Talen Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:TLN) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Talen Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:TLN) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript February 27, 2025

Talen Energy Corporation beats earnings expectations. Reported EPS is $2.07, expectations were $-0.07.

Operator: Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Talen Energy Corporation Full Year 2024 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker today, Ellen Liu, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Ellen Liu: Thank you, Kevin. Welcome to Talen Energy’s year-end 2024 conference call. Speaking today are Chief Executive Officer, Mac McFarland; and Chief Financial Officer, Terry Nutt. They are joined by other Talen senior executives to address questions during the second part of today’s call as necessary. We issued our earnings release this afternoon, along with the presentation, all of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Talen’s website, www.talenenergy.com. Today, we are making some forward-looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions. Actual results could differ due to risk factors and other considerations described in our financial disclosures and other SEC filings. Today’s discussion also includes references to certain non-GAAP financial measures.

We have provided information reconciling our non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our earnings release, and the appendix of our presentation. With that, I will now turn the call over to Mac.

Mac McFarland: Great. Thank you, Ellen. Before we get into our results, I’d like to start with some brief remarks. Talen has been the beneficiary of strong tailwinds since we signed the AWS contract last March, and joined NASDAQ last July. Our investors have seen strong results, whether they have been with us since the restructuring or invested in the stock more recently. Then and today, we have real conviction about Talen, our value and path forward. Recent news has clearly caused some to question the IPP investments faced in the unprecedented demand growth expected from data centers. Let me be clear, our value proposition remains unchanged in our view, and the Talen story continues to excite us. Market fundamentals remain incredibly strong for IPPs in general and in Talen’s footprint specifically, and we see real opportunity in the events of the last several weeks.

We have a clear vision about our path forward. Talen has a $1 billion-plus of dry powder in our share repurchase program, and balance sheet flexibility to execute this SRP, or act strategically if the right opportunities present themselves. Talen has an existing relationship with a hyperscaler who shows no signs of pulling back on growth and has invested material capital in sweat equity into the Susquehanna arrangement to-date, and on an ongoing basis. Talen has a PPA that we are executing right now with visibility to 300 megawatts before we need to concern ourselves with regulatory issues about our colocation arrangement, and site development continues as we work through start-up with AWS. With this visibility towards the first 300 megawatts, Talen has time to convert the contract to a different commercial arrangement, and/or resolve the regulatory questions, and we are confident and focused on executing on one of those options, if not both, over time.

Talen is long power, long PJM, and will continue to benefit from a capacity market in the midst of promising reform efforts, and a demand cycle that continues to show increasing strength. Talen has a clear line of sight to our cash flows with the nuclear PTC, the PJM capacity market price increases, the RMR that we executed recently in Baltimore, and the beginnings of revenues under the AWS contract as we electrify the site. To reiterate, we have strong conviction in our view that Talen is well-positioned for powering the future and our strategy remains unchanged. Now, I’d like to highlight our operational and strategic achievements for 2024. Starting on Slide 2 of our presentation with our strong operational and financial performance. We generated $770 million of adjusted EBITDA, and $283 million of adjusted free cash flow for the year.

Our fleet achieved record levels of safety and reliability, and I would like to thank the men and women of Talen who have made this a reality. Without their efforts, none of this is possible. Our strong performance has continued into 2025, and we are reaffirming our 2025 guidance and 2026 outlook. We’ve seen cold weather hit the Mid-Atlantic with PJM setting a new winter, instantaneous peak load record of over 145,000 megawatts on January 22nd, and it has been a strong start to the year. We continue to deliver under our contract with AWS. We are earning revenues from them already and construction continues on the campus. While AWS obviously drives the schedule, we are working with them to deliver power under our PPA in the currently approved 300-megawatt ISA, or interconnection services agreement.

We are also moving forward on the commercial and legal path to ramp up to the full 960 megawatts for the campus, among other opportunities across our fleet. As I previously mentioned, in late January, we agreed to a reliability must runner, RMR with PJM, FERC staff, the Maryland PSC and local utilities. These RMR arrangements extend the life of brand insurers and Wagner from May 25 to May 29, or until necessary transmission upgrades in the region are complete. The timing aligns us with the PJM planning year, thus the extension through May of 29. Beginning June 1st, 2025, we will receive annual payments of $145 million for brand insurers, and $35 million for Wagner, and be reimbursed for variable costs and project investments. These annual revenues included incentive fees for performance that we intend to achieve.

The settlement is subject to FERC final approval, and we are encouraged by the level of support from key stakeholders. Through these arrangements, we provide critical infrastructure and protect grid reliability in Maryland, as well as the broader PJM. Moving to our strategic achievements on Page 3. 2024 was focused on unlocking value from our existing assets and returning it to shareholders while exercising balance sheet discipline. I think everyone knows the story and we are going to continue down this path of maximizing value with a focus on shareholder returns in 2025, while seeking compelling growth opportunities. Like I said, the story remains the same. Turning to Slide 4. Here’s an update on a page we’ve provided before. The green bars in the chart are from our Investor Day last September, where we talked about tripling free cash flow per share by 2026, assuming share count was held flat.

