Telesat Corporation (NASDAQ:TSAT) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Daniel Goldberg: Yes. Look, its pretty fluid. I mean, the big enterprise customers are sophisticated about, you know, what’s happening out there in the market. They have quite a bit of flexibility to add networks, drop networks. They’ll make some, I’d say maybe kind of medium-term commitments, maybe two or three years or something like that. And I don’t have full visibility of exactly, you know, what they’ve committed to Starlink. I know that Starlink has had a practice of oftentimes not signing long-term agreements with customers. It’s almost kind of month-to-month in some ways whether they did something differently with the cruise customers. I don’t know. But suffice to say that the cruise lines and the service providers that serve them are well aware of what we’re working on with Lightspeed.

They are like what we can offer and the flexibility that we offer and our ability to concentrate capacity at ports and on key shipping lines. They like to have a diversity of suppliers, as I mentioned. So, yes, I mean, we’re – I hate losing any renewal, but, yes, we’re sure not kind of blocked out of the market on a go-forward basis.

Unidentified Analyst: And then my last question, on the funding, you mentioned the Canadian government, is the provincial government, the Quebec provincial government, still involved in the funding process?

Daniel Goldberg: Yes. Our expectation is that Quebec will be a meaningful funding participant in our program. Quebec gets great things from this Lightspeed initiative, I’d say now more than ever that we’re working with MDA. When I think about the amount of investment that was going to be made in Quebec under the original plan, when Quebec had agreed to certain funding commitments, now that MDA is our prime contractor. Yes, the amount of investment in Quebec is gone up, I’d say dramatically. So, yes, our expectation is Quebec will be part – one of our funding sources.

Unidentified Analyst: Okay. Thanks.

Daniel Goldberg: Okay. Thanks, Joe.

Operator: Thank you. And the next question is from Mr. Mike Pace from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Mike Pace: Hi, good morning, guys, and thank you for the added color on the guidance between the two segments. I guess just to dig down a little bit, Dan, you said that you don’t expect the same type of declines in 2025, and I guess I understand that on a total basis because the broadcast renewals. But from an enterprise, would you continue to expect enterprise to decline at that same kind of rate? And maybe another way to get at it is, and I think we’ve discussed this in the past, how much of your enterprise business do you think is at risk for real alternatives, including your own, eventually?

Daniel Goldberg: That’s a great question. I’m smiling because we had anticipated this question, still not sure we have a great answer for it. So what would I – what would I say? Look, we’ve got a long-term plan. We gave our guidance, obviously, this morning for 2024, we have a decent amount of visibility. It’s one of the nice things about our sector, a decent amount of visibility in terms of, you know, what our longer-term performance will probably be. You don’t always get it exactly right, but we’ve got a decent track record, I think. So, we’ve done a pretty, I’d say for most companies, a super rigorous analysis. We’ve done a real kind of round-up analysis looking out beyond 2024. And having done that, it’s why we were able to say this morning that it isn’t our expectation, which is to say it is not our expectation that we’re going to have the magnitude of top-line decline in future years that we’ve had this year.

We need to do a little bit more work, I think, to give a, you know, I don’t know, substantive lack of a better word, answer to your question about where, you know, are you more vulnerable to, for instance, Starlink or even cannibalizing our own revenue? We used to give some guidance about the percentage of our enterprise revenue, or maybe even our total revenue that we anticipated would migrate over to Lightspeed over time. And like many things, I’ve forgotten what we said. But, John, do you remember what we had said? I want to say we had estimated it was around 55% – I’m sorry, 50% of our enterprise revenues that we thought would be migratable to Lightspeed over time.

Andrew Browne: I think that’s what we said, believe it was in that zone. There are some things that just aren’t suitable for, that are better served.

Daniel Goldberg: So you know, that was kind of the estimate that we gave before. And so I would say now, again, we said that a little while ago, and already we’ve seen some move off, not for Lightspeed, but Starlink, but in many ways, it’d probably be a similar book of business that, you know, could move to Lightspeed that would be more vulnerable to, you know, LEO competition with large, I, again, think that Lightspeed is a better value prop for enterprise users than the other LEO constellations. But I don’t know, it’s a long-winded winded answer, Mike. And as I said, we need to do a little bit more work on it, but kind of order magnitude that’s probably the, you know, book a business that’s at risk. And I’m sure looking at my colleagues who do the work of updating the long-term plan, I’m sure that’s kind of how we thought about it.

And to be clear, we assume in our forward projections that there is that there are additional requirements that move to LEO, including – before Lightspeed’s available, which is to say we lose it. So, yes, I think we’ve captured that.

Mike Pace: Okay. A few more and they can be quicker on my end. I just want to make sure I understand. So if I take your consolidated EBITDA guidance for ’24, and I add back the Lightspeed OpEx, is that basically the GL business or the restricted group in terms of EBITDA?

Daniel Goldberg: Yes, it is correct. Absolutely. Yes, Mike.

Mike Pace: Okay. And then can you share what the Lightspeed OpEx was in 2023, please?

Daniel Goldberg: In 2023, it was approximately just under CAD50 million CAD48 million to be precise.