The AES Corporation (NYSE:AES) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

So in the net, again, you’re right about some of the big blocks, but I really think that — I feel very confident about our numbers, what they’re going to look like ’28 forwards because we have a really a pull position in all these new technologies and new sectors that are opening up. So there’s not going to be a cliff that were pushed off into ’28. I want to make that clear. As we’ve made clear in the past, there’s no cliff in ’26. So we manage — we have a lot of variables, a lot of levers. So we’re making sure that we have a smooth transition. So our real problem is not one of demand. There’s a tremendous amount of demand, tremendous opportunities, is that what we want to make sure is that we’re maximizing value per share and taking advantage of it and being smart in the best combination of levers that we pull.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: No. Look, I get it. It makes sense. And just to clarify, the select assets, though, those are the ones that the PPAs are expiring or the — otherwise been regulatory issues, right? Again, I think that’s a nice catch all, right? If that’s the way you’re framing it, one or the other?

Andres Gluski: Well, that’s correct. I mean that we have some assets that may be still under contract and that — it’s going to be — it’s looking more difficult to get regulatory approval to retire those assets in ’25.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: Right. Yes, indeed, right. There’s a couple of them that stand out, if you will, that would seem to fit that right?

Andres Gluski: I guess.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: I know you don’t want to be too specific [indiscernible]. I’m sorry, I’m trying to be less specific here. Quickly, if I can pivot here real quickly. Yes, go for it.

Steve Coughlin: I was just going to say, there’s a number of ways we’re exiting both the retirements and sales. So looking at this, we have 7 gigawatts of coal. We’ve already announced and the exits of half of that. So you’re talking about 3.5% roughly remaining. And we’re not talking about that whole amount. Even a small portion of that are these assets that will be selectively considered.

Andres Gluski: Yes. as I said, it’s a small part of the 3 that’s remaining.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: Yes. Okay. Sorry, I just wanted to try to put that in a box a little bit more. And just to clarify this, the partial monetization, how do you think about Fluence here just to hit that a little bit more squarely? I know it’s a sensitive subject, whatever you can offer here about how you think about that through the plan? You talk about beginning next year here on sell-downs bit large, not specific to the new technologies bucket. Whatever you can offer?

Andres Gluski: We can’t call for much that we haven’t said already. I mean what we’ve said is that we are really as an accelerator of new technologies. We create a lot of applications together. They help us. That’s why we’re the leader, I think, in the premium markets. But over time, we will monetize the positions. It’s not just Fluence. We have other investments as well. And those new technologies have progressed very well. So we have other companies besides Fluence. But I’m not — we really can’t provide any further color on that.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: And you feel confident in the previous marks in the other technologies? I mean, I know it’s been a little bit of time there, but that’s important as well.

Andres Gluski: Sure. I mean — there are different ones of levels of maturity. But of course, you have Uplight, which is, I think, proceeding well and incorporating more product offerings and becoming part of Schneider Electric’s energy efficiency offerings. But then we have other ones that are in earlier stages. And whether they will create a lot of value outside of what they create for us. So certainly, one of the more exciting ones is the building of solar farms with robotics, I think, has a lot of promise. If you look at a longer term sort of four years out there, I would expect a lot from that. There’s a lot — we’re doing a lot with AI operationally for us. I mean today, we use AI on the operations of our wind farms of next-day predictions for energy demand and weather.

We’re also using — Fluence is using on its bidding engines, but there’s much, much more. We have collaborated with some of the technology companies on things like grid visualization, et cetera, which I think will become part and parcel of how ISOs manage their build-outs and dispatches and reaction to natural catastrophes. And we do have a — we would receive part of the royalties from the sales of the technology companies because we co-created them with them. So these are all things that are not in our numbers, but I think we’ll we will be able increasingly to have significant cost savings and greater efficiencies from applying them. And in some cases, we’ll be able to monetize these over time at the right time when market conditions are right.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: Yes, absolutely. Sorry. And just a quick clarification, more setting expectations ahead. You guys have done a lot on the new origination front. You flagged it at the outset, this 5 gigawatt number, I think. Just to set expectations, you’ve also done a number of acquisitions of backlog here, too. How does that mesh with your commentary about origination, a? And b, should we expect a steady cadence of announcements of further backlog acquisitions here as some of these have been the higher price points? Again, I just want to tackle that directly and give you an opportunity to kind of bifurcate and clearly set expectations.

Andres Gluski: Look, we — I think you have to — when you think about what we’re doing is we’re making — creating the most value of the different assets we have. So we did our first sale of — in the pipeline, if you will, with the DTA, where we actually don’t build the project, but we sell a development project because we felt that, that was the greatest creation of value. So sometimes from our pipeline, we may be doing this because that’s the best use of that pipeline. As I said in the past, probably the most attractive thing for us to do is to acquire late-stage development projects when — especially when we have a premium customer who needs that energy. And why? Well, because — well, you have a development project, it’s some cost if you have to invest to create that development project.

And so you don’t know what is the conversion rate of your pipeline. So if you have something that’s in late stage your conversion rate is basically one if you have the client. So it’s a very good risk-adjusted rate of return. So we’re going to be doing all those things. In the case of one of our utilities, they’re buying one of the projects that have been developed by somebody else. We’re selling one from the pipeline. Others are going to be repowering. So, we’ll use all of the means at our disposal to create shareholder value. So I don’t think it’s — the way to think about this correctly, is just pipeline, greenfield through final delivery is the best way to create value. I think it’s really — the most important really is having the right projects in the right markets and the right clients and thinking about how can you best satisfy what the clients’ needs are.