As we said in September, this could be improved with buying back shares, and that’s what we did. The effect of the share buybacks we executed in 2024 is now reflected here in the blue bars, which uses a static share count as of 12/31 2024, for the year’s 2025 and 2026. These actions taken late last year have moved the midpoint of free cash flow per share in 2025 and 2026 by approximately 11%. I want to remind everybody that when we present our free cash flow per share metric, we do not exclude growth CapEx. So what you see here is what you get when it comes to capital allocation and cash available for shareholder returns, and we do not include our future share repurchases, if any, in the calculations. Looking for more of the same in 2025, maximizing value and returning it to shareholders.

That will always be our investment benchmark as we evaluate opportunities for future growth. Turning to Slide 5. This slide supports what I said at the beginning of this call. News happens, markets move and markets are fickle, but Talen’s underlying value proposition remains the same and still points up and to the right. We clearly see significant load growth coming over the next decade. AI is in its early innings, and Talen is executing a data center power arrangement today and is well positioned to power the future. Turning to the next slide, Slide 6. This is especially true in PJM, and the PPL zone specifically. Looking at the graph, even if only part of this demand comes to pass, it would still be a huge step-up from the last decade, and has yet to manifest itself in the forward curves as we see it.

In fact, 2026 and 2027 is backward dated right now, and that doesn’t make sense to us. Demand growth means higher run times at higher prices for our existing generation fleet, and more attractive economics for potential data center arrangements. Turning to Slide 7. We are encouraged by what we’ve seen on the regulatory side in the last couple of months, FERC, PJM, state governments and other stakeholders are aware of these growing power needs and have started taking some much-needed action. We appreciate all the groups working efficiently to keep capacity auctions moving forward as soon as possible, incentivizing new generation, and provide more clarity on serving important data center customers. We recently filed comments in support of Governor Shapiro settlement in PJM on the capacity auction.

We think this is a good interim step to reduce volatility. However, we believe the market should be allowed to work. The market needs clarity on long-term rules for capacity auctions. We need to get back to the normal course of running these auctions well in advance as intended by the RPM. Said simply, we need regulatory certainty around the capacity market because it is critical for long-term investments. We will continue being active participants in the regulatory process. We will work constructively with FERC, PJM in the states where we operate. Successful outcomes here are critical to ensuring grid reliability and bringing new generation online. The RPM has worked since inception, bringing tens of thousands of megawatts of new generation to PJM, and now is the time to redouble our efforts on this front.

Recently, FERC instructed PJM to evaluate its tariff and proposed rules for governance of co-located load connections. We will advocate for a simple and non-controversial solution. If the generator, the local utility, the RTO, and the customer agree on terms, and the customer agrees to pay for what it uses from the grid, then the load should be able to connect. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Terry.

Terry Nutt: Thank you, Mac and good afternoon everyone. Turning to Slide 9, let’s look at our full year financial and operational results. As Mac mentioned, we achieved record levels of reliability and safety this year. Our fleet generated over 36 terawatt hours of power, with an equivalent forced outage factor of only 2.2%, compared to 5.5% last year. Half of this generation came from our carbon-free Susquehanna nuclear facility. Additionally, PJM saw a notable increase in power demand in 2024. With weather normalized winter peak load in January and February, increasing 1.7%, compared to 2023, reinforcing prior demand growth forecast with actual results. Our gas-fired fleet experienced a significant increase in dispatch opportunities, which drove higher volumes and energy margin.

Safety remains our first priority across the fleet and our 2024 TRIR was 0.34. This is in line with, or better than our peers, and among the lowest incident rates in Talen’s history. Thanks to this performance, our 2024 adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow exceeded the midpoint of the guidance we adjusted upward last quarter, enabling us to continue returning capital to shareholders. I will provide some more financial details on Slide 10. Our full year 2024 results were supported by strong generation performance, hedging activities, including the impacts of the nuclear PTC, and disciplined cost management, despite the absence of earnings from the ERCOT generation portfolio that we sold in May. During the fourth quarter, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $164 million, and adjusted free cash flow of $21 million.

Adjusted EBITDA was $41 million higher than Q4 2023, and adjusted free cash flow was $43 million higher primarily due to lower financing costs. Turning now to guidance on Slide 11. We are reaffirming the previously announced 2025 guidance ranges. Our adjusted EBITDA range remains at $0.925 billion to $1.175 billion, and our adjusted free cash flow range is still a $395 million to $595 million. If I were to provide any color on the start of 2025, it would be this. Our fleet ran reliably during peak winter weather events, and we had strong commercial results. Our 2026 outlook also remains unchanged from what we disclosed at our September Investor Day. These ranges continue to demonstrate Talen’s robust earnings and cash flow growth profile, which includes tripling adjusted free cash flow per share by 2026.

