2025 and continuing to underwrite to that or is there something else that may be driving that either higher or lower beyond 2025?

Andres Gluski: Yes. I mean, look, let’s say, we have a 12.2 gigawatt backlog, of which about 5.5% are under construction now. And a good portion of that is going to come online between now and 2025. So, there’s no reason to think of a change. If anything, the market continues to grow, and we see a shortage. I don’t know if €“ Steve, you want to comment…

Steve Coughlin: Yes, I would say the backlog is at 12.2 and we’re delivering this year plus potentially some of that upside from the . So that leaves still about to be delivered over the next few years. So, we feel really good about the commissioning coming through 2025 to support the growth. And then as Andres has covered, the pipeline in the U.S. is 51 gigawatts and it is continuing to mature. So, we’ll talk more at Investor Day about beyond 2025, but I feel really good about the growth expectations.

Andres Gluski: Yes. This is not a market that is not growing very rapidly. And we do see pent-up demand. What we do see is that because a lot of people did not deliver in 2022, we see pent-up demand. So, what we have to do is really make sure that we’re getting the returns that we want and really going after the value-add on those projects, but it’s not for a of projects by any means.

Cameron Lochridge: Understood. Understood. Thank you both. Maybe just going back to 2023 and looking at guidance, I know you’re looking at $0.27 a share from the new renewables in 2023. I kind of wanted to unpack that a little bit. In terms of how much, if you could quantify, how much of that $0.27 is, you know we’ll call it a roll forward from projects that were placed in service in 4Q 2022? And is there any reason that was meaningfully different or will be meaningfully different this year thinking about the $0.10 a share that could potentially slip into 2024?