Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) (NASDAQ:ERIC) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Carl Mellander: Yes, I can take. So when it comes to India, yes, so we really saw the peak now in the third quarter, and the volumes came down in the fourth quarter. That is true. Nothing specific to talk about delays over quarters, if that’s your question. It’s – more importantly, I would say, we’ve seen an incredible speed in India during 2023. 2024, we expect to be still a higher market, larger market than it was prior to 2023, but of course, compared to ’23 coming down quite a lot. So that’s what we have to understand. When it comes to the AT&T contract and where you continue and that one as well. But I just want to say, I mean, obviously we don’t talk about margins in specific contracts. We are extremely pleased with the confidence that AT&T has showed us.

It will increase our market share in the North American market. And of course, North America is such a key market for us given our market share, which is already strong and now increasing with this contract as well. We will start to see meaningful revenue in the second half of that contract. And I think that…

Börje Ekholm: That’s – you summarized it well. Thanks, Aleksander…

Unidentified Analyst: Thanks very much.

Peter Nyquist: Thank you. So let’s move further in the Q&A question. We will move to the next question, which comes from Erik Lindholm-Röjestål at the bank SEB. Good morning, Erik.

Erik Lindholm-Röjestål: Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. So Delaro [ph] is expecting a 17% recovery here in North America in 2024, but you have quite cautious short-term commentary here. Can you talk a bit how – a bit about how you expect this recovery to look if you think a recovery will materialize? And is it sort of more tilted towards H2? And then perhaps the second question, can you talk a bit about the sort of normalization here in free cash flow into 2024? Do you expect the working capital buildup that you saw in 2023 to fully normalized in ’24? Thank you.

Börje Ekholm: Should I start with the market maybe?

Carl Mellander: Okay.

Börje Ekholm: And I think the – what we are trying to do, and it’s a great question we ask ourselves the same one, right? What we have said is we are rather taking a planning perspective that the current market conditions will prevail, i.e. we see a challenging market for 2024. That allows us to plan accordingly, focus on taking costs out where appropriate, making sure we’re disciplined in our investments and really pare back some of the investment areas we’ve had. So we’re trying to use this environment to be really prepared on the cost side to be as lean as possible. At the same time, we want to make sure that we invest in technology leadership, because I think from my perspective, it’s all about being well positioned when the market recovers.

And that is – and we’ve said that so many times, it really depends on how the customer looks at their own cadence of investments. Some of them are going to show. And we see that, for example, in early 5G markets where 5G investments start to come back. And that’s why you’ve seen growth there for a couple of quarters now. But when that will happen on a more global basis, it’s ultimately in the hands of the customers. But when it happens, we want to be really well positioned to take advantage of that turnaround and that recovery.

Carl Mellander: Thanks, Börje. If I take your cash flow question then, Erik. So we are going for the 9% to 12% free cash flow metric that we have or target. Just as with the EBITA target, we are not saying when we’re not committing to a certain time period. But we have extreme cash flow focus in the company. And if you look at the fundamentals, we built up inventory due to the component shortage situation earlier. Of course, that is trading out more and more as we deliver to customers. And secondly, we had a market mix shift from the U.S. and other markets, front-end markets with shorter cycles to the longer cycles in India. Assuming that, that mix swings back to some extent, and we already saw it in the fourth quarter with India coming down. Then we will release working capital, and that’s, of course, benefiting our free cash flow. So we are going for this with determination as usual and aiming for the long term 9% to 12%.

Börje Ekholm: I think only adding the other area that actually affects working capital is, call it, geopolitical resiliency. So we have tried to diversify our supply chain in total, and that’s been rather costly exercise, but it’s allowed us to actually ship also when we had the supply disturbances. I would say, for other reasons than geopolitics, but it’s kind of the whole notion that we need to have a geopolitical resiliency has actually impacted working capital. Those increases will not happen. We’ve kind of built it in now. So we’re in a much more stable position. But that, of course, have been a bit of a burden on cash flow.

Peter Nyquist: Thanks, Börje. And thanks, Erik, for those two questions. We will then move to the next question, and then we have the question from Francois Bouvignies from UBS. Good morning, Francois.