Moving to Slide 12. We are committed to maintaining ample liquidity and net leverage below our target of 3.5 times. As of February 21st, our 2024 net leverage ratio was 3.3 times, and pro forma 2025 was 2.4 times, well below our target. In addition, we have approximately $1.2 billion of liquidity, with over $470 million of cash on the balance sheet. In December, we executed a series of refinancing transactions that both improved our capital structure and enabled us to complete a large share repurchase. We lowered the interest rates on our existing Term Loan B, and revolving credit facility, terminated our cash-backed Term Loan C, and expanded our letter of credit capacity by entering into a new facility. We also issued a new Term Loan B at a lower rate and used those proceeds along with cash on hand to buy back approximately 5 million shares from our largest shareholder.

Lastly, we cleaned up our debt covenants and baskets, giving ourselves increased capacity for capital allocation. Let’s turn to Slide 13. Since the start of 2024, we have repurchased approximately 13 million shares, or 22% of our shares outstanding, returning nearly $2 billion of capital to our shareholders, which as we said previously, is 75% of our market cap since emergence. We continue to see share repurchases as the first priority for excess cash and we’ll continue to use that as the benchmark to measure the return profile of any growth opportunities. We continue to target a return of 70% of adjusted free cash flow to our shareholders. We have significant buyback capacity through year-end 2026, supported by $470 million of cash on the balance sheet, and over $1.2 billion of adjusted free cash flow generation during the period.

With that, I’ll hand it back to Mac.

Mac McFarland: Thanks Terry. 2024 was an exciting time and 2025 is starting strong. But we are not finished, nor will we ever be, as we continue to focus on maximizing shareholder value and creating growth opportunities. We appreciate everyone’s interest in Talen and for joining us on the call today. I’ll now turn it back to the operator and open the line for questions.

Q&A Session

Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Michael Sullivan with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Michael Sullivan: Hey Mac, good to hear from you. I’m going to start with the same question I think everyone’s been asking you and all your peers. Just in the wake of the FERC order on colocation, just in terms of how quickly you think that they can turn this around? And what can you do in the interim?

Mac McFarland: Sure. So, taking — just kind of two different questions. Taking the first one, how quickly we could turn this around? Look, I think we’re encouraged by what’s happened with FERC on how they pushed it to PJM and put a time line out there. Christie came out with his press release or statement the day after the open meeting and basically said that he wants to move fast on this and push that to PJM. We’re encouraged by that. As I said, we think that they can act fast. I’ll reiterate what I said, which is I think it’s a simple solution that if the local utility, the transmission owner, in our case PPL, the state PUC, the RTO being PJM, and the generator all agree, and it’s paying for what service is being used, then we think that, that solution should be amenable to the market and should be available to the market and should be one of many different solutions and in all of the above approach for solving the growing AI demand.

So, we’re encouraged by what we see. How fast? It’s a regulatory process, but we’re encouraged by the time frame by which Christie — Chairman Christie has outlined and ask PJM to respond. In the interim, what can we do? I think the story, again, remains the same. I think Talen, however — possibly — I think our story is different in that what we have is a current arrangement with AWS. And I think we shouldn’t lose sight of that. I don’t think that’s complicated, nor do I think it imputes the same regulatory uncertainty that might exist elsewhere. We have a deal that we’re executing on. That deal, by the way, we’re at 363 days in hindsight from when we signed that. And since that time, we’ve been executing on it. We’re at the site right now, as I mentioned, electrifying the site.

For those that came during the Investor Day in September — October of 2023, excuse me, and visited the site when it was a shell, it looks vastly different now. It looks like someone kicked over an anthill. You’ve got trucks, cars everywhere, you’ve got equipment showing up. And we’re working through start-up and electrifying, we’re receiving revenues under that contract. So, look, we view this as a race to be able to power the future, power AI demand. We have an existing contract. I kind of view it as we’re out of the blocks and down the track. And so we’re executing and we’re looking forward and not back. And so what does that mean? We have time. We have till 2027 under the development schedule to solve this. I’m confident that we will find a solution, as I mentioned, either through a commercial arrangement, as well as preserving — as I’ve said in the past, we’re pursuing a dual track right now as well as preserving co-location because I think it needs to be part of the ultimate solution going forward.

So we’re executing under that, and we’re excited about electrifying the campus and seeing the campus move forward. They’re turning dirt. It’s an exciting time for us.

Michael Sullivan: That’s great. I appreciate all that color. And maybe just a little more color on latest thoughts for best use of cash. I think you used the term economically justified growth. What does that look like as we sit here today?

Mac McFarland: So, I’m staring at Terry right now because he’s going to reach across the table and probably, I don’t know, make sure I stay in check. Look, Michael, I think the story is the same. We always benchmark, as I said in the opening comments, against returning cash to shareholders is our capital allocation. That remains our benchmark by which we evaluate things. But when we look at the opportunity set that we have with respect to data center opportunities, long-term contracts, things of those nature, we’re throwing off a bunch of cash. We’ve got a growing cash flow profile, right. That’s putting a lot of cash on the balance sheet. We’ve got a — versus our net leverage target, as Terry articulated an unlevered balance sheet so we have balance sheet capacity.

