Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. (NASDAQ:TNDM) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Leigh Vosseller: I’m sure. Happy to talk about it. It starts with — and we do expect a step-up in fourth quarter sales from the third quarter. And as we sell more pumps, it does drop more profit to the bottom line. I’ll also add that we’ve demonstrated a pretty, I would say, incredible progress across our operating expenses this year. This will be the second quarter in a row we’ve seen a reduction of operating expenses as we continue to manage costs, implement efficiencies, which allows us to slow down on some of the hiring that we’ve been doing, particularly in some of our customer support functions where the benefits of our infrastructure and Tandem stores are really starting to help with that efficiency opportunity and our expenses in the third quarter were actually flat to the prior year.

So as we look at continued cost containment, improvement on the top line, all of that contributes to our ability to meet our adjusted EBITDA guidance of at least breakeven for this year. And you’ve seen now for Q2 and Q3, we’ve been positive in both quarters.

Unidentified Analyst: Great. That’s helpful. And then on the U.S. new pumpers, correct me if I heard you wrong, but I heard about a little — maybe a little bit less than half renewal. If I plug that in, I get U.S. new pumpers, naive pumpers down year-over-year in like the high 40s. A, is that correct math? And then b, is that how we should be thinking about the fourth quarter in terms of renewals versus new pumpers?

Leigh Vosseller: Yes. So you’re correct in that renewals were just under half of our shipments this quarter, which does imply that new pumpers declined, and that goes back to an earlier point in the conversation about the impact that we’re seeing for people waiting for Mobi, even to some extent, people waiting for G7 as we get to our full availability here in the fourth quarter. That tends to impact the new pumpers more so than the renewal pumpers. As we go into the fourth quarter, part of the reasons we have confidence and continue to drive that step up from Q3 to Q4 is that our renewal opportunities will grow. So the number of new warranties expiring in the fourth quarter actually is stepping up from Q3, about 20%. And so it could be that renewals will continue to move closer to that 50-50 mark in terms of — versus new pumpers, but stay tuned on that as we see the behavior of people that are considering tandem for the first time as they’re meeting their end of year deductible.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Matt Taylor of Jefferies.

Matthew Taylor: I guess I wanted to ask you, a little bit for high-level help on the phasing of contributions next year from Mobi and the sensors. I guess just given this pause that we’ve seen — do you expect a snapback as you get full release? Is it going to be different than normal seasonality? Or should we think about more normal seasonality on the back of all these new products through the year next year?

Leigh Vosseller: Yes. Thanks for the question, Matt. So when you think about when you have a new product launch, you have a number of things happen. And so even though we’re seeing some pent-up demand right now, it tends to still be gated by people’s insurance. And when they will meet their deductible, what it looks like at the beginning of the year. And so I would say 2 factors would cause me to think at this point that we might have a heavier back half loaded year, which would be people working with their insurance plans, but also just as momentum grows on these products as there’s more awareness as people begin to experience it, physicians see the experiences with it. It will start encouraging more people to move forward with purchases.

And so I would still think about it as a scale across the year like we would typically see with the back end being more — potentially with the back end being more heavily loaded than in years past because of the timing of product launches.

Matthew Taylor: All right. And maybe just 1 follow-up. You have the sensor integration of MB both big catalysts. Can you help us understand the relative impact of each as Mobi a lot bigger than the sensors or vice versa? Or are they both equal contributors. Help us understand which is going to be the bigger driver and approximately how much if you could?

John Sheridan: Yes, I would say that the feedback we’ve received so far on Mobi is but overwhelmingly positive. People have been really surprised by how small it is, the flexibility in terms of locating on their body. And I mean it’s really exceeded our — we knew it was going to be positive, but it’s really exceeded our expectations. And so I would expect that Mobi is going to be a positive driver of revenue as soon as it’s available. And that I would expect to see turnaround driven by it. That being said, there’s also a lot of interest that we’re hearing from the field and the G7 integration. And so I think that people are pausing, waiting for now. So I think it’s definitely going to have an effect as well, probably not as much as Mobi will.

I think that Abbott is — there’s a lot of people out there today that usually Abbott sensor, hundreds of thousands that don’t use pump technology. So it might be slower to get those people into Tandem product over time, but it’s a meaningful longer-term opportunity for us. So I think that Mobi is going to be the driver. We’re going to definitely see very favorable benefits from the G7 implementation. And then Abbott longer term is going to really have a favorable effect on growth.

Operator: Our next question comes from the line of Connor Chamberlain of Craig Hallum.

Unidentified Analyst: This is Conor on for Alex. Can you compare the current market pause to similar dynamics that you’ve seen in the past with Control-IQ, Basal-IQ or even Medtronic 670G launch.

Leigh Vosseller: Sure. You just highlighted, I think, all of them that we’ve been through across the years. And the level of impact from any new product launch does vary kind of depending on the circumstances around it. The 670G, I would say, was the most impactful at that time for a variety of reasons. The pause we saw in advance of Control-IQ was much lighter considering that it was purely a software update. And so you would think that people would be okay with moving forward and buying the pump because the software update is pretty simple, but so many times, you may see people who decide that it’s just easier to wait when they buy the next pump. So for a sensor integration, we do see some level of pausing. And so we’re excited to bring it on to market with that new software on it for the people who are waiting for it.

But I would say Mobi is on the higher end of the pause with the change in form factor. And the excitement that’s building as more and more people are hearing about it, the momentum is growing on that. And so I would say it’s on the — if you want to call it the more extreme or the higher end of what a pause might look like.

Unidentified Analyst: Great. Got it. And then do you have any visibility on how long the disruption is for the OUS distribution partners is expected to last? And then when can we expect a normalization there?