Teradyne, Inc. (NASDAQ:TER) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Greg Smith: Okay. I hope I caught all of your questions. If I didn’t, then please correct me. We don’t comment about specific customers. I will share that we don’t expect that our historically largest customer will be a 10% customer this year. I’ll also share that we think that there is more of – that we’ve gotten sort of the bottom dialed into our plan, that there’s definitely more upside to downside in terms of the plan associated with mobile in general.

Samik Chatterjee: Got it. Got it. No, and you got that question. So for my follow-up, if I can ask on robotics. Can you give us some sense of how you’re thinking about first half versus second half there? And what’s the right now any updated thinking on profitability for the year for the business? How do you track in 1Q and sort of how you’re thinking about the full year for robotics? Thank you.

Greg Smith: So I’ll start off with sort of a qualitative answer in terms of the drivers, but then I’ll pass it off to Sanjay to give you more of the precise split first half, second half and the profitability. So what’s going on right now is we have a plan for the year that’s going to be essentially sequentially growing quarter-by-quarter. And the reason that the plan is laid out that way is because there are new growth drivers that are coming online throughout the year. There are drivers that are in place from last year in Q1, that’s specifically the UR 20 and UR 30, the heavy payload cobots. In Q1, we had the announcement of the MiR1200 pallet jack. That’s going to start really impacting revenue in the back half, primarily in the fourth quarter, but we’re already taking orders.

We’re building backlog for that product. We also announced the collaboration with NVIDIA. That’s going to really drive business through our OEM solution channel. So we’re going to be providing the platform tools to that channel, so that they can create stuff that goes to market. So that’s stuff that will also be back half loaded. The other thing that’s driving through the year is we are continuing to build our OEM channel and our large accounts channel. So those are things that we started. We started OEMs back in 2022, we started large accounts in 2023, and they have a significant amount of gestation time before they deliver revenue. We’re right at the point where OEMs are starting to really click. We talked about the 58% year-on-year increase in that space.

I’m expecting to see growth above the aggregate growth for large accounts in 2024. So that’s going to be a growth driver through the end of the year. So with that, I’ll pass it off to Sanjay to give you sort of the precise breakdowns.

Sanjay Mehta: Sure Thanks, Greg. So roughly the first half of the year – well, first, as Greg noted, we expect to grow sequentially in Q2, and we expect to grow throughout the year for the reasons Greg just noted. But in the first half, we have 42%-ish plus or minus, and then 58% in the back half of the year. We do expect to be profitable this year. I would say, over the year, and I would say that, that would be single-digit profitability. I will comment, I think you asked about Q1. We were not profitable just given the seasonality of the quarter. But should give you the context, I think that you asked.

Samik Chatterjee: Yes. Thank you. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator: Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Krish Sankar: Yes, hi. Thanks for taking my question. I had a couple of them. First one, on the memory side, how much of your memory revenues were from HBM in the March quarter. And I think Sanjay; you mentioned HBM revenues could grow 5x this year. I’m kind of curious, are you over-indexed to one customer, because my understanding is of the three HBM customers, one of them in sources, and within other two, can you just talk a little bit about your share position there? Then I have a follow-up.

Sanjay Mehta: I’ll take the first one on the memory in the quarter. Yes. So I want to say roughly about 45% of the memory revenue that we had was tied in the first quarter to HBM.

Greg Smith: Yes. So I’ll take the – so Krish, one quick comment. The 5x comment about HBM was referring to the market size for HBM memory. So last year was about $100 million of TAM for HBM. This year, we think it’s about $500 million worth of TAM for HBM. Our revenue is not going to go up by a factor of five. It’s going to go up. It’s going to go up significantly. But we’re not going to be able to hold sort of the 50%-ish share of HBM that we had last year. Are we over indexed to one customer? Well, the entire world is significantly over-indexed to one supplier in HBM. And that certainly has been driving our results to a great degree, both last year and will continue to drive our results this year. The other suppliers that are coming online.

One of them is primarily internally based for test. We don’t have any of that baked into our plan. Although we think that they would be better off using our equipment, we haven’t convinced them of that yet. And the other supplier in this space is a great customer of ours, although our share there is lower than our share in the leader in this space right now. So that’s another reason that we expect to dilute our share a little bit this year. The other point that I’ll make is, I was saying that we like our chances in terms of getting into new insertions for HBM memory this year. I think that, that’s an important point. And we are hopeful that, that’s going to be delivering significantly higher revenue for us through the midterm.

Krish Sankar: Very helpful, very helpful. And then just a quick follow-up. You spoke about your revenue trajectory. So the year you said September should be similar to June and then growth in 4Q. I was just curious because that seems to be against normal seasonality. So what’s the deviation this year?

Sanjay Mehta: Yes. Interesting question. I’d say that I remember several years back when we talked about we were going into a downturn and that downturn was four quarters to six quarters, and the downturn has gone a lot longer in the way of mobility. And as Greg noted, we believe that – our forecast considers mobility at a point where we feel comfortable that it’s going to be achieved. And so I think as things pick back up, the historical seasonality, I put it in the context of some segments are going to be recovering and we have some new segments that are – or some segments that are growing fairly well. So I think the seasonality comment with regards to the test perspective, or test portfolio of businesses we have. It’s a little bit off this year.