But when we look at those, we’re going to use them strategically for growth opportunities that fit that strategy. And if we don’t find growth opportunities that fit that strategy, or even if we do, we’re going to benchmark them against buying back our stock. And that’s our general rule of thumb. Terry, you want to jump in?

Terry Nutt: Yes, Michael, just to add to Mac’s comment, he mentioned this in his remarks earlier. You guys should expect more of the same. We bought 22% of our market cap back in less than 12 months during 2024. We think that buying our shares back is the highest and best use of our cash. As we look at other opportunities, it’s got to clear that. I mean let’s take December, for example, we were able to execute a good transaction with our largest shareholder and that one transaction and of itself increased our free cash flow per share by 11% in 2025 and 2026. And so we’re focused on that as we thought about our debt covenants and our baskets, where we’re doing all the refinancing, we had a keen focus on how do we make sure that we’ve got improvements in those areas to where we can continue doing what we’ve been executing on.

Michael Sullivan: Very helpful. Thank you very much.

Terry Nutt: Thanks Michael.

Mac McFarland: Thanks Michael.

Operator: Next question comes from Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open.

Shar Pourreza: Hey guys. Hey Mac.

Mac McFarland: Hey Shar.

Shar Pourreza: Just any views on the backdrop for resource adequacy legislation in Pennsylvania? I guess what do you expect out of the legislator at this point? Is something kind of regulated or quasi-regulated like PPA is still possible as we head into what seems to be an active March in Pennsylvania? Can you strike a deal with the wireless players? Are you in discussions with them? Just a little bit of elaboration on the resource side.

Mac McFarland: Yes. So, look, I think — we’ve had the opportunity to have conversations with the governor as well as his staff, and I think he’s — Governor Shapiro in Pennsylvania, keenly in tune with making sure that there is resource adequacy, that there is economic development associated with data center growth, balanced with making sure that there is consumer protections in price. And that’s why we put forward the collar, if you will, the cap on the floor on the capacity auctions, which we did file in support of recently, FYI. And I think that that’s a near-term fix. I think we’ve got to get the capacity markets right in the long-term to incentivize new generation. And I think there is discussions going afoot, Shar, as you mentioned, about is there an opportunity to think about contracting for load through the local utilities.

In general, I think that idea makes a lot of sense, and it makes a lot of sense for an energy export state like Pennsylvania. I think the governor is interested in continuing to be an energy export state and supportive of that and wants to see new generation brought to bear. And those are early days in that discussion. With respect to the reregulation I will say this. The markets have worked. The markets have worked bringing tens of thousands of megawatts of generation, both conventional gas-fired generation, as well as renewables into the market. And I think we need to not have necessarily knee-jerk reactions of reregulation. I don’t find that to be the most economic form of incentivizing generation. But some form of longer-term contracts by the load-serving entities could be an interesting idea.

But it’s early days and there’s not — the devil is always in the detail on ideas like that, and you’ve got to let them flesh out, and that’s very early. But I don’t think there’s a huge appetite for reregulation. And I think that people are supportive of the markets and what it’s brought from lowering consumer costs over time for the past decade. For the past decade, energy and capacity prices in our zone have been flat on a nominal basis, which means on a real basis, they’ve actually declined 25% to 30% over the past 10 years. And this $270 Brent versus the $50 to $100 at most over the last decade, maybe a little higher in the very first part of that decade. That’s inclusive of what I’m saying here that energy and capacity has been flat. So we need to find the right mix here, and it’s an interesting idea, but it’s early days there, Shar.

Terry Nutt: On the long-term contracts.

Shar Pourreza: And then is Michigan kind of that proxy as you guys are thinking about or having discussions around long-term contracts, is structure with like Michigan where you have a longer-term PPA? The wireless companies can earn on the PPA? Is that kind of the benchmark? Or is there something else we should be thinking about?

Mac McFarland: Look, I’ll profess that I don’t know Michigan. And so it’s hard for me to use that as a benchmark, Shar. But if you’re saying that they go out and contract for capacity resources for a longer period of time and use that to serve provider of last resort, or the backstop for serving customers, then yes, that would be the benchmark. It’s also quasi to sort of self-scheduling, which is what Dominion does inside of PJM, where they have their own supply and their own — but it’s not the supply, in this case, of the transmission owners. That supply would be coming from the generation owners and the transmission owners would then be buying it in self-scheduling.

Shar Pourreza: Got it. Okay.

Mac McFarland: But it’s very early in those discussions, like we’re now — you peel the onion so far back, there’s no more onion.

Shar Pourreza: Got it. Got it. And then just lastly, just back a lot of focus this week on additionality in light of some of your peers. Any just updated thoughts on your own development program? Are you looking at turbine slots or projects at this point? Thanks guys. Appreciate it.

