Terran Orbital Corporation (NYSE:LLAP) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Greg Konrad: And then, just last one, just two-part question on cash. I might have missed it, but in terms of CapEx for 2023 and given expansion plans, I mean, does CapEx kind of peak in 2023 or 2024? And kind of tie to that — you actually had really good working capital in 2022, just given the upcoming contracts, would you expect that kind of carry into 2023, and just in terms of staying positive on working capital?

Gary Hobart: Yeah. So, two parts to that question. On CapEx, as we’ve now ceased pursuing the self-funded constellation, that will reduce to zero, that type of spend in the CapEx. Predominantly CapEx will be a combination of facility and equipment expansion, both in Irvine this year and in the new facility this year and next. I — right now we haven’t fully scoped that, but think about the two facilities as roughly a number that’s maybe $10 million all in. It could be more, depending on how exquisite we get for each facility. We spent a little bit of that already for the existing Irvine expansion. I would also say maybe that there’s a maintenance CapEx or an IT spend that’s anywhere from five, maybe as high as $10 million depending on how we think about equipment.

So, right now, now, generically speaking, I’m looking at a CapEx profile that’s anywhere from plus or minus $15 million, maybe less, maybe more depending on how accelerated we are on bringing on this additional facility in Irvine, as well as how we think about the equipment that we’re adding and testing capabilities. Regarding working capital, we do have fairly significant swings of working capital. You saw that a little bit throughout last year. We had positive working capital swings and pretty chunky working capital swings. A part of that is, is quite frankly, the teeing of growing. When we had revenue growth in the fourth quarter almost 200%, the working capital swings can be quite dramatic. And so, part of how we think about our cash flows is factoring in working capital.

And it’s one of the reasons why we’re looking at our liquidity constantly and thinking about how to manage that both our growth and also our liquidity profile.

Greg Konrad: Thank you.

Operator: Next we have a question from Robert Spingarn from Melius. Please go ahead.

Robert Spingarn: Hey, good morning everyone. Marc, just all the color you’ve given us net-net, how would you say the market has changed from a demand perspective as the economy changes and maybe marginalized players are moving away? So, how is the demand changed? And then how is the supply chain? Are you seeing any of your competition exit the market?

Marc Bell: Sure. So, let’s bring this down a couple pieces. So, on the market side, NDA is the only thing Democrats or Republicans always agree on. It’s recession proof. It’s interest rate proof. It will be for 61 years. It’s always been near unanimous. We don’t see that — we don’t see us cutting our defense budget anytime soon. With everything going on in Ukraine and China, we just don’t see that as a reality. We always see our biggest threat to our business is world peace. We don’t see that happening anytime soon as well. What we do see in the commercial side is people are seeing that commercially owned satellite constellations are now economically viable. When they were building billion dollar satellites in geosynchronous orbit, they weren’t economically viable.

When you’re building million dollar satellites and low earth orbit, they become — business applications become economically viable, whether it’s 5G, internet of things, all sorts of other things. There are things we can do for — there are things we can do to light it to make — the world has changed that has made it more productive for companies to do business. On the supply chain side, by continuing to build things in house, we are seeing less and less supply chain issues. We are seeing a lot of our competitors and our competitors per se, a lot of people — a lot of the new space spacs, we see them continuing to get into trouble. You saw what happened to Virgin Orbit. All these guys are building it and hope they will come. In our case, we don’t build something unless they come to us first.

So, when — we have a very different business model, but we’re just lumped into a bad neighborhood, and unfortunately our stock doesn’t represent that.

Robert Spingarn: Okay. And then, Gary, you talked about a lot of positives and negatives, just — with regard to the numbers. So, when you put all that together, how should we expect free cash burn to continue as we go through the year? I know you’re not guiding, but what should the trend be between the facility expansions against the prototyping, winding down, and so on?

Gary Hobart: Yeah. Rob, thanks for the question. The — it’s a little bit difficult to say, in addition to not providing guidance, but I can point to the history — the near term history that we could see swings particularly in working capital that impact our liquidity or at least our free cash flow to the tune as much as $25 million to $30 million in any one quarter. Could be a little bit higher than that, could be a little bit lower, particularly if Rivada onboards on the timeframe, but take thinking about. So, it is a fairly big swing that we are managing. And that one — working capital is probably the biggest one, as well as overall the timing of new awards, and the execution of those awards that, that has a very dramatic impact.

Generally positive with new awards is we bring them on. And so it makes it difficult to guide, but it also is kind of a function of where we’re at in terms of growth and use of liquidity. And so, let me pause there, because it’s really difficult to give much more guidance in that.

Robert Spingarn: Okay. And just a housekeeping question. Where are you on the B Riley facility?

Marc Bell: So, the B. Riley facility is still open and available to us. We have available to us. The lesser of about $98 million of proceeds or the sale of about 27 million shares. So, we’ve barely tapped it last year.

Robert Spingarn: Okay. Thanks. Okay. Thank you both.

Operator: Next we have a question from Josh Sullivan from Benchmark. Please go ahead.

Josh Sullivan: Hey, good morning.

Marc Bell: Good morning.