David Strauss: Scott, can you say specifically how much revenue is in there for FLRAA? And how would we expect to ramp beyond 2023 in terms of revenue? A – Scott Donnelly No. We’re not going to break out the specifics of the individual programs, but I think clearly, it will ramp as we go into ’24, ’25 and obviously, I think probably for quite some time. I mean, I think this program will be a terrific boom for the business. It’s going to start out, obviously, with a lot of the CMD, which as we said, is great volume and good revenue, but not a whole lot of margin. And then obviously, we’ll expect to see it continue to grow and turn into better margins as you get into production programs and foreign military sales and all the things that we would expect will come along with a successful FLRAA program.
David Strauss: Okay. And last one on the aero supply chain. Could you just update us there? And your deliveries, I think, came in a fair amount later for the full year than we were originally anticipating at the beginning of the year. So how many additional deliveries could you have done this year if you didn’t have supply chain bottlenecks. Thanks.
Scott Donnelly: Well, I don’t know if we’ll go into express numbers, David. But look, we’ve been kind of forecasting here since the mid part of the year that we expected we would end up a few hundred million dollars light versus our initial guide based on the fact that we continue to see supply chain challenges and some labor issues. I think labor has certainly improved through the balance of the year, although a lot of that is new folks and training and it has an efficiency impact, but at least we’re making some progress on that front. I think we’ve had a number of suppliers that were challenged or getting better, but you always have a couple out there that are still struggling. So we kind of anticipated that in the back half of the year.
That’s why we kind of try to provide some color that we expected this to be a few hundred million off of our guide. But I think that we’ve taken that into consideration. So as we think about next year’s guide for ’23, there are still going to be supply chain challenges all along the way. But we think we’ve taken that into proper consideration in terms of the ’23 guide.
David Strauss: Thanks very much.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard from Vertical Research. Please go ahead.
Robert Stallard: I’ll start with Frank. I was wondering if you could give us some sort of walk on the manufacturing cash flow and why you expect it to modestly decline in 2023?
Frank Connor: Yes. It’s a reflection of an expectation that we’ll continue to see good performance from a working capital standpoint. But we do have the continuation of higher cash taxes associated with the R&D tax credit change. And also, we’re just expecting a slightly lower V in deposit activity from commercial volume. So we’re kind of framing it in terms of kind of 1:1 book-to-bill type expectation as it relates to deposit activity, and that kind of has a little bit of a headwind on cash relative to where we have been.
Robert Stallard: Okay. And then maybe one for Scott. Also, been a lot of commentary around about in the business jet industry about some of the lead indicators starting to slow. Have you seen any impact of, say, activity leveling off of used inventory increasing having any impact on order activity for you?
Scott Donnelly: No, we haven’t seen that, Robert. I mean, I think our order rate in the fourth quarter was consistent with the third quarter. It remains quite healthy. I think when people look at some of these leading indicators, like it’s hard to keep track of what — when you see a little bit of an increase in used available for sale, what kind of aircraft are those? What are their vintages? We think, obviously, the market has been very strong. So people are looking to put some aircraft on the market. They’re still at very low levels. So we’re not seeing the knock-on effect into market for new aircraft. So we haven’t seen a material change in the level of activity that’s going out there in terms of order activity. I mean, there’s lots of people ready reports.
It’s frankly hard to understand. Sometimes there’s so many comparisons of flying by region, by size of aircraft compared to ’19 compared to last quarter, compared to ’22 but it’s in the round. So we haven’t seen any of that have a meaningful impact on order activity.
Robert Stallard: That’s great. Thanks so much.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Peter Arment from Baird.