Mac McFarland: Look, we’re — so first of all, what are we looking at? We’re looking at how can we get more megawatts from our existing fleet? Are there potential upgrades? Can we go recoup some of the megawatts that may be lost on certain designs across our fleet? What can we add by upgrading, for example, at lower mount vessel? And those are megawatts. And I think that that’s really what’s going to fill the near-term. So, if I think about resource adequacy, I think about it in sort of three phases. You’ve got the near-term, midterm and long-term. And in the near-term, we’ve got to get it right balancing load and getting the most out of what’s existing because new development isn’t going to hit the grid until very late this decade if not into the 2030s.

So we’re focused on what can we do to provide more megawatts and keep existing megawatts around. Brunner, Brandon Shores through the RMR. What can we do at Keystone and [indiscernible] , the owners are having discussions there. So that’s what we’re focused on. With respect to longer term and development, there — I do believe, and I’ve said this, I think — or we’ve said this, at least for the past 6 months, maybe possibly longer, that gas is going to have to be the solution in that midterm, in that second of — the trimesters, if you will. And that — but it’s going to come online around 2030. But I think what’s going to happen there is you’re going to have to see people sign up for longer-term contracts. And I do think that eventually, what you’ll see, if you want to call it additionality, I don’t know.

But I think you’ll see people look to how do we contract for assets to bring new generation to bear. And that’s how I think additionality gets solved. I think the whole concept of taking any particular load and calling it out and saying it’s got to bring its own generation is really a false narrative. And the fact that, that doesn’t happen with anything that connects to the grid. You can go plug a server into a wall outlet right now, call that front of the meter, and it doesn’t need to bring its new generation. So I don’t think we should look at data centers, in particular, as this one-off load that needs to bring additionality. That’s not the way to solve this. What we need to do is provide the right incentives to bring new generation to bear.

Shar Pourreza: Got it. Super helpful as always Mac. Thank you so much. Appreciate it.

Operator: Our next question comes from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Jeremy Tonet: Hi good afternoon.

Mac McFarland: Hey Jeremy, how are you doing?

Jeremy Tonet: Good. Looking forward to 2025 here, EBITDA. Just wondering if you add up the new PTCs, the RMR payments and PJM capacity payments that are bracketed, roughly what percentage of your forward EBITDA do you see you have like full visibility line of sight at this point?

Terry Nutt: So, Jeremy, I think when you look at those, you take capacity, the AWS contracts, I would add in there, our hedge profile is as well. We’ve got a significant amount of 2025 margin bracketed. I think, obviously, as we move forward in time and the AWS contract ramps up, and then also in the fact that you’ve got this floor and ceiling now on capacity markets for a few years, that even gives us more trajectory for a range of outcomes when we think about the upcoming years. And so a pretty significant portion. I mean, off the top of my head is well north of — if you exclude the hedges, you’re north of 40% of sort of locked in for 2025. And obviously, when you include the hedges as well, you’re going to be upwards of 90%.

Mac McFarland: And I think, just to add to what Terry said, if you look at where the PTC is right — the pricing sort of mark-to-market of our portfolio versus coming off of Susquehanna versus the PTC, the PTC is out of the money. So, we view that when we look at it and think about our hedging strategy, we look at that as a put option that we have — or a floor by which provides those cash flows, but we’re in excess of that right now is what I’m saying in the market if we just run those megawatts to market.

Jeremy Tonet: Got it. That’s helpful there. And there’s been a lot of, I guess, talk in the marketplace, a lot of concern with some that — as far as what the hyperscalers are doing out there, I’m understanding that commercial discussions are sensitive to a lot of factors out there. But how do you feel about the pace of hyperscaler, I guess, spend on AI at this point in how that impacts you guys going forward?

Mac McFarland: So, look, I mentioned this that there’s been a lot of news out there in the market in some of my opening remarks, and it’s interesting to see, and I call the market fickle because it’s interesting to see how the markets react to this. I think that we are early innings of the AI boom and that demand is going to possibly move around but the demand is there. We are seeing no signs of slowing, seeing CapEx plans being announced. You see the NVIDIA announcements. And I can tell you anecdotally, from what we see at our site, development continues on the campus and its full steam ahead. So, we’re excited about where things are. And the news that comes out in both directions, I think generally, the demand is up and to the right and hasn’t shown any signs of slowing.

Jeremy Tonet: Got it. That’s helpful. And one last one, if I could. Just as far as the market being fickle here, it seems like there’s debate with traditional utilities getting more competitive in landing data centers here, and then you have the backdrop of the regulatory items as you talked about in PJM. Just wondering how you think about the competitive market positioning at this point given the considerations as you outlined there?

Mac McFarland: Right. Well, look, they’re going to — data centers will be in the competitive markets. I think you’re going to see announcements all over the country, and some of those markets are going to be regulated. And I think that if you look at it, again, I think we’re in a different situation overall because we’re electrifying a campus right now. That’s the speed to market that we could provide. I think that the inbounds that we’ve seen, and Cole can jump in here, the inbounds that we’ve seen across our fleet and the opportunities to explore additional haven’t stopped, and it continues. I think that there’s demand out there, and it’s going to find its way into PJM. If you look at where we are, it was a speed to market of being able to connect.

I think you’ve seen PPL say that they have the ability to provide additional speed. They submitted their large load into PJM late last year, showing thousands of megawatts of backlog that they can connect quickly. And if you look at where PJM is, particularly where we are in PJM, and where Pennsylvania sits, it sits right there where you can — between Northern Virginia and the load centers in the Northeast, and that’s an optimal space that they have to be. But if you’re a hyperscaler, I totally understand it. If they’re all looking to build 30 gigs of data center by X date, they’re going to have to diversify across the country. So when we see those announcements, do we want them to be our announcement? Sure. But do we understand that there’s going to be diversification by the hyperscalers?

Absolutely. But we like our position and continue to like our position. Cole?

Cole Muller: Yes. As Mac said, we’ve seen significant interest in other opportunities outside of what we’ve already announced here from a variety of different types of data center operators and end users. And look, as Mac said, some of these opportunities are going to find their needs are met in the regulated markets, some in the competitive markets. And I’ll go back to what we talked about back in our Investor Day back in September. This is well before the FERC ISA issues came up that there’s different constructs for different counterparties, right? The kind of the all-of-the-above approach. And whether that’s behind the meter like we do at Susquehanna, or is that a front of the meter solution? Or is there some kind of hybrid solution to unlock more megawatts, either at Susquehanna or across our gas fleet.

We have already been looking at those anticipating and has been kind of proven out in our discussions with different counterparties that some like one solution and others like a different solution. And so we’re excited about the fleet we have and the opportunities ahead.

Mac McFarland: Yes, I think maybe a little inside baseball here, but like I said, it was 363 days ago that we signed in ink, the AWS deal. And I think it was 362 days ago that I said to Cole, how are we going to do this and do it differently across the fleet. And we’ve been working on it since that time. And there’s a lot of different solutions, whether it be behind the meter, front of the meter, or everything in between, which is co-located grid back up and we’ve been thinking through all those solutions and having discussions about them and how they might fit. And we just continue to press forward on that.

Jeremy Tonet: Got it. That’s very helpful there. So, recapping Talen, very well-positioned with speed to market to capitalize there on a trend that is not abating with a lot of visibility to cash flow this year. Sounds good. Thank you.

Mac McFarland: Well said.

Operator: Our next question comes from Angie Storozynski with Seaport. Your line is open.

Angie Storozynski: Hey guys. It’s been a long day. We’re starting to recap.

Mac McFarland: How are you? Thanks for sticking with us and getting on the call.

Angie Storozynski: Thank you. So, I mean, look, I mean you were clearly getting anxious. You have all of the optionality that you can think of, or we can think of. You could potentially just strike on some of the meter deals overnight, seemingly happy, at least that’s from our vantage point. You are surrounded by transmission lines and yet you’re not announcing anything. So, why is that? And again, I understand it takes time, as you just pointed out, it’s been a year. We’ve had some issues with FERC, that’s for sure. But again, it almost feels like there is some disconnect in the PPL zone from what we’re hearing from PPL and from — and the lack of announcements that we’re hearing from you. So, again, what are you waiting for?

And as you sit today, what is the timeline? Do you need the whole procedure at FERC to basically continue? So, are we in this waiting game until the end of this year? Are we thinking that something will come out from the PJM filing within the next 30 days? Do you want to wait? I mean, again, at some point, this time to power benefits will go away, no? So, isn’t that in your best interest to sign these contracts while the demand is there?

Mac McFarland: That was a lot of a question. But I appreciate it, Angie. Look, I don’t — you’re asking a question if we’re waiting on regulatory uncertainty. And as I said in the early comments, we’re not in the same position. We’re not waiting on regulatory certainty for anything. We’re executing under our current contract, first-of-its-kind contract, we’re electrifying the site receiving revenues, doing all of those things, working with AWS on getting that going. And we have a ISA that allows us two years’ worth of time on that regulatory — with regulatory certainty, okay, because we have that. And so we’re pushing forward. We’re looking at all of our alternatives commercially. And as I’ve said in the past, and I know that sometimes this doesn’t satiate desires of people but we work on things.

And when we get things done, we’re willing to announce them. But at the same time, we don’t talk about our commercial negotiations or what we’re doing in the public. And so I get — and I totally understand that people are looking at the time, I think that Talen is differently positioned in that we’re acting under a current contract that allows us time by which to have ongoing conversations. Cole?

Cole Muller: Yes, I mean, as Mac said, we obviously announced the deal, and let’s not forget, we spent a good part of the next six months after that deal perfecting it, right? We had an escrow that had to get released in August. A lot of zoning milestones and other permitting that had to happen there. Obviously, we can walk and chew gum and we’ve been working on some other opportunities. The FERC ISA rejection on November 1st, obviously changed what some of those configurations might look like in terms of speed, and it take two to get to a deal. And our counterparties have to figure out what’s right for them. Do they want to move faster and move to a different solution? And so we’ve been working through those. As Mac says, when we have something to announce, you’ll be the first to know.

Mac McFarland: I don’t think, Angie, that the — not announcing a deal across the industry, I’m speaking industry-wide here, is a sign that there’s a lack of appetite. I just think that there is an appetite and it will take time. I don’t think that, that time is 2027, 2028 by any means, or 2026. I think that there’s time to get things done, and we have time under the current contract. We we’re running two-pronged, right, which is executing under our current contract to get the campus up and running. And like I said, it is up. It is getting up and running right now. And we’re excited about that, and we continue to execute on that. And that gives us some ability to do — look at other deals and do the right deals, not just any deal.

Angie Storozynski: Okay. Can I push back a little bit? As always. How about the gas plants? I mean I understand that there is some uncertainty around the structure surrounding the colocation or whatever connection to the data center at Susquehanna. But wouldn’t gas plants be a bit more straightforward? I mean those could be in front of the meter, those could be just regular commercial arrangements, and yet we haven’t heard anything on that front either?

Cole Muller: Yes, Angie that’s a great question. Look, I mean, as I said earlier, I think Mac did as well, we’re looking at a number of opportunities across our fleet. Obviously, we have one nuke. So that means the rest of our fleet pretty much is the gas units. And look, we’ve seen increased interest even in the last three or four months on specific deals around a number of our assets there. And we have some attractive sites, we believe, sites that have ample land, more than 2,000 acres in some cases, surrounding the plant. We have good interconnections, as you mentioned, the transmission, access to water and just the overall location. And it’s really about what does the counterparty want? What’s right for Talen? And what’s the right long-term solution, and we’re working through that process.

Mac McFarland: Actually say interest has picked up. quite frankly, on gas. It’s just gas deals, Angie, as we’ve discussed in the past, I’ve always said I think gas deals are what’s going to fill the gap. There’s nuclear deals, which have a carbon-free aspect to them, but gas is going to have to fill the gap. And if you look at so-called regulatory — regulated deals or vertically integrated deals that have been announced that — take the one in Louisiana, it’s been around building new gas plants. And that gets to additionality, whatever. But it’s around a gas portfolio. And I think that people are looking for that. And I think that those are coming, they’re just not here yet.

Angie Storozynski: That’s right. Thank you.

Operator: Our next question comes from Nick Amicucci with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Durgesh Chopra: Hey guys. It’s actually Durgesh. How are you?

Mac McFarland: Durgesh, its Mac, how are you?

Durgesh Chopra: Good discussion. Excellent. Thank you, Mac. All my other questions have been answered. Maybe just one quick clarification. As we think about 2025 and 2026 guidance, how does the recent RMR agreements, how does that factor into your numbers? Would those be upside if approved? Or how should we think about that? thank you.

Terry Nutt: Hey Durgesh, it’s Terry. So, when we put those ranges out, we had an assumption around the RMR arrangement. It’s within our range. So, it’s included in those guides that we have out there.

Durgesh Chopra: Okay, perfect. That’s all I had. Thank you.

Terry Nutt: Thanks Durgesh.

Operator: Our next question comes from Brinny Singh of Bank of America. Your line is open.

Brinny Singh: Hi guys. Brinny Singh here for Ross Fowler.

Mac McFarland: Hey Brinny, how are you?

Brinny Singh: I just had a quick question about the RMR situation at FERC. So, I’m just curious kind of do you see like any — I saw that the Maryland People Council filed like something in protest and Christie’s comments on consumer rates. Do you kind of see any issues with that process? And can that be held out like longer so you wouldn’t get the revenues, I guess, do you have any clarity there?

Mac McFarland: Yes, Brinny, let me start and maybe John, General Counsel, Wander, can jump in. Look, first, I’m glad you asked about the RMR because it’s something that’s been done between our calls here and something that we filed and something that we’re excited about because we’re able to reach a settlement with all the major stakeholders, including FERC staff as well as the Maryland PSC, and have the support to do that. And we’re excited about the ability to continue to provide grid reliability in Baltimore and PJM specifically, so — and to do our part in that. With respect to the process, I’ll let John jump in, in a sec, but I think it’s key to remember that the FERC, which approved the PJM auction rules to move forward in July for 2026, 2027 as part of that, what’s included is that these RMR units are in that auction set of rules, they’re being bid in at zero effectively and as a resource.

But in order for that auction to go forward, this RMR has to be put in place, and we’ve been fairly clear about that from the beginning. John, anything you would add on that?

John Wander: Thanks Mac. No, Brinny not very much to add to that, really. I’ll give you a couple of just sort of dates on it. May 1 is the day we’ve asked FERC to approve the settlement by that date. If it’s not resolved by the time the RMR is supposed to start, we’ll have the ability to run the plant using these financial agreements until FERC does approve it. And then there’s a true-up at FERC does something to it later down the road. But we don’t expect that because of the things Mac outlined. We think that the number of stakeholders who support it and have filed in support of it, and the nature of those stakeholders, the parties we are going to pay for it are all on board with the settlement because it brings reliability and to make sure that Baltimore continues to get heat in the winter and lights at nighttime.

Brinny Singh: That makes sense. Thank you guys.

Operator: Our next question comes from Craig Shere with Tuohy Brothers Investment Research. Your line is open.

Craig Shere: Good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question.

Mac McFarland: Hey Craig, how are you doing?

Craig Shere: Good. So, I want to dig a bit more into Angie’s gas-fired, Michael’s growth investment, and Shar’s additionality questions. So, simply put, in light of the recent NRG and Williams Industry News, would you say that it’s fair to say that to get hyperscaler attention for a long-term gas-powered solution, you have to be deploying notable nuke capacity? And if that is the case, what kind of return threshold would you be looking at to incentivize a Talen move in that direction given your return of capital focus?

Mac McFarland: There’s a lot in that question, Craig, as the sort of like returns analysis and things of that nature, it would have to be a longer-term contract. But maybe just a couple of comments with respect to the framing of the question. Look, the NRG announcement, I think, is directionally — in the right direction. I think that the — there’s two separate pieces to it. The first piece of it was the part that addresses additionality. Our understanding is just reading is that the LOIs with the two different data center providers are not — they’re an existing generation or using just existing generation, not bringing additionality. So, there’s two components to that piece there. I do think that bringing new generation, as I said, is in that midterm, not the near-term, and I think that’s why you probably saw them parse that.

I don’t know. I haven’t spoken to them. I’m just reading on what I saw, which was I think it’s good for the industry to keep advancing the ability to power data centers. But I think for us to invest in that, we would have to see something that provided a contract with — I’m not ready to put a number on it. I don’t think Terry is ready to put a number on it. But like a number that provides an adequate return that’s above and yields better than our free cash flow yield of buying our stock back, which is always the benchmark as I mentioned. But it wouldn’t just be on a sort of 1-year time frame. It would be over a longer-term time frame that had a longer-term contract with a good credit on the other side. I think that we have a different position being a long-only generator.

I think you need to do that as part of our portfolio because I don’t think people want to take single asset risk. And we have the ability to offer that because I think those deals will more than likely look like either a co-located deal with grid backup, or a front of the meter deal that supports that build. But if that unit is lost, you’re going to have to provide it from somewhere else in your portfolio. We’re excited about the opportunity to have a portfolio. A flexible portfolio of assets that could backstop going along with new generation. And so that’s how we see it playing out for us. Is it a better investment than buying our stock back? Does it have a good long-term offtake agreement? And can we put it in a portfolio and provide an overall solution as well as possibly green it up with environmental credits and the like in order to provide effectively a C&I front of the meter deal.

So, that’s how we view it.

Craig Shere: That’s helpful. And finally, just on guidance. I mean it’s obviously the start of the year, wasn’t expecting any major changes, but — but there are some positive things. I mean, the opening comments talked about the sustained tight multiyear supply-demand outlook. But you also have the Maryland RMR settlement and I think your original guidance was based on flat capacity markets versus that step up in the 2025, 2026 auction. But now it looks like that will probably move from 270-ish to close to that 325 cap, at least for the next auction. So, is it fair to say that within the guidance range, that things are leaning towards the top half at this point?

Mac McFarland: Terry and I got together before this call, and we looked at each other and said to each other, don’t you do it? And Terry and I have been working together for — I don’t know a long time. But look, as part of normal course, it’s just not customary in our opinion, to update guidance for 2025 in — not even at the end of the first quarter. And so later in the year, we’ll provide an update on that. I think the ranges are inclusive of commodity changes, upside and downside, RMRs are anticipated. I think the capacity for 2025, 2026 was put into that number. And as we go through the year, we’re off to a good start. There’s no — we’re off to a good start. But it’s a four-quarter gain to provide full year results, and we’re just not going to change guidance at this point in time.

And our 2026 outlook, again, if you look at the markets, the markets have moved up. I think if we — during the cold weather event. I’m looking at Chris Morice, our Chief Commercial Officer. I mean, the market was well bid in the first part of this year in the term market, and that’s come off a little bit. But the markets are generally trending up, and we’re starting to see load manifest itself. And so if you look at our hedge position, which is in the appendix, we have the ability to participate in that. And that commodity sensitivity is encompassed in those ranges. And so we’ll provide more specific update to that. We’re just not going to do that at this point in time.

Terry Nutt: Yes. Craig, I mean, you should expect that, obviously, as we move forward, we’ll narrow and adjust guidance accordingly. But as Mac said, we’re two months into the year. So, we’ll update as we move forward.

Craig Shere: Thank you.

Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the Q&A portion of today’s conference. I’d like to turn the call back over to Mac for any closing comments.

Mac McFarland: Great. Thank you, Kevin, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today and your continued support and interest in Talen. Have a great day.

Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today’s presentation. You may now disconnect and have a wonderful day.