TC Energy Corporation (NYSE:TRP) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Ben Pham: Okay. And then my follow-up question on – I know you mentioned there’s a question around returns and maximizing your returns in the NGTL system. Is there any thoughts or motivation on pushing of the team equity of the pipeline where you can capture more cash and deleverage the same time?

Francois Poirier: Ben, we’re in the front end of a negotiation process with our customers. As Greg mentioned, we’ll be providing some feedback and color as next year proceeds. It’s too early at this point to provide any indication as to where those discussions are heading. But whenever we can, we will be sure to provide some color to our shareholders and to other stakeholders.

Operator: Our next question comes from Brian Reynolds of UBS. Please go ahead.

Brian Reynolds: Hi. Good morning, everyone. Maybe to follow up on Coastal GasLink. Good news on the mechanical completion. So maybe as we look ahead towards earnings expectations next year, just kind of curious how we should think about the EPS or EBITDA contribution as it relates to this asset, just given that LNG Canada won’t be online. Does LNG Canada reimbursed TC for maintenance costs? Or is there kind of a regulated return framework embedded in there? Just wondering how we should think about Coastal GasLink earnings before LNG Canada comes online, hopefully in ’25.

Francois Poirier: Thanks, Brian. I’ll kick it off. This is Bevin. So there’s – as you would appreciate, even in the Gulf Coast, LNG projects take a while to commission and bring into service. So we’ve done our part by bringing the project in on time and by the end of the year. And we’ll have to wait and see how LNGC progresses. They’re making strong progress, but I’d anticipate that a good part of next year is in commissioning process.

Joel Hunter: Brian, I would just add, it’s Joel here. When we think about the returns from CGL, first of all, we own 35% today, that could go down to 25% if First Nations pick up their 10% option. So we don’t have obviously significant ownership in the project. And when we look at the amount that we’ve had to impair as it relates to this project, roughly $3 billion last year and just over $2 billion this year. You can read into that, that there’s not going to be a significant return for us here on this project going forward. The key was really to get the project completed on schedule with the revised budget. That was critical to us and safely, obviously. But as we look at the amount of incremental equity income that we would generate from this investment, it’s not going to be that significant.

Brian Reynolds: Great. Appreciate all the color. Maybe to pivot to the South Bow COO, two-part question. If you could just discuss how one conversations are going with the agencies around being investment grade. In the slide deck, you kind of alluded to managing some floating interest rate exposure. I’m just kind of curious if 5x is still what the agencies are looking for? And then second part of the question for the SpinCo. It looks like you have 2% to 3% of DPS growth reaffirmed from the spin, but only roughly $200 million in secured capital backlog at this time. So clearly, the companies are going to separate and be able to pursue different opportunities. So just kind of curious if you can sensitize what that secured capital backlog at the liquids company could look like post spin? Thanks.

Joel Hunter: Brian, it’s Joel here. I’ll take the first part of that question before handing it over to Bevin. Again, we are working closely with Bevan’s team to support their financing. I would say to you that nothing has changed since the last update here at the end of July when we went to the agencies with our deemed capital structure and got an indicative ratings at that point, which would be investment grade based on roughly five turns of leverage. So nothing has changed up until now. We would expect to go back to the agencies here sometime kind of late winter, early spring as we finalize things here as it relates to the capital structure for South Bow and to get firmed up ratings as South Bow would then look to after the spin has been approved to start establishing the capital structure at that point in time. But I’ll remind you what is fundamental to this is that South Bow will have an investment-grade rating, no matter what.

Bevin Wirzba: And Brian, I’ll answer your second part. This is Bevin. So just a reminder, our value proposition is a total shareholder return that we’re seeking double digits for our shareholders. That’s made up of a high-yield component through a very sustainable dividend, underpinned by best-in-class contracts and the connectivity of our quarter from the best supply basin to the strongest demand. That dividend, coupled with the 2% to 3% growth that you’ve articulated, that comes from two points. First, it comes from operational and commercial excellence on our current systems. You’ve heard us move the bar on our system operating factor over the last three years by nearly 10%. There’s a tremendous amount of additional opportunity we see in growing our EBITDA through our existing systems without capital.

And a proof point to that is that we’ve delivered all our contracts even subject to the derate this past year. The second lever that we have on growth are very low capital investment opportunities that surround our corridor. A great example of that is the Port Neches Link asset that we put into service this year on time and on budget. That has attracted a tremendous amount of flow, enhancing the value again of our Marketlink system. So we believe we have line of sight to a number of those types of capital opportunities that more than underpin our 2% to 3% growth, but with very low execution risk. The third part of our value proposition, though, is that in our outflows of capital, we’re going to reserve the ability, which ties to your first question around our balance sheet strength, the ability to continue to delever.

It is critical that we maintain a very strong balance sheet at South Bow. So hopefully that addresses your question.

Brian Reynolds: Yes. It sounds like a lot of low multiple build type projects looking forward. So looking forward to hear some more at the Analyst Day here in a few weeks. Have a great rest of you morning.

Bevin Wirzba: Thanks, Brian.

Francois Poirier: So I think we have time for just one more question, please.

Operator: Our next question comes from John Mackay from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

John Mackay: Good morning. Thanks for the time. I wanted to maybe just start on the success in bringing Unit 6, Bruce, online kind of faster than scheduled. Any read-through for the rest of the MCR program and maybe anything that could mean any learnings for potentially moving forward for Bruce 6?