We came across a bullish thesis on Taseko Mines Limited (TGB) on Substack by Unemployed Value Degen. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on TGB. Taseko Mines Limited (TGB)’s share was trading at $2 as of Dec 4th. TGB’s trailing and forward P/E were 18 and 11.52 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
A large open-pit copper mine with heavy machinery extracting minerals from the earth.
Taseko Mines (TGB) stands out as an attractive investment in the copper sector, particularly following a pullback in its share price from $2.51 to $2.05. Despite this decline, the long-term thesis for copper remains robust, driven by increasing demand and limited new supply. TGB has quietly delivered solid operational performance, generating $159 million in operational cash flow in the first nine months of 2024, representing significant value relative to its $624 million market capitalization. This cash flow is being reinvested into its Florence Copper Project, a transformative initiative poised to elevate the company’s earnings profile.
The Florence Copper Project, set to begin production in late 2025, is projected to generate $300 million in annual EBITDA at $4 copper prices once fully operational. Combined with the $200–$240 million in annual EBITDA from TGB’s existing Gibraltar mine, the company could achieve over $500 million in annual EBITDA by 2026. This would imply a market capitalization of $1.35 billion if valued at multiples similar to peers like Hudbay Minerals (HBM), translating to a potential 47% annualized return over the next two years. The upside scenario becomes even more compelling if copper prices exceed $4 per pound, making TGB a clear beneficiary of a bullish copper environment.
The primary risk to this thesis lies in the successful execution of the Florence Copper Project. While in-situ copper mining is an established technology, its application is limited to specific geological conditions, and execution risks remain. Nevertheless, TGB’s management has a clear plan, and the project is progressing steadily toward its late 2025 production target. Additionally, the company owns several undeveloped deposits, which the market currently undervalues but could provide optionality in the event of a copper price rally.
At current levels, TGB offers a compelling entry point. The stock is attractively priced for its growth potential, particularly given its position as a low-cost producer with a clear path to significant EBITDA expansion. With the added advantage of diversification through Gibraltar’s steady cash flow, TGB represents a balanced play on copper’s long-term strength. For investors seeking exposure to copper’s growth story, TGB combines near-term resilience with substantial upside potential, especially as the Florence project comes online. The recent weakness in the stock presents a timely opportunity to capitalize on a long-term, ironclad copper investment thesis.
Taseko Mines Limited (TGB) is not on our list of the 31 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 12 hedge fund portfolios held TGB at the end of the third quarter which was 13 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of TGB as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than TGB but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.