TC Energy Corporation (NYSE:TRP) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Joel Hunter: Yes, Robert, it’s Joel here. Simply answer your question, yes, it does. You have to recall that when you look at our EBITDA growth, 6% year-over-year, ’22 relative to ’21. Going forward here, ’23, we expect 5% to 7% and then 6% going forward here. So we have to factor that into the calculus here. We start to see our capital spend drop down over time here as we complete the $34 billion capital program. And so certainly, what we see here on a run rate, as I mentioned earlier, that we expect to hit that 5 times in the next 12 months. And then going forward to get to that 4.75. So when we look at our model, that is our run rate is to get to 4.75, but near terms get to 5 times and we’re going to stay there. Again, we’re not going to go higher, as we’ve talked about before. 4.75 is the appropriate level here. So again, when you look at our model, it’s certainly we’re able to achieve that with the capital rotation.

Francois Poirier: And Robert, it’s Francois just to add a comment to that. In terms of our business development and growth strategies, we are going to continue to be very disciplined around adding capital spend in those years in the interim. Capital discipline is very important to us. And so really, when you’re looking at many of the types of projects that we pursue, they get sanctioned and then have one or two years of regulatory approvals to go through. So really unlikely to see us sanctioning significant amounts of incremental capital in that period of time. And where we do, we will be looking to capital rotation to maintain our balance sheet metrics.

Robert Kwan: So the ’23 program holds you at 5 and gets you to 4.75 by 2026 and anything 2024 and beyond is basically color-coded against additional CapEx?

Joel Hunter: Yes. I would say though that the 4.75, our expectation is we accelerate that beyond 2026. We showed you at Investor Day getting there by 26 without any capital rotation. But we expect to accelerate that into ’24 would be our expectation right now in the next 12 months. It’s to get to the 5 times. But as we look at exiting ’24, possibly getting to 4.75.

Operator: Our next question comes from Praneeth Satish of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Praneeth Satish: On Coastal GasLink Phase II, I know the project is still under evaluation, but I’m wondering how you think about the economics for Phase 2 in the context of Phase 1 cost overruns? Can you look to earn a higher return on Phase 2 to partially offset the lower return on Phase 1, so that I guess if we look at Phase 1 and Phase 2, collectively, the blended return of both projects could be back into your targeted 7% to 9% range? Just curious for your thoughts on that.

Bevin Wirzba: So Praneeth, Coastal GasLink is basically Canada’s LNG corridor. And we’re working with our customer, LNG Canada is developing not only their first trains, but they’ve asked us to begin the evaluation of Phase 2. So as you say, we’re very excited to be contemplating the expansion of our system that would not be a linear development. It’s the addition of 6 compressor station sites, which we’ve demonstrated at Wilde Lake that we’ve just brought to mechanically complete, that we can deliver those on schedule and on time. Project economics, those are obviously confidential, but we’re encouraged by the possibility of advancing to an FID stage that, as you say, would bring the total investment in that LNG court or to returns that or more commensurate with what our expectations